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on April 7, 2014
This book isn't just for upcoming college students, it really should be read by everyone, because it breaks down what the future (most likely) will hold, if it continues the path we're on. I'm recommending this book particularly for college students, so they understand what degrees they should major in, rather than waste their time and money. How do you plan to pay off all those student loans if you don't have a job? (And just an FYI, student loans are with you until the day you die, so once you have them, they won't go away...ever.) The phenomenal depiction this book guides you through at what lies around the corner (5, 10, 20+ years from now), will make you want more. It doesn't just let you know a robot(s) WILL take your job over, or the power of Virtual Reality (or Augmented Reality), or even that Google's autonomous cars will one day only occupy the roads - take a moment to fathom that children being born right now most likely will never learn how to drive a car because a Google car will do it for them, and there will be no point to learn how - rather it suggests ideas (actually devoting 3 entire chapters to it) at what we should do RIGHT NOW in order for us to have a enjoyable future and life ahead. We CAN have an amazing future, or we can be miserable, but we, as a people, have to decide today! Because as the authors illustrate to us, everyday something amazing pops up that were once thought of as science fiction, becoming our "normal" reality. The second machine age is here, and it is going to change everything!
The Second Machine Age Work Progress And Prosperity In A Time of Brilliant Technologies by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee i
on January 29, 2015
From time to time one reads a book that is important. The Second Machine Age Work Progress And Prosperity In A Time of Brilliant Technologies by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee is important. In the authors’ view, the confluence of falling technology costs, increased computer processing power, cheap sensors and the quality and ubiquity of networks, are ushering in a revolution equally as potent and far-reaching as the Industrial Revolution.
Drawing parallels to the effect on civilization of the Industrial evolution, and how long its subsequent impact has continued, they see brilliant technologies in the early stage of changing about everything. They provide a historical context on the growth in living standards, starting with the domestication of the horse, development of agriculture, which led to cities, afforded great armies and so on. Things really didn’t advance much from there until the steam engine was perfected, which created factories, mass transit, electrification and essentially modern life.
They support the case that while innovation drives productivity, it takes time for innovation to be adopted, widespread and then subsequent advancements to leverage combinations of innovations.
The authors identify how those new combinations are occurring. The new revolution starts with the difference in digital goods to traditional goods. Digital goods can be endlessly copied at a cost that is nearly zero. And falling costs combined with improving power is enabling machines to do things now that researchers weren’t projecting to happen until far into the future – e.g.-Watson beating anyone at chess; driverless cars and Siri.
And like the Industrial Revolution, there will be sharp winners and losers. Just as motorized looms destroyed jobs in textiles; robots, speech-activated call processing, and tax software replace factory and warehouse workers, call center agents and accountants. Digital downloads replace the CD and reduce musicians income. The authors are concerned that the job loss affect may be longer lasting and more far reaching with this revolution than the Industrial. In the Industrial Revolution, farmworkers displaced by tractors, threshers and combines found work in factories. They make an interesting argument that digitalization makes it possible for everyone to have the best. An example they use is that if one bricklayer can lay X bricks per hour, that doesn’t mean that someone won’t hire the second best bricklayer who can only achieve .9X; perhaps at a slightly lower wage. In the world of digital goods, in some fields everyone worldwide has access to the single best, eliminating work for second and third place. Expanding that argument, in many fields one only had access to providers in one’s area-town, city etc., but in the digital realm one has instant global access. While they foresee a variety of new jobs being created, they find it difficult to envision where an equivalent number of jobs will be created. Indeed, they pin some of the failure of total employment to return to pre-2008 levels on the widespread adoption of technology reducing staffing requirements.
They cover the types of jobs they see at most and least risk in the race against the machine. More importantly they cover skills and education needed to compete in the future. I hesitate to call out any chapter as particularly informative or intellectually challenging; they are all impressive. The authors conclude with policy recommendations. Part of the discussion made me nervous; I feared they were heading for a policy recommendation of guaranteed income, or extremely high tax rates on the successful. Instead, they rallied to a defense of work and its importance [They provide a good example of two communities, one where employment was high even if wages were low vs. same income levels from welfare-type programs but low employment. The latter area was blighted].
They conclude with a series of policy recommendations and, as they label it, wild idea s. One is a national mutual fund to make sure everyone has, as one of my bosses used to say, a piece of the rock. Let me provide my twist to their national mutual fund wild idea. The U.S. needs to invest the funds that come into Social Security. Now, before someone’s hair catches on fire, I didn’t say “privatize”. (I agree in some small way with Presidential candidate Al Gore’s “lock box” hypothesis). Many states have excellently run pension funds for state employees. (Some of those pension funds may be underfunded, but that isn’t the managers’ fault). Leading examples include Calpers in CA, Wisconsin Teachers and Texas Teachers. What I am talking about is funding Social Security, not privatizing it. It will take a very long term view – fifty or more years. If two percent of the incoming funds into Social Security were invested in the first year, and then increased by an additional two percent each subsequent year, in fifty years the trust would be backed by actual assets.
As with any investment program, diversification would be important. Our funds should go in to timberland, oil and gas, stocks, bonds, apartment houses, raw land, shopping centers and the like. At that point, every American would be a capitalist, and an owner of the capital deployed in these new technologies.
This is an important book, highlighting topics that affect business, government, education, labor, and personal skills development.
Highly recommended.
Drawing parallels to the effect on civilization of the Industrial evolution, and how long its subsequent impact has continued, they see brilliant technologies in the early stage of changing about everything. They provide a historical context on the growth in living standards, starting with the domestication of the horse, development of agriculture, which led to cities, afforded great armies and so on. Things really didn’t advance much from there until the steam engine was perfected, which created factories, mass transit, electrification and essentially modern life.
They support the case that while innovation drives productivity, it takes time for innovation to be adopted, widespread and then subsequent advancements to leverage combinations of innovations.
The authors identify how those new combinations are occurring. The new revolution starts with the difference in digital goods to traditional goods. Digital goods can be endlessly copied at a cost that is nearly zero. And falling costs combined with improving power is enabling machines to do things now that researchers weren’t projecting to happen until far into the future – e.g.-Watson beating anyone at chess; driverless cars and Siri.
And like the Industrial Revolution, there will be sharp winners and losers. Just as motorized looms destroyed jobs in textiles; robots, speech-activated call processing, and tax software replace factory and warehouse workers, call center agents and accountants. Digital downloads replace the CD and reduce musicians income. The authors are concerned that the job loss affect may be longer lasting and more far reaching with this revolution than the Industrial. In the Industrial Revolution, farmworkers displaced by tractors, threshers and combines found work in factories. They make an interesting argument that digitalization makes it possible for everyone to have the best. An example they use is that if one bricklayer can lay X bricks per hour, that doesn’t mean that someone won’t hire the second best bricklayer who can only achieve .9X; perhaps at a slightly lower wage. In the world of digital goods, in some fields everyone worldwide has access to the single best, eliminating work for second and third place. Expanding that argument, in many fields one only had access to providers in one’s area-town, city etc., but in the digital realm one has instant global access. While they foresee a variety of new jobs being created, they find it difficult to envision where an equivalent number of jobs will be created. Indeed, they pin some of the failure of total employment to return to pre-2008 levels on the widespread adoption of technology reducing staffing requirements.
They cover the types of jobs they see at most and least risk in the race against the machine. More importantly they cover skills and education needed to compete in the future. I hesitate to call out any chapter as particularly informative or intellectually challenging; they are all impressive. The authors conclude with policy recommendations. Part of the discussion made me nervous; I feared they were heading for a policy recommendation of guaranteed income, or extremely high tax rates on the successful. Instead, they rallied to a defense of work and its importance [They provide a good example of two communities, one where employment was high even if wages were low vs. same income levels from welfare-type programs but low employment. The latter area was blighted].
They conclude with a series of policy recommendations and, as they label it, wild idea s. One is a national mutual fund to make sure everyone has, as one of my bosses used to say, a piece of the rock. Let me provide my twist to their national mutual fund wild idea. The U.S. needs to invest the funds that come into Social Security. Now, before someone’s hair catches on fire, I didn’t say “privatize”. (I agree in some small way with Presidential candidate Al Gore’s “lock box” hypothesis). Many states have excellently run pension funds for state employees. (Some of those pension funds may be underfunded, but that isn’t the managers’ fault). Leading examples include Calpers in CA, Wisconsin Teachers and Texas Teachers. What I am talking about is funding Social Security, not privatizing it. It will take a very long term view – fifty or more years. If two percent of the incoming funds into Social Security were invested in the first year, and then increased by an additional two percent each subsequent year, in fifty years the trust would be backed by actual assets.
As with any investment program, diversification would be important. Our funds should go in to timberland, oil and gas, stocks, bonds, apartment houses, raw land, shopping centers and the like. At that point, every American would be a capitalist, and an owner of the capital deployed in these new technologies.
This is an important book, highlighting topics that affect business, government, education, labor, and personal skills development.
Highly recommended.
on March 15, 2017
Great coverage of technology and how it (especially automation) is affecting the economy. Also with some suggestions on solutions. Very important read.
on March 19, 2017
I would rate this book outstanding. Great on digital and automation stories. 2013 stuff still relevant. Specifically the explanation of exponential, digital and combinatorial. Explanation on the kind of work that is being done. Routine and non routine jobs plus the cognitive and Manual job. As an automation evangelist I loved this book.
on May 31, 2015
While the book started with lots of highly interesting facts and stories about technology and technology companies, it diverged unexpectedly into a learning opportunity about economics. While I find economics difficult to understand, the book didn't get too far into the weeds and disinterest me. I also greatly enjoyed an actual list of things that can be done to take full value of the 2nd Machine age, and included in that, a list of imperatives our country needs to concentrate on to keep us on top (else China will be).
on March 17, 2015
A great book that analyzes the evolution of the computer industry and the information age as a whole. What makes this a great and very interesting reading is that it is not only a historical review of what has happened along the evolution of men and their relationship with all the tools and machines that have been a key ingredient to augment our productivity and well being as a species. The book analyzes from a political, sociological, demographical, technological, and economical point of view how our relationship with different machines and tools have changed our way of living and working everyday. It also covers how technology is affecting our way we relate to each other and also how every person depending on which generation they were born and raised (Baby Boomer, a Gen X or a Millenial) reacts to this changes. It also uncovers the realities that we are living as a globalized society and the fact that the benefits as well as the problems that the new information age is bringing to us are suffered not only in America but also at many other of the developing countries around the world incluiding China.
In essence a great book with a lot of thinking material.
In essence a great book with a lot of thinking material.
on June 29, 2014
The authors begin by describing today's computer age on a par with real revolutions such as the discovery of agriculture around 10,000 years ago which changed human life more than anything else. They call computerization the second machine age but I don't think it even warrants this title.
The first machine age of course is the industrial revolution triggered by the perfecting of the steam engine by James Watt around 1775. I believe the second machine age started with the electrification of society begun around 1879 when Thomas Edison perfected the light bulb. The computer age is basically a continuation of this trend and hardly the beginning of a new revolution.
When my grandmother was born there was no electricity and there were no cars, planes, labor-saving appliances, radios, or televisions. When she died all of these products of electrification existed and had changed life dramatically. The main thing that has changed life since I was born is television. Computers have had nowhere near the same effect.
The authors continue in the first half of this book with an unmitigated celebration of computerization describing all the wonderful gadgets it has created. What the authors have missed is that computerization is at best a necessary evil to process the transactions for a growing population but which has caused tremendous psychological stress.
I can remember when stress was an esoteric engineering term but now it is used to describe everyday life in a computerized society as computers force people to work harder by making more and more decisions. Examples of this stress include dealing with a menu-driven computerized telephone answering service, speaking to a computer to get customer service, struggling with the latest software "upgrade" at home or work, or spending much of your time at work dealing with tech support. The authors promise all this will get better but the frustration of dealing with computers is increasing.
In the second half the authors suddenly switch emphasis and start describing the problems of computerization but not the psychological ones I have mentioned. Their big concern is the growing gap between rich and poor and they do a pretty job of explaining how this has come about.
The problem is that computers have enabled smaller and smaller companies to do more and more with fewer and fewer workers. Companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook employ only a few thousand workers compared to companies like General Motors, Kodak, and US Steel which used to employ hundreds of thousands. This has resulted in a small technological elite getting richer and richer while the masses get nowhere or fall further behind. Average income has hardly increased since 1973 when the microchip was introduced.
The main solution the authors propose is to increase the federal earned income credit which is basically a welfare payment given through the tax system to low income taxpayers.
The first machine age of course is the industrial revolution triggered by the perfecting of the steam engine by James Watt around 1775. I believe the second machine age started with the electrification of society begun around 1879 when Thomas Edison perfected the light bulb. The computer age is basically a continuation of this trend and hardly the beginning of a new revolution.
When my grandmother was born there was no electricity and there were no cars, planes, labor-saving appliances, radios, or televisions. When she died all of these products of electrification existed and had changed life dramatically. The main thing that has changed life since I was born is television. Computers have had nowhere near the same effect.
The authors continue in the first half of this book with an unmitigated celebration of computerization describing all the wonderful gadgets it has created. What the authors have missed is that computerization is at best a necessary evil to process the transactions for a growing population but which has caused tremendous psychological stress.
I can remember when stress was an esoteric engineering term but now it is used to describe everyday life in a computerized society as computers force people to work harder by making more and more decisions. Examples of this stress include dealing with a menu-driven computerized telephone answering service, speaking to a computer to get customer service, struggling with the latest software "upgrade" at home or work, or spending much of your time at work dealing with tech support. The authors promise all this will get better but the frustration of dealing with computers is increasing.
In the second half the authors suddenly switch emphasis and start describing the problems of computerization but not the psychological ones I have mentioned. Their big concern is the growing gap between rich and poor and they do a pretty job of explaining how this has come about.
The problem is that computers have enabled smaller and smaller companies to do more and more with fewer and fewer workers. Companies like Apple, Google, and Facebook employ only a few thousand workers compared to companies like General Motors, Kodak, and US Steel which used to employ hundreds of thousands. This has resulted in a small technological elite getting richer and richer while the masses get nowhere or fall further behind. Average income has hardly increased since 1973 when the microchip was introduced.
The main solution the authors propose is to increase the federal earned income credit which is basically a welfare payment given through the tax system to low income taxpayers.
on January 1, 2016
I would recommend this book to everyone who works in digital technology (engineers and management alike). If you have never worked in Artificial Intelligence(AI), this book tells you why you should think about it. If you are already working in AI space then this book gives you the big picture of what you are working towards, what are the things to keep in mind while building advanced technologies.
on June 18, 2014
I find myself conflicted about "The Second Machine Age." It is a somewhat interesting, if high level, summary of things we already know if we're at all familiar with the evolution of technology. I found nothing new here, perhaps because I am fairly well read with respect to technology issues, and have thought a bit about them. At the same time, I suspect that most people who would be interested in reading a book of this nature are equally well-versed in its subject matter, and therefore, won't react much differently than I have.
The flip side is that the authors take a long time to state things which are already known, and while they integrate and synthesize the material well, they are clearly not breaking any new ground. What makes the book worse in some respects is the authors' tendency to pepper their tome with a seemingly endless litany of references to this or that academic study, this or that author, or this or that scholarly article. In some cases, they refer to others on numerous occasions, which can become quite tedious. As an Audible.com listener to "The Second Machine Age," this came across as a concerted effort by the authors to legitimize their own book by referencing others whose research and publications could, theoretically, lend credence and validity to "The Second Machine Age."
Bottom line: nothing much new here, albeit well stated, and well narrated.
The flip side is that the authors take a long time to state things which are already known, and while they integrate and synthesize the material well, they are clearly not breaking any new ground. What makes the book worse in some respects is the authors' tendency to pepper their tome with a seemingly endless litany of references to this or that academic study, this or that author, or this or that scholarly article. In some cases, they refer to others on numerous occasions, which can become quite tedious. As an Audible.com listener to "The Second Machine Age," this came across as a concerted effort by the authors to legitimize their own book by referencing others whose research and publications could, theoretically, lend credence and validity to "The Second Machine Age."
Bottom line: nothing much new here, albeit well stated, and well narrated.
