Well, you win some, you lose some. Smith's "Silver Profits in the 80s" is an update of his very successful "Silver Profits in the 70s," and turns out to be as poor an investment guide as his other book was an excellent one. And yet other than a few new chapters on non-governmental intervention into the markets, they are nearly the same book. Both examine silver supply and demand numbers and recounted the government's unsuccessful attempts to manipulate the market. What's the difference?
The investor who has followed silver since the great 1980 bull market will no doubt notice the error, but for those who are new, it's probably best to lay it out: the market itself underwent structural changes that protected it from exactly the kind of breakout Smith expected to occur in 1985.
And yet. And yet. The factor that Smith did not account for - a massive dishoarding on the part of governments and their central banks - can only occur once. Smith's Book remains a valuable study in market dynamics and might yet become proof that if you bet on the inevitable, you'll eventually be right.
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