Bjørn Lomborg is a Danish author and former director of the Danish government's Environmental Assessment Institute (EAI) in Copenhagen.
He wrote in the Preface to this 1998 book, “The idea for this book was born in a bookstore … [in] 1997. I was … leafing through Wired magazine and read an interview with the American economist Julian Simon… He maintained that … Our doomsday conceptions of the environment are not correct. Simon stressed that he used only official statistics, which everyone … can use to check his claims. I was provoked. I’m an old left-wing Greenpeace member… At the same time I teach statistics, and it should therefore be easy for me to check Simon’s sources…. I had never really questioned my own belief in an ever deteriorating environment---and here was Simon, telling me to put my beliefs under the statistical microscope…
“I held a study group of ten of my sharpest students, where we tried to examine Simon thoroughly… And yes, not everything he said was correct, but---contrary to our expectations… a surprisingly large amount of his points stood up to scrutiny… I asked myself why I was so definitely convinced that the environmental situation is bad and ever deteriorating… if I was wrong… I was probably not the only one… one of the leading Danish newspapers… suggested that I write some articles… that gave rise to one of the biggest Danish debates… I am not myself an expert as regards environmental problems. My aim has rather been to give a description of the approaches to the problems… The key idea is that we ought not to let the environmental organizations, business lobbyists or the media be alone in presenting truths and priorities. Rather, we should strive for a careful democratic check on the environmental debate.”
In the first chapter, he explains, “this book plays to our general understanding of the environment: the Litany of our ever deteriorating environment. This is the view of the environment … that confront[s] us each day on television, in the newspapers, in political statements…” (Pg. 3) He notes, “this book has an unusually large number of notes… for me the most important thing is that there is no doubt about the credibility of my sources. For this reason most of the statistics I use come from official sources, which are widely accepted by the majority of people involved in the environmental debate.” (Pg. 30-31) He continues, “My motives for writing this book are neither evil nor covert… democracy functions better if everyone has access to the best possible information. It cannot be in the interest of our society for debate about such a vital issue as the environment to be based more on myth than on truth.” (Pg. 32)
He summarizes, “We are not running out of energy or natural resources. There will be more and more food per head of the world’s population. Fewer and fewer people are starving. In 1900 we lived for an average of 30 years; today we live for 70. According to the UN we have reduced poverty more in the last 50 years than we did in the preceding 500… Global warming… is almost certainly taking place, but the typical cure of early and radical fossil fuel cutbacks is way worse than the original affliction, and moreover its total impact will not pose a devastating problem for our future. Nor will we lose 25-50 percent of all species in our lifetime… Acid rain does not kill the forests, and the air and water around us are becoming less and less polluted… But note carefully … I am saying … that mankind’s lot has VASTLY IMPROVED. This does not, however, mean that everything is GOOD ENOUGH.” (Pg. 4)
He states, “We have been told… that… we can’t feed the world. But… On practically EVERY count, humankind is now better nourished… The proportion of starving people has fallen from 35 percent to 18 percent… There is, however, still a lot to be done … Africa needs to get back on its feet and produce far more food… We have an obligation to ensure that these conditions are improved by means of international cooperation. China is a good example of how this can be done…” (Pg. 67) Later, he adds, “But even Africa is still better off than it was at the beginning of the twentieth century., with better nutrition, higher incomes and better schooling.” (Pg. 87)
He acknowledges, however, that “it is correct that global growth rates in yields have been declining for rice, wheat, and corn, which make up almost 50 percent of the world’s calorie intake.” (Pg. 96) And “Countries such as Nigeria and Madagascar have admittedly lost well over half their original rainforest, and Central America may have lost 50-70 percent. But overall, they are only home to about 5 percent of the world’s tropical forest.” (Pg. 114) He admits, “It is estimated that 43 percent of American energy use is wasted… [and] we could save anywhere from 50 percent to 94 percent of our home energy consumption.” (Pg. 125) Plus, “nuclear power also produces waste materials that remain radioactive for many years… (some beyond 100,000 years)… the use of nuclear power in many countries also poses a potential security problem.” (Pg. 129)
He suggests, “we need to manage water more carefully, price it realistically and accept a movement away from self-reliance in food production in the arid parts of the world… We have sufficient water, but we need to manage it better… We need to stop mining groundwater.” (Pg. 157)
He points out, :in the US, the total number of car miles traveled has more than doubled over the past 30 years… Nevertheless, over the same period emissions have decreased by a third and concentrations much more… air pollution can be---and historically has been---combated and developed in the developed world. There is also good reason to belief that the developing world, following our pattern … will bring down its air pollution.” (Pg. 177)
He observes, “Air pollution has got worse in the developing world, mainly because of the strong economic growth. However, the developing countries are really just making the same tradeoffs as the developed countries made 100-200 years ago… the environment and economic prosperity are not opposing concepts, but rather complementary entities: without adequate environmental protection, growth is undermined, but environmental protection is unaffordable without growth. It is thus reasonable to expect that as the developing countries of the world achieve higher levels of income, they will… opt for and be able to afford an ever cleaner environment.” (Pg. 210)
He notes, “The dramatic loss of biodiversity, expressed in the 40,000 species a year [extinction rate], is a dramatic figure…. It has become part of our environmental Litany. But it … conflicts with both observation and careful modeling. Of course, losing 25-200 percent of all species would be a catastrophe by any standards. However, losing 0.7 percent per 50 years over a limited time span is not a catastrophe for a problem---one of many mankind still needs to solve. Facing these facts is important when we have to make tough choices where to do the most good with our limited resources.” (Pg. 257)
He admits, “The ozone depletion was caused by man. Already in 1974, two researchers … suggested that the so-called chlorofluorocarbons could be breaking down the ozone layer. Much research has later confirmed this basic link… The case of the depleted ozone layer and the solution through restrictive protocols is seen as a success story, in which the world community finally pulled itself together and put the environment before money… However, it is worth pointing out that the implementation of the CFC ban … was actually relatively cheap to find substitutes… and at the same time the advantages were quite clear-cut.” (Pg. 273-274)
He asserts, “Of course we would prefer to be without the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, but the phenomenon is not something we can just wish away. If global warming is coming we must pay the bill---and then the central question is just how small we can keep this bill… The optimal policy … saves us about 5 percent of the total cost of global warming… Global stabilization of CO2 emissions, on the other hand, is fare more costly. In this case the cost will be about $8.5 trillion, or almost twice the cost of global warming itself.” (Pg. 310)
He acknowledges, “The final objection to optimal investment in global warming is that we may want to pay more in order to reduce the risk of an eventual catastrophe. It is actually possible that global warming will lead to other dramatic and chaotic changes in the climate system. Worries have long been expressed about melting the polar ice caps, and especially the West Antarctic Ice Sheet… Nonetheless it can be argued that we are scared enough about the thought of a potential catastrophe to want a reduction of more than the optimal 11 percent—that we are willing to buy a little extra insurance, so to speak.” (Pg. 315-316)
He concludes, “We must take care of the problems, prioritize reasonably, but not worry unduly… mankind’s lot as vastly improved in every significant measurable field and … is likely to continue to do so… Many people are still stuck with the Litany and have a mental image of children growing up with a shortage of food and water, and with pollution, acid rain and global warming. But the image is a mixture of our own prejudices and a lack of analysis. Thus, this is the very message of this book: children born today… will live longer and be healthier, they will get more food, a better education, a higher standard of living ,more leisure time and far more possibilities---without the global environment being destroyed. And that is a beautiful world.” (Pg. 351-352)
Although controversial (among environmentalists, at least), this book will be of great interest to anyone seriously studying environmental issues.
ISBN-13: 978-0521010689
ISBN-10: 9780521010689
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Philip M
A brilliant, powerful book, and a balanced assessment of reality versus hype.
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Tom Wallace
of most interest (and controversy) is his claim that humanity would be economically better off by adapting to climate change rather than trying ...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 22, 2018Verified Purchase
Carno Polo
refreshing approach to the problem of our environment
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A must read especially now.
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