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Stephen Roach on the Next Asia: Opportunities and Challenges for a New Globalization Hardcover – September 22, 2009

4.1 out of 5 stars 7 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"As Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and a renowned economist, Stephen Roach has a solid macroeconomics background, in-depth understanding of the region, rich knowledge of various industries, and an open mind. In this book, Steve vividly describes the changes of Asia -- and the driving forces behind those changes。Furthermore, he brilliantly points out the challenges Asia is facing, as well as its impacts on the global economy. Asia is reshaping the global economy in this post-crisis world, and I believe this book provides us with unique insights as to how this reshaping is playing out."
Dr. Zhu Min, Group Executive Vice President, Bank of China

"Stephen Roach has for many years been a uniquely independent voice among international economic commentators. He was one of the few who warned that the debt-fuelled 'casino' economy was unsustainable. His prophetic warnings came to pass in 2008. In his latest book he issues another warning. Asia's explosive growth has been based on a 'bet' upon deep integration with the global economy. Stephen Roach argues that this growth is unsustainable in the face of the global recession. The region needs comprehensively to re-balance its economic model if it is to maintain its remarkable growth. He warns that this will not be easy. Stephen Roach's book is essential reading for those who hold the comfortable belief that Asia has 'de-coupled' from the world economy."
Prof Peter Nolan, CBE, Sinyi Professor, Judge Business School, and Chair, Development Studies, University of Cambridge, UK

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"Stephen Roach’s prescient collection of insights and analyses, from his many years in Asia as one of the most experienced decoders of China’s political and economic trends, are cogent, valuable, and immensely helpful."
—Henry A. Kissinger
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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 414 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (September 22, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0470446994
  • ISBN-13: 978-0895299512
  • Product Dimensions: 6.2 x 1.3 x 9.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,034,480 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

By Loyd Eskildson HALL OF FAME on October 6, 2009
Format: Hardcover
The book is a collection of essays written by Roach over the past three years reporting how the Asia story has played out to date, and how it looks for the future. Most of the book focuses on China, providing a wealth of background for understanding Roach's recommendations for the U.S. and China, and the direction of China's leadership.

Nearly 80% of China's GDP goes to exports (30%) and fixed investment (50%). Since the early 1990s its per-capita income has increased 5X+. America accounts for about 4.5% of the world's population and about $10 trillion of spending in 2008; China and India together account for 40% of population and only $2.5 trillion on spending. America's economy has grown nearly 4%/year in real consumer demand over the past 15 years - 3X the growth in Japan and Europe. Seventy-two percent of the U.S. GDP in 2007 was consumer spending (a record), falling only to 71% currently.

China's leadership recognizes the need to reduce reliance on exports - partly because of the sagging U.S. and world economies, and partly to reduce the likelihood and severity of any anti-China trade actions by the U.S. Congress (45 such bills were introduced in the U.S. Congress between 2005-07). Other challenges include improving resource consumption efficiencies (eg. cutting oil consumption per unit of GDP by 4%/year - now 2X that of the world average), as well as reducing pollution and environmental degradation. (China's carbon emissions per person are less than 10% that of the U.S.
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Format: Hardcover
This collection of essays has been collected over the years and aggregated into 5 chapters, each containing a subset of the essays associated with the themes. The heart of the book focuses on the global imbalances, the causes, effects and the risks, both political as well as economic that have evolved and need to be dealt with in a coordinated systematic manner.

Much of the literature focuses on several major themes, 1- people cant globalize and decouple, they must be either or. 2 - the trading relationships that have emerged are inherintly unstable. 3 - the instability can be fixed but requires us to look from above at the problem in much greater degree than politicians tend to when they voice local constituencies. The major focus on the imbalance is on the American consumption side and their gross overconsumption to an unheard of degree.

To be precise Stephen Roach talks in depth about the change in economic landscape such that the previous arena of non-tradeable goods have morphed into tradeable, in particular services, due to the internet etc (similar in spirit to freedman's world is flat ideas). The result of this is that there has been wage pressure on developed nations that have created a downward drift barely less than productivity growth such that real wage growth has lagged substantially the growth it would have recieved in a theoretical closed economy. The repurcussions are both backlash at owners of capital who have increased their share of business revenues due to increased bargaining power within the firm due to the more open global labor market. This is both backlash to the distribution of wealth as well as global trade perspectives and the search for a scapegoat (ie providers of the replacement labor in places like china and india).
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Format: Kindle Edition
Let me begin by saying that I have huge respect for Stephen, and his research is thorough, clear and detailed.

I read the sample from amazon - the pagination is weird - characters sometimes overlap one another in the same line, and the embedded charts are next to impossible to read on the Kindle. I would recommend buying the real copy instead, based on my experience with the Kindle sample.
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Format: Paperback
Stephen Roach is a kind of pide piper. He is stating the plain truth for American ears, "an important shift in the gravity of global economic power from the West to the East could well be at hand." Investors whom want to have money with purchasing power in 5 years had better be listening now.
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