James Hansen, the world's most famous climate scientist, is thought by climate contrarians to be part of a liberal conspiracy. But as you'll see below (Chp. 9), he's as independent as he claims -- critical of Republicans for suppressing climate change science, but critical of Democrats for blocking the most important part of the solution. Surprises await readers of any persuasion. The book contains a mix of equal parts politics and science, so a guide to the chapters may be helpful. (For why this book is best on climate science, see my wonkish "comment" below.)
Chp. 1: Dick Cheney's climate task force. The frustrations of politics with a little science tossed in.
Chp. 2: The A-team. Hansen retreats and thinks through climate policy with his students.
Chp. 3: Visit to the White House. He's hopeful, then disappointed. This chapter launches into serious Paleoclimate science and explains the mystery of why the world starts to warm from an ice age before carbon dioxide increases. Fascinating if you like science. Otherwise, skim for interesting tidbits -- ice that would crush "New York City to smithereens," the development of civilization, coastal fishing, and more.
The first big surprise: "It may seem that I am harsh on climate models." He doesn't think they're good at estimating "climate sensitivity." In fact, he says, "Thirty years later [after the National Academy's 1979 estimate], models alone still cannot do much better."
Chp. 4: Back to 1989. Hansen asks for satellite instruments to collect crucial global warming data. No luck.
Chp. 5: A Slippery Slope. In 2003 Hansen writes an article with "extensive criticisms of IPCC" (UN climate science). He is not pleased that the best IPCC model "concluded that the ice sheets would grow as the world became warmer."
Chp. 6: Humanity's Trap. Aerosols are now counteracting carbon but we don't know much about them. A nice graph of solar output and the beginning of the White-House censorship story.
Chp. 7: The Keeling Curve. "Reality contrasts markedly with the impression created by the media." Carbon dioxide is not growing faster than expected by the IPCC scenarios. More on White-House censorship.
Chp. 8: Where Should We Aim? Hansen gets new data and draws "one of the most beautiful curves on the planet," showing how it was far hotter (with no ice) 50 million years ago. From that and more science, he concludes that we must return the atmosphere to 350 ppm.
Chp. 9: An Honest Path. Possibly the book's biggest surprise: "It is extremely irresponsible, in my opinion, to make the assumption that efficiency and renewables are all that will be needed." We will need fast breeder reactors, and fortunately we have "$50 trillion" worth of left-over uranium for fuel.
He blames the Democrats. "Argonne scientists ... were ready to build a demonstration fast-reactor power plant." But in 1994, Bill Clinton announced, "We will terminate unnecessary programs in advanced reactor development." Hansen concludes, "It seems possible that antinuke people, who heavily support the Democratic Party, were being repaid."
He explains his economic proposals for "a rising price on carbon applied at the source" in the form of "fee-and-dividend." "A cap-and-trade agreement will be just as hard to achieve as was the Kyoto Protocol."
Chp. 10: Venus. "If we also burn the tar sands and tar shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."
Chp. 11: Storms of My Grandchildren. Recent anti-coal protest activity, and some science of storms.
In this age of political correctness, right and left, it's a delight to be invited into Hansen's home-spun, un-censored, scientific world. If you appreciate the fresh air, two very different books may be of interest. Carbonomics: How to Fix the Climate and Charge It to OPEC explains why Hansen's refunded carbon tax is a good idea that works, and predicted Copenhagen's failure over a year in advance: "developing countries will not accept internationally set caps." It then explains what to do about it. Sustainable Energy - Without the Hot Air is a fabulous, authoritative book on alternative energy, and provides the back story on the need for carbon capture or nuclear power. Together, the three books cover most of climate-policy related science with almost no overlap.
In summary, this is no journalistic quick read. It's fascinating, not because it's slickly written -- it's certainly not -- but because both James Hansen and his science are fascinating and you get a front row seat as the story unfolds.
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