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Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities Paperback – Illustrated, April 28, 2006

by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal (Author)
4.1 4.1 out of 5 stars 83 ratings
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From terrorist attacks to big money jackpots, Struck by Lightning deconstructs the odds and oddities of chance, examining both the relevant and irreverent role of randomness in our everyday lives. Human beings have long been both fascinated and appalled by randomness. On the one hand, we love the thrill of a surprise party, the unpredictability of a budding romance, or the freedom of not knowing what tomorrow will bring. We are inexplicably delighted by strange coincidences and striking similarities. But we also hate uncertainty's dark side. From cancer to SARS, diseases strike with no apparent pattern. Terrorists attack, airplanes crash, bridges collapse, and we never know if we'll be that one in a million statistic. We are all constantly faced with situations and choices that involve randomness and uncertainty. A basic understanding of the rules of probability theory, applied to real-life circumstances, can help us to make sense of these situations, to avoid unnecessary fear, to seize the opportunities that randomness presents to us, and to actually enjoy the uncertainties we face. The reality is that when it comes to randomness, you can run, but you can't hide. So many aspects of our lives are governed by events that are simply not in our control. In this entertaining yet sophisticated look at the world of probabilities, author Jeffrey Rosenthal-an improbably talented math professor-explains the mechanics of randomness and teaches us how to develop an informed perspective on probability.

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  1. Print length
    270 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Joseph Henry Press
  4. Publication date
    April 28, 2006
  5. Dimensions
    5.25 x 0.75 x 7.75 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0309097347
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0309097345
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Statistics and probability made fun, easy and useful for everyday life? Rosenthal does just that by explaining common uses of statistics (such as polling), demonstrating how probability can lead to better decision making (should you ask your cute co-worker out on a date?) and getting downright silly (chapter nine is a noir mystery). The author maintains that our fear of untoward events can be eased with the logic of probability and knowing how to evaluate what the real odds are of such an event occurring. A multitude of applications of "the Probability Perspective" are laid out: calculating average losses at gambling, deciding which coincidences are truly surprising, understanding studies that show that a new drug reduces fatalities from a given disease, playing silly party games and using uncertainty for one's own benefit. Anecdotes—some personal stories, some universal situations—illustrate ways that the probability perspective can set one's mind at ease and help in navigating all aspects of life. The lighthearted presentation ensures that readers will not feel burdened by all the knowledge they are gaining and the concluding summary—disguised as a final exam—is sure to deliver an A to everyone, which is what Rosenthal deserves for this clever book. (Mar.)
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

About the Author

Jeffrey Rosenthal is a professor in the Department of Statistics at the University of Toronto. Rosenthal received is BS in Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science from the University of Toronto when he was 20 and his PhD in Mathematics from Harvard at 24. He worked as a computer game programmer, a musician, and improvisational comedy performer and has enjoyed flipping coins, rolling dice, and computing probabilities since he was a child.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Joseph Henry Press; Illustrated edition (April 28, 2006)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 270 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0309097347
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0309097345
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 11.2 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.25 x 0.75 x 7.75 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.1 4.1 out of 5 stars 83 ratings

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Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

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Top reviews from the United States

Paul Froehlich
5.0 out of 5 stars Figuring the Odds
Reviewed in the United States on April 29, 2022
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Randomness and uncertainty are fundamental parts of our existence. When making decisions, we usually can’t be certain of the long-term outcome, so we regularly assess the odds or probability of success with one option over another. Knowing the rules of probability theory helps us understand events around us, and to make more accurate assessments.

One part of the theory is that random events tend to occur in bunches. This is called Poisson clumping. What seems like improbable coincidence is just the result of chance when dealing with large numbers.

Some people get assurance, however, by attributing such coincidence to supernatural causes.
Why do casinos always win in the longrun? Rosenthal provides the clearest explanation I’ve seen about how probabilities favor the house. “In every casino, every single betting game is weighted ever so slightly in the house’s favor. The Law of Large Numbers says that if a gambling game is even slightly to your advantage on average, and you play it long enough, you are sure to come out ahead.”

Casinos get the largest share of revenues from slot machines, where customers recover between 85% and 95% of their bet on average. “No matter the game, the odds are always against you.” The longer you play, the less likely luck will be a factor, and the more likely the house will win.

Rosenthal explains the lure of false causations, and how fear of violence rose after 1990 even though the murder rate was declining. He also explains the margin of error so one can evaluate the reliability of opinion polls.

Struck by Lightning looks at the probability of being struck by lightning. This reviewer lives in the country with the world’s second highest lightning fatality rate. Panama ranks second only to Cuba.

The best Monty Hall choice on Let’s Make a Deal isn’t what many believe. Contestants are allowed to choose one of three doors, only one of which has a car behind it. After contestants make the choice, Monty Hall would open a different door without the car. Contestants were then asked if they wanted to stand pat or to choose the remaining door instead. Rosenthal shows why there is a two-thirds chance of winning the car by choosing the remaining door.

Though we may prefer certainty, randomness has benefits. When determining who gets drafted, for example, a random draw by lottery is fairer than handing out exemptions to certain groups. Randomness also provides security for Internet transactions.

This book is readable and interesting, and less like an advanced algebra class, than another book on probability I reviewed, The Improbability Principle. Struck by Lightning helps readers living in a random universe better understand and apply the probability principle. -30-
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Robert R. Depew
5.0 out of 5 stars Fun to read and easy to understand, especially if you're not a math type of person
Reviewed in the United States on November 10, 2008
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It's difficult enough to get a high school student interested in probabilty. It's nearly impossible to get an adult to understand the workings of probability theory. Sometimes I think that if I hear the "Law of Averages" invoked one more time by an aggressive driver or a lottery player, I'll scream. I wish there were some way to teach the average human being about probability.

"Lightning" is a good start. It does not read like a textbook. It presents the ideas behind probability using object lessons and examples that even the dullest layman can relate to. It introduces the concepts first, using concrete examples such as lottery winnings and crime statistics, and then presents the abstract principle behind the concepts, and attaches the proper technical labels to the concepts and the principle.

The author introduces the reader early to the idea of a "Probability Perspective," a new way to look at the world through eyes that understand probability. The author returns constantly to this theme of the Probability Perspective, with the expectation that by the end of the book the reader will understand what is meant by the term, and will have claimed such a perspective as his own.

Some of the chapters can be read independently, and some build on previous chapters. It's most useful to read the book from cover to cover. The final chapter is a carefully disguised "final exam," at the end of which the readers can decide for themselves whether they have acquired a Probability Perspective.

The language of the book is appropriate for a high school senior or a college student, and is easily readable by an adult.

The only problem with the book is not the book itself, but the subject. Most people will judge the book by its cover (or at least by its subject) and, thinking that probability is either boring or difficult to understand, will pass by this book on their way to something with more cachet. They're missing out on a good read.
18 people found this helpful
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Chris M.
4.0 out of 5 stars Excellent Intro to Statistical Concepts
Reviewed in the United States on June 26, 2009
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Jeffrey Rosenthal's book 'Struck by Lightning' provides a fun introduction to statistical concepts without the need for higher math. He makes the reader aware of how various laws of statistics influence our decisions and perceptions - and gives some guidance on how to avoid getting hoodwinked by screaming headlines or too-good-to-be-true sales pitches and offers.

The book is written for the general public and covers a wide range of statistical areas - from game theory and probablities to chaos and randomness - without sounding academic. People already familiar with statistics will find this an entertaining read to see how theory applies to real life, including the interpretation of medical studies, election results and crime statistics.
5 people found this helpful
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You can call me Dave
3.0 out of 5 stars Not impressed.
Reviewed in the United States on December 3, 2018
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Would have been MUCH better with the calculations demonstrated with equations and numbers, instead of just describing them.
2 people found this helpful
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Bryce Reynolds
5.0 out of 5 stars One of the most influential books I have read. ...
Reviewed in the United States on March 10, 2018
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One of the most influential books I have read. It really makes you step back and look at the world differently - makes you look at the world in terms of probabilities. It is a really well explained book and it really makes you think. What it's done for me is make me less nervous, less worried about things that are not in my control and which have an extremely small chance of happening (think airplane crash).
2 people found this helpful
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Don the Baptist
5.0 out of 5 stars Exactly as described. You have earned the coveted 5 Star Rating. Thanks.
Reviewed in the United States on December 1, 2021
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Exactly as described. You have earned the coveted 5 Star Rating. Thanks.
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Succinct introduction to the wonderful world of probabilities
Reviewed in the United States on February 24, 2020
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I liked the easy and accessible style of writing, with clear explanations -given without it feeling as though it was dumbed down -just for you.
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Reid Fitzpatrick
2.0 out of 5 stars Used good?
Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2023
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I am disappointed as this product was not as advertised. Description read as used good but it arrived with scribbles all over the front???
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Reid Fitzpatrick
2.0 out of 5 stars Used good?
Reviewed in the United States on July 24, 2023
I am disappointed as this product was not as advertised. Description read as used good but it arrived with scribbles all over the front???
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Wentai
5.0 out of 5 stars Awesome
Reviewed in Canada on April 6, 2022
Verified Purchase
An excellent treatise on math, probability, numbers and odds. It explains that you are in more danger driving to a friend's house (which no one is afraid of) than in say jumping in the ocean (which many people are afraid of)
That reminds me -- why do sharks circle before they attack? Because they love seeing the water turn yellow before they eat.

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Yi Hao
5.0 out of 5 stars Probability perspective
Reviewed in Canada on December 2, 2017
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This is a 2005 book but a lot information is still up to date. Probability can calm me down when I know how small chance flight will crush. Professor Rosenthal did a great job on explaining some interesting questions, like birthday question and Monty hall problem. My favorite part is the case of collapsing casino
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Sebastian Langendrfer
3.0 out of 5 stars Interessant, aber eher für Laien geschrieben
Reviewed in Germany on February 11, 2016
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Für jemand, der wenig von den im Buch behandelten Themen weiß, sicher eine absolute Empfehlung Man lernt einiges über typische Fehler, die Menschen beim Umgang mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten machen. Kennt man sich damit schon ein bißchen aus, wird einem das Buch aber vermutlich nichts neues erzählen. Obwohl das in meinem Fall so war, liest es sich dennoch sehr flüssig und ist damit eine Empfehlung wert, Punktzahl nach oben anpassen, je weniger man bisher vom Thema des Buches weiß.
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Calanus
4.0 out of 5 stars Good review of practical statistics
Reviewed in Canada on October 8, 2018
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Presents a clear and understandable review of statistics and probability. Essential reading for any would-be gamblers or lotto players.
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Kavitha
4.0 out of 5 stars A great read!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 17, 2013
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This book is captivating and enlightening. It introduces several daily situations and problems and explains how probabilities are related to them in an easy way. As a teenager, it was a great thing how I finished the book eagerly without being bored.
The only disadvantage I'd say is the fact that all the maths behind it isn't explained in great detail, but it does give you enough to get the gist of it I suppose.
A great read, I recommend you get it. It's suitable for everyone :)
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