Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis 1st Edition
| Richards J. Heuer Jr. (Author) Find all the books, read about the author, and more. See search results for this author |
| Randolph H. Pherson (Author) Find all the books, read about the author, and more. See search results for this author |
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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise toward formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail, and utility from existing handbooks.
Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins.
THE TECHNIQUES
Getting Started Checklist
Customer Checklist
Issue Redefinition
Chronologies and Timelines
Sorting
Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing
Matrices
Network Analysis
Mind Maps and Concept Maps
Process Maps and Gantt Charts
Structured Brainstorming
Virtual Brainstorming
Nominal Group Technique
Starbursting
Cross-Impact Matrix
Morphological Analysis
Quadrant Crunching
Basic Scenario Analysis
Alternative Futures Analysis
Multiple Scenario Generation
Indicators
Indicators Validator
Simple Hypothesis
Multiple Hypotheses Generator
Quadrant Hypothesis Generation
Diagnostic Reasoning
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
Argument Mapping
Deception Detection
Key Assumptions Check
Structured Analogies
Role Playing
Red Hat Analysis
Outside-In Thinking
Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model
Prediction Markets
Premortem Analysis
Structured Self-Critique
What If? Analysis
High Impact/Low Probability Analysis
Devil’s Advocacy
Red Team Analysis
Delphi Method
Adversarial Collaboration
Structured Debate
Complexity Manager
Decision Matrix
Force Field Analysis
Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes
SWOT Analysis
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Editorial Reviews
Review
Policy advisers cling to the belief that they can simply think their way through difficult conflicts, despite experimental evidence that shows that they do no better than non-experts. Heuer and Pherson's Structured Analytic Techniques shows how evidence-based techniques can greatly improve experts' judgmental forecasting and decision making. This is the new Bible for decision makers facing conflicts. --J. Scott Armstrong, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania
Everyone says that intelligence organizations need to consider alternatives and challenge assumptions, but only with Structured Analytic Techniques do we have a detailed presentation of the ways to proceed. It should prove invaluable to practitioners and insightful to scholars. --Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics at Columbia University
About the Author
Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. After retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer was associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades until his death in August 2018. He has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. Mr. Heuer has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California. He also pursued graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan.
Randolph H. Pherson is president of Pherson Associates, LLC; CEO of Globalytica, LLC; and a founding director of the nonprofit Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. He teaches advanced analytic techniques and critical thinking skills to analysts in the government and private sector. Mr. Pherson collaborated with Richards Heuer Jr. in developing and launching use of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and he developed several analytic techniques for the CIA’s Sherman Kent School, many of which were incorporated in his Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. He coauthored Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action with Sarah Miller Beebe, and several other guides for analysts on writing, briefing, indicators, and managing the production process. Mr. Pherson completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community in 2000, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General’s staff, and was chief of the CIA’s Strategic Planning and Management Staff. He is the recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his B.A. from Dartmouth College and an M.A. in international relations from Yale University.
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Product details
- Publisher : CQ Press; 1st edition (March 16, 2010)
- Language : English
- Plastic Comb : 368 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1608710181
- ISBN-13 : 978-1608710188
- Item Weight : 1.3 pounds
- Dimensions : 7.5 x 1.25 x 8.75 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,166,197 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,523 in Public Policy (Books)
- #1,736 in Economic Policy
- #1,754 in Economic Policy & Development (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the authors

During over six decades of association with the US Intelligence Community, I have worked in collection operations, counterintelligence, intelligence analysis, and personnel security. After "retirement" from CIA in 1979, I moved to the Monterey Peninsula with a contract to continue research for the Agency that lasted another 20 years. These were very productive years, including writing and publication by CIA of my book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. My goal was to continue working as long as I could make a productive contribution. I then became a consultant to the Department of Defense Personnel Security Research Center in Monterey, while also writing, together with Randolph Pherson, our popular book, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis.
My academic background is a major in Philosophy at Williams College, an M.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California, graduate studies in Political Science at the University of California in Berkeley, and a summer program on quantitative analysis at the University of Michigan.
I am grateful for the many awards received during the course of my work. These include the CIA Seal Medallion in 1987 for developing and teaching an innovative methodology for addressing "complex and challenging problems" facing the Intelligence Community; CIA recognition in 1988 for my "outstanding contribution to the literature of intelligence"; and again by CIA in 1996 for my "work on countering denial and deception." The International Association of Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysts designated my book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, as their "Publication of the Year" for the year 2000. The International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) gave me its 2008 annual award for contribution to intelligence education. I also received the U.S. Congress Certificate of Special Congressional Recognition in 1995 for "outstanding service to the community" during my 12 years of public service in elected office on the Monterey Peninsula.

I have been developing and teaching Structured Analytic Techniques and critical thinking and writing skills for almost two decades to analysts throughout the intelligence, homeland security, and defense communities as well as in the private sector and overseas. Since retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in 2000, i have authored, co-authored, and edited eleven books on intelligence analysis. You can find them on shop.globalytica.com. I am best known for co-authoring Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis with Richards J. Heuer, Jr. and Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence with my wife, Katherine Hibbs Pherson. I also write a monthly blog, the Analytic Insider, www.globalytica.com, that provides insights on how to use analytic techniques to better understand how the world is evolving and learn what you can do to stay ahead of the brewing chaos.
As Chief Executive Officer of Globalytica, LLC, i have taught courses in over two dozen countries, supporting major financial institutions, global retailers, and security firms. I am also a Founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit that supports the propagation of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques. Our companies has taught critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques to 10 of the Fortune Top 100. We also facilitate Strategic Foresight Analysis workshops for foreign governments, international foundations, and multinational corporations and holds the patent on a suite of collaborative analytic tools. As CEO and as President of Pherson Associates, I have assisted senior corporate and government officials in building robust analytic organizations. Our companies have developed and implemented programs on how to increase the quality and speed of delivery of analytic products for US Government agencies, Homeland Security Fusion Centers, a major global law firm, and a major oil company.I am also a Founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence, a nonprofit that supports the propagation of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques.
Before becoming involved in teaching analytic techniques, I worked for almost three decades in the Intelligence Community, last serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. While at the Central Intelligence Agency, I managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the agency. I am the proud recipient of the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for my service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. My academic background is a political science major specializing in African Studies at Dartmouth College and an M.A. in International Relations from Yale University where I also took courses at the Yale Law School.






