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SuperCycles: The New Economic Force Transforming Global Markets and Investment Strategy Hardcover – February 4, 2010
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About the Author
Top Customer Reviews
First, an important disclosure. I've had the book for just a few days and I've skimmed it quickly and then gone back to read the sections that caught my attention. The best way to read this sort of the book is to read it carefully because it is heavy with concepts - and these concepts build on the ones that came earlier. Since not many of us have the time to devote a whole week to a single book, I would suggest that the reader focus on the Introduction, Chapters 1, 2 3, 6, 7 and 8. Some of the chapters in the middle of the book that deal with the Gold Standard would appeal only to history buffs. The last chapter is on investment ideas for the three scenarios (deflation and two types of inflation) and would be of maximum interest to the general reader but to be quite honest you won't get that much out of it if you haven't understood how the Supercycle works and why the author believes that policymakers are going to be faced with nothing but really terrible choices. The two Appendixes, both quite long, can be omitted by most.
Is Motianey's thesis convincing?Read more ›
Those hankering for a screed that would dump on the financial sector or the Washington political class will be disappointed. This is a serious work of analysis, written with a great amount of literary flourish. Although the reader can sense the author's outrage at various stages in the book his targets are not specific individuals, companies or countries. Motianey's conclusion is that the financial meltdown was an intellectual failure of the highest order - and until that is recognized and corrected we will remain thrashing around in the morass.
Happily, he does offer us a ray of hope at the end. Using the framework of the Supercycle, he points the way out, but on the basis of accepting much higher inflation than the central banks would wish. He worries that the need to encourage inflation will clash with the central bankers' need to stay true to everything they have been taught is right. Major ideological battles lie ahead for all central banks, including the Fed.Read more ›
The book is good on economic history, with an introduction to the concept of Kondriatev wave cycles. There's reference to classical theories of Smith, Mill, Keynes and others. He gives Friedman pretty short shrift. Especially interesting is the introduction to the contrarian ideas of Minsky and Koo in the appendix. The analysis of which equities perform best under which economic conditions might prove useful.
Starting with Chapter 4, this is worth reading.
The only data he presents to base his major thesis on is a single, two line, time series graph showing prices for manufactured goods and commodities. He claims he is writing for the general reader but fails to even explain the terms used in the graph, i.e. MVU and GYCPI. His basic thesis is that there is a long wave business cycle triggered by declining prices in the raw commodity segment of the international economy. These price declines move up the supply chain and eventually cause oversupply of consumer goods, cutbacks, and depression.
The author barely discusses key concepts that affect his thesis like tariffs, wages, or the fact that the growing service sector is labor intensive and uses very few commodity based inputs. He has fallen love with certain words (Fordism, ontological, intertemporal, falsify) and seems to use them whenever he can’t think of anything useful to write.
Most Recent Customer Reviews
Best book on macro trend investing. It is clear and well thought out.Published 1 month ago by Carebear
This book has a nice title but that is about the only thing that is good in this book. Vague information is everywhere. This was a very boring read.Published on July 5, 2012 by Nick S.
In classic economic theory, market forces move the global economy toward a balance in the creation and consumption of products and services. Read morePublished on April 28, 2011 by Rolf Dobelli
I struggle with real mathematical applications to economic history but this was accessible. Basically, he argues that economic history has been a series of price shocks and... Read morePublished on September 14, 2010 by Benjamin Reid Lodmell
Supercycles is a refreshing view of modern economics that draws richly from the author's knowledge of history and experience. Read morePublished on July 8, 2010 by jtamp
My mother always said say something nice so here goes - the author has a very impressive vocabulary and the cover art is really nice. Read morePublished on April 25, 2010 by AbbeyRoad
I'm halfway through this excellent book. If you've been trying to make sense of global macro phenomena, look no further. Read morePublished on April 15, 2010 by E. Paradis
Mr. Motianey's book is intellectually rigorous and easy to read for anyone that has been following the present global crisis. Read morePublished on January 31, 2010 by Jorge A. Ardohain