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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Hardcover – September 29, 2015

by Philip E. Tetlock (Author),
Dan Gardner (Author)
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4.2 out of 5 stars 193 customer reviews
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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Crown (September 29, 2015)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0804136696
  • ISBN-13: 978-0804136693
  • Product Dimensions: 6.5 x 1.2 x 9.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (193 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,674 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

3.0 out of 5 starsValuable lessons for forecasting, but lacks a practical recipe: 3.5 stars
By Ash Jogalekar TOP 1000 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on September 13, 2015
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
In the 1990s Philip Tetlock gathered together hundreds of experts and "ordinary" - albeit extremely well-read - people and asked them to try to predict global questions of significance: What will happen to the stock market in the next one year? What will be the fate of Tunisia in two years? What kind of impact of middle eastern politics on oil prices are we going to see in the next six months?

He continued the contest for several years and came up with a shocking answer: the ordinary people who read the daily news and thought about it with depth and nuance were at least as good as self-proclaimed and well-known experts from the financial sector, from government and from intelligence agencies. These results of the so-called 'Good Judgement Project' were widely publicized by the media under the "there are no experts" drumroll, but as Fetlock and his co-author Gardner indicate in this book, what the media failed to report was the presence of a handful of people who were even better than the experts, albeit by modest amounts. Tetlock called these people 'superforecasters', and this is their story.

The crux of the book is to demonstrate the qualities that these superforecasters have and try to teach them to us. The narrative is packed with very interesting problems of forecasting like figuring out if the man in a mysterious compound in Pakistan was Osama Bin Laden or whether Yasser Arafat had been poisoned by Israel. In each case Tetlock takes us through the thought processes of his superforecasters, many of who have held non-forecasting related day jobs including plumbing, office work and construction.Read more ›
7 Comments 142 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
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5.0 out of 5 starsThis book has a 100% probability of making you think!
By Angie Boyter VINE VOICE on August 28, 2015
Format: Hardcover Vine Customer Review of Free Product ( What's this? )
Everyone wants to be able to predict the future, whether they are buying stocks, choosing a mate, or deciding how the next presidential election will go, but what, if anything, can we do to improve our ability to predict? Wharton School professor Philip Tetlock has been studying that question since the Reagan era and has observed forecasters from pundits and intelligence analysts to filmmakers and pipe fitters to try to learn why some people are better at making predictions than others. In this book, he describes his work and that of others and presents some techniques that may help all of us make better decisions.
As someone who enjoys reading about topics like decision-making, forecasting, and behavioral economics, I too often find myself reluctantly concluding, “That was well-presented, but there is nothing here I have not heard before.” For a reader new to the subject, it is good that Superforecasting delves into the ideas of people like psychologist Daniel Kahneman, whose description of the biases in judgment that impede our ability to make good decisions and forecasts earned him a Nobel Prize in Economics, and Tetlock appropriately covers topics like these.
I was pleased, though, he also presented some interesting work I was not familiar with, such as the author’s own Expert Political Judgment project to study whether some people really are better predictors than others and, if so, how they differ from the less successful experts, and the Good Judgment Project that was part of an effort to improve intelligence estimating techniques funded by IARPA (the intelligence community’s equivalent of DARPA). I was also especially amused by a contest run in 1997 by the Financial Times at the suggestion of behavioral economist Richard Thaler.Read more ›
3 Comments 90 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
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2.0 out of 5 starsMore about superforecasters than about superforecasting
By Jackal on October 7, 2015
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
There are two kind of pop-science books; one deep and thoughtful based on years of research, one quick and dirty written by a ghost-writer. This book is of the latter kind. Tetlock wrote Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? about a decade ago. That book was deep and thoughtful. I had expected his new book to be an update with ten more years of research and consulting. Sadly, I am greatly disappointed. The book could have been written totally without additional research input. It starts with a couple of chapters of the history of the standard controlled experiment. There is about 50 pages of real content in the 330 pages of the book.There is a lot of content directly lifted from the web (e.g. Fermi-forecasting, Auftragstaktik) - kind of Malcolm Gladwell style, some insight and some misinterpretation.

The style is **extreme pop-science**. What do I mean with that? Far too many pages, plentiful descriptions of minute irrelevant details of individuals (so called human interest points - I guess that is what they teach in creative writing), never any figure or number (e.g. 67% is changed to two thirds), all difficult material removed or put in a footnote. And how come a book with two authors use the pronoun "I" all the time?

The researcher has run a forecasting tournament for several years. He has loads of data, but he does not provide any analysis in the book. He refers to his research in footnotes, but no explanation or description at all. Instead we get statements like 80% of superforecasters are more intelligent than average. What is wrong with running a regression to find out what characteristics are important?Read more ›
5 Comments 66 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

4.0 out of 5 starsFour Stars

Great Read, and worth following up with a look at the Good Judgement Project on the web

Published 2 days ago by John McBride
5.0 out of 5 starsthe world would be a better

If everyone would understand this stuff, the world would be a better place

Published 2 days ago by Ohnesorg
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

More pragmatic look at forecasting than many other texts on the subject.

Published 2 days ago by Jeffrey P.
5.0 out of 5 starsGreat book, with insight and solid platform to improve ...

Great book, with insight and solid platform to improve your own forecasting skills. The book was very well laid out in the history and the factors along with the importance of... Read more

Published 5 days ago by Zach Goldsworthy
2.0 out of 5 starsAfter each chapter I asked myself is there anything at ...

After each chapter I asked myself is there anything at all that I learned from these last few pages. The answer was no. I kept thinking it would get better-it never did

Published 6 days ago by Rob E.
5.0 out of 5 starsWhat are the odds?

One Eureka revelation after another. This is a must read and template for anyone that believes in critical thinking. Read more

Published 6 days ago by James E. Nickelson
5.0 out of 5 starsSmart and Enjoyable to read

I assumed this book would be very analytical in nature, and touch upon subjects like statistics and probability, etc, which made it kind of daunting. Read more

Published 6 days ago by Annabelle W.
4.0 out of 5 starsInteresting

Interesting

Published 6 days ago by A M
3.0 out of 5 starsNice

Nice, but little we did not know before. May be a revelation to the beginner.

Published 7 days ago by Medh Nehal Hemant
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Great book. Delivery was fast.

Published 8 days ago by Katlyn Stoneburner

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