This is a well written short review of an important question. It's written by a man who has spent his life studying the question, and who has a good and fair understanding of it. He sets out the context well before defining the exact question he can answer by scientific means (by means of reasonably accurate measurements, and awareness of their strengths and limitations.) He's writing against scientists, advocates and politicians who are overstating the science, and going beyond the evidence. He sees that "In recent years advocates for action on climate change have enlisted disasters as a leading theme of advocacy campaigns... A turn to this strategy has occurred despite a broad consensus in the scientific literature that the evidence for connections between climate change and disasters is incredibly weak." He considers one of Barack Obama's speeches in 2013 and says of it, "I knew that several (but not all) of the claims he made were just plain wrong- they were not supported by the state of the research. In fact, some were contradicted by that research." He also records "My surprise was that my colleagues were asking me to downplay and to even misrepresent my own research because it was being viewed as inconvenient in the advocacy effort on climate change." Considering another context where information was being misused he quotes Robin Cook on the lead up to the Iraq War, "Instead of using intelligence as evidence on which to make a decision about policy, we used intelligence as the basis on which to justify a policy on which we had already settled." and John Kay, "Whatever initial misconceptions spin doctors may promote, reality will out."
Pierce is writing this book to correct a misconception- one that has gone round the world whilst the truth is getting it boots on.
The specific question he asks is, "Have disasters become more costly because of human-caused climate change?" He describes the information and dat he uses to answer this question. He uses data on weather events and records of insurance company payments and uses them to see if the patterns match or not. His conclusion is that,
"All we can say is that the record of disaster losses is fully explainable by changes in society. There is at present no evidence that human caused climate change is responsible for any part of the global increase in disaster costs. We cannot say there is no such influence.
But as I have explained on many occasions, from a practical standpoint a signal that may exist, but which cannot be detected, is indistinguishable from a signal that does not exist...
Science is concerned with evidence, not with supporting pre-existing beliefs."
The main meat of the book provides plenty of evidence from many recorded and referenced sources to support its negative answer to its main question.
This is a good book showing well how to use scientific evidence to answer a well defined question. He also rightly warns against, "But efforts to intensify public opinion through apocalyptic visions of weather-gone-wild or appeals to scientific authority, instead of motivating further support for action, have instead led to a loss of trust in campaigning scientists."
He concludes, "But the false link between disasters and climate change also distracts us from the many politically pragmatic and economically sensible justifications for accelerating the transition to clean cheap energy."
This book brings a clear scientific eye to a large amount of evidence and shows us how it looks, and where we should be looking for answers that might help people. The noise elsewhere is a distraction from clear thought. We owe Roger Pielke a debt of gratitude for taking the risk to provide us with this clear account.
Comment Comment | Permalink
Download the free Kindle app and start reading Kindle books instantly on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.
Read instantly on your browser with Kindle for Web.
Using your mobile phone camera - scan the code below and download the Kindle app.
There is a newer edition of this item:
Customers who bought this item also bought
Page 1 of 1 Start overPage 1 of 1
About the author
Follow authors to get new release updates, plus improved recommendations.
Top reviews from other countries
meteoadvanced
Fakten gegen den AGW Fanatismus!
Reviewed in Germany on October 27, 2016
Peter F Gill
Roger cuts a number of climate alarmist links and substitutes ...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 5, 2015
