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This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Paperback – Illustrated, August 7, 2011
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Carmen M. Reinhart
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Kenneth S. Rogoff
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Print length512 pages
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LanguageEnglish
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PublisherPrinceton University Press
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Publication dateAugust 7, 2011
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Dimensions5.47 x 1.4 x 8.54 inches
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ISBN-100691152640
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ISBN-13978-0691152646
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"Wouldn't it be nice to have $1,000 for every time a pundit proclaims an era of endless prosperity, consigning booms and busts to the dumpster of history? The next time you hear that canard (and you will) pour yourself a single malt and dip into Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff's landmark study, This Time Is Different. Wherever you open the book, you'll find proof that debt-fueled expansions have ended in financial ruin for hundreds of years. . . . The result is a visual history laid out in beguilingly simple graphs and tables, making the book both definitive--a must read for professors and investors--and accessible to a wider audience."---James Pressley, Bloomberg News
"[This Time is Different] is perhaps the finest study of financial crises ever published."---Ezra Klein, Washington Post
"One of Library Journal Best Business Books - Economics/U.S. Economy category"
"[A] valuable new book." ― Idaho Statesman
"Finalist for the 2011 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize"
"Mr. Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University, accurately predicted the eurozone debt crisis and for years has been telling anyone who would listen that China posed the next big threat to the global economy. He is starting to look right, again. . . . 'China is the classic "This time is different" story,' Mr. Rogoff said."---Andrew Ross Sorkin, New York Times
"Financial folly, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff show in this groundbreaking book, knows no boundaries and has no expiration date. . . . For a book built around numbers, This Time is Different makes for surprisingly good reading. The authors are well aware that human nature is at the heart of the disasters they document, and they enliven the text with brief and amusing accounts of charlatans and cheats."---Paul Wiseman, USA Today
"Reinhart and Rogoff present a sobering reminder that financial crises are a serial phenomenon--caused in no small part by the seductive 'this-time-is-different syndrome,' the prevalent belief that to us, here and now, old economic laws of motion no longer apply. Their ambitious quantitative history of financial crises draws out sweeping parallels between financial crises, across times and continents; and between inflating away domestic debt, currency debasements, and defaults on external debt." ― Finance & Development
"For those who want to relearn the forgotten lessons of the past, This Time is Different, by economics professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, is an excellent place to start. . . . These are lessons worth learning."---Liaquat Ahamed, National Interest
Review
"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."―Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World
"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."―Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits
"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."―Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide
"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."―Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)
"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."―Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012
"A classic."―Nouriel Roubini
From the Back Cover
"This Time Is Different is a tremendously exciting, topical, and controversial book on the history of debt and default. This one belongs on everyone's shelf."--Barry Eichengreen, author of The European Economy since 1945
"This is quite simply the best empirical investigation of financial crises ever published. Covering hundreds of years and bringing together a dizzying array of data, Reinhart and Rogoff have made a truly heroic contribution to financial history. This single marvelous volume is worth a thousand mathematical models."--Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World
"This Time is Different is terrific, for it gives just the perspective we need on the current world economic crisis. People can't expect to understand the current crisis without some in-depth look at past crises. That is exactly what this excellent and timely book provides."--Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance and coauthor of Animal Spirits
"You will be hard-pressed to find a more comprehensive and insightful analysis of financial crises. Reinhart and Rogoff's superb book is a must-read for anyone looking to understand past and present crises, as well as navigate those of tomorrow."--Mohamed El-Erian, author of When Markets Collide
"I would say that her [Carmen Reinhart's] book with Ken Rogoff on debt crises and financial crises is an extraordinary piece of work."--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee (6/9/2010)
"The most important authorities probably in the world now on financial crashes are Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart. . . . And I read it [This Time is Different]."--Former President Bill Clinton, speech at Youngstown, OH, October 31, 2012
"A classic."--Nouriel Roubini
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Princeton University Press; Reprint edition (August 7, 2011)
- Language : English
- Paperback : 512 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0691152640
- ISBN-13 : 978-0691152646
- Item Weight : 1 pounds
- Dimensions : 5.47 x 1.4 x 8.54 inches
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Best Sellers Rank:
#63,886 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #30 in Microeconomics (Books)
- #194 in Economic History (Books)
- #525 in Finance (Books)
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Top reviews from the United States
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As it was, I still thought it was an interesting book and the main takeaway is that -- given the cyclical nature of financial history -- we're going to see some large crises soon. The book made it abundantly clear that the period of relative calm we've been enjoying recently is not a "normal" state of affairs. Interesting times are ahead ...
Other points of note was the relative importance of domestic debt when predicting external defaults, and how crises tend to occur in clusters. Also the difficulties faced by certain countries attempting to "graduate" from never-ending crises to something resembling greater stability.
Anyway, an interesting read but the style could have been far more readable.
The real point of the authors, is that every era thinks "This Time Is Different" and the truth is almost always otherwise. Debt, deficits, and default have been recurring themes throughout human history. They have happened many times before. They will happen many times again. The countries you think will never default, frequently do. Germany is generally regarded as one of the safest creditors in the world (these days). German history suggests otherwise. Greece has been in ruins (economic ruins) for almost 200 years.
The idea that Greece was ever a reasonable credit risk was (is) absurd. Yet, Greece could borrow at rock bottom interest rates for years after it joined the Euro system. Even now, Europe's leaders are trying to prevent a final default (wipe out) on Greek debt. History says that they will lose.
This book was written before their deification by pro-austerity, less-compassionate politicians. This book lays out the data and the small empirically based “aha's”, which investors can use to practical results. And their successful effort in this book is enormous, teasing out reliable historical data, never found before, especially from the Third World. Never underestimate the power of details. I admire this book completely for its precision. And the conclusion I can draw: Caveat Emptor. The future rhymes with the past. Do not confuse causation and correlation.
Top reviews from other countries
In creating this relatively short but gigantically impressive and influential (while some possibly have not read it, many nevertheless have) work the authors have dug deep into what archives they have been able to delve. At times the charts are so numerous the text has a job keeping up. The tables, too, are frequent, informative and, often, frightening. But they underline the herculean task involved in prising the data out of some hands, and make a case for a centralised clearing house for making such data transparent, rather than the current opacity and obfuscation.
The central point, of course, is that the fundamental tenets of economics do not change. You can't spend what you'll never have and get away with it. There's a price to pay, always, as the world economy, and especially the increasingly pauperised south Europeans are now finding. This time, and any other time you care to mention, really is not different. The dotcom boom was replete with spotty youths accusing the oldsters that they didn't "get it", all too often hounding them out of the boardroom so they could observe at a distance as their dire predictions came true. Ditto with the armies of derivatives sellers explaining how their CDOs, CDSs and their like would completely diversify risk away. Instead, they were the root of the problem as the subprime deck of cards came tumbling down, leading to the discovery that much of the risk had been diversified away to the same place.
Perhaps of most pressing interest is the coverage received by Greece, including the disclosure that since independence in 1820 the country has spent over half the time in default, and looks like continuing that illustrious achievement for a few more years still. But the authors use the example of Argentina in 2001-2 to demonstrate the perils awaiting should Greece leave the eurozone, a sentiment echoed by, amongst others, former central-bank governors of Argentina and Mexico (The Economist, February 18th 2012), who remind us of the chaos following the abandonment of Argentina's peg to the dollar and point out that, given the deep integration of Greece with the rest of Europe, the result of the country abandoning the euro would be many times worse.
We have, say Reinhart and Rogoff, learnt a lot about the way the world economy works since the Great Depression. But we have much left to learn, and besides, the world is constantly in a state of change and the learning process never ends. Their book is a valuable part of that learning process.
The information on banking crises being the worst of all possible crises, and that ratings agencies are poor predictors of these events was very enlightening.
So why does't it merit the full 5 stars?
The authors analyse recessions, and mention for example it means a loss of tax revenue. They completely omit that increase in government spending is usually a couple of multiples higher than loss of tax revenue. The authors also after-time in their definitions. This is to be expected, as you define the indicators of a problem after the sequence of events resulting from the problem has been revealed. But it's still after-timing nonetheless.
This matters in a sense as many economists are now saying that across the spectrum of modern advanced economies an experiment is being conducted to see if 'austerity' is the solution or part of the problem. Naturally these same economists will give it another 15 years or so before defining their terms as to what austerity on the part of a government actually means, and then fit the definition to predict the outcome. This is not the scientific method, that is for sure.
As the authors went to great trouble to define their 5 crisis events, I think they missed an opportunity for a genuinely superb opus which is of future relevance by failing to define 'austerity' and omitting crises of excessive government spending. They did labour the 'This time is different' point excessively too.
They've written something of historical relevance, that has to be admitted, and many ideas are suggested.
The book analyses domestic debt; data that has apparently been unavailable previously, as governments are not that willing to reveal how much they have borrowed historically. Indeed, the authors make it clear that there is obfuscation going on here, as with modern technology, this data should be readily available. Nevertheless, they have tacked bits of domestic internal debt data together in order to aid the analysis.
Future generations will look back at our present financial easing and wonder what the hell we were thinking, trying to dig ourselves out of a financial crisis (bought on by real estate lending), by trying to further stimulate the real estate market. All the more so given analysis which is now readily available, such as in this book.
One extension which I would like to see would be to include implicit debt, such as historic promises of state benefits, in order to draw further conclusions about our current financial situation. In the UK, we have the NHS and public sector pensions to finance. In the US, there is the medicare bill. It would be interesting to have seen the impact of these implicit debts being quantified in This Time is Different.
I wholeheartedly recommend this book. It's not a light bedtime read but is accessible and more than readable, and more's the point, you can dip in to whatever chapter is relevant for your enquiry. There are swathes of tables and reference charts, and the later chapters deal with the current crisis - which we learn is not new (though the debt mountain is the greatest on record).
I would suggest it helps to have a modicum of understanding of world finance, this is not a book for beginners (for that go to "Conspiracy of the Rich" by Robert Kiyosaki - possibly the best there is to really get inside what's going on in the world of finance and highly readable), but for those already engaged in this area, "This Time is Different" is essential.
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