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Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent Hardcover – April 3, 2012

by Edward Luce (Author)

4.2 134 ratings

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"Gentlemen, we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking."-Sir Ernest Rutherford, winner of the Nobel Prize in Nuclear PhysicsTime to Start Thinking is a book destined to spark debate among liberals and conservatives alike. Drawing on his decades of exceptional journalism and his connections within Washington and around the world, Luce advances a carefully constructed and controversial argument, backed up by interviews with many of the key players in politics and business, that America is losing its pragmatism - and that the consequences of this may soon leave the country high and dry.Luce turns his attention to a number of different key issues that are set to affect America's position in the world order: the changing structure of the US economy, the continued polarization of American politics; the debilitating effect of the "permanent election campaign"; the challenges involved in the overhaul of the country's public education system; and the heal

Print length

320 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Atlantic Monthly Press
Publication date

April 3, 2012
Dimensions

6.25 x 1.25 x 9 inches
ISBN-10

0802120210
ISBN-13

978-0802120212
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Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

Luce, Washington bureau chief of the Financial Times, joins a lengthening parade of pundits—among them, Fareed Zakaria, Thomas L. Friedman, Tom Brokaw, and Bill Clinton—describing, in painfully graphic detail, America’s decline. Luce focuses on the seismic shift of money and talent from America’s technology sector to those of China, India, and beyond, a shift that has reverberated throughout the U.S. economy, particularly for the middle class. He attributes the change to, among other things, Republican demagoguery against federal funding of research, red tape in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, a polarized and paralyzed electorate, and the influence of big money on national politics. Unlike his fellow pundits, Luce doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions in this fine analysis, except maybe in this quote from one American entrepreneur, “To overcome a problem, you must first recognize it exists.” --Alan Moores

Review

“[Luce] knows the country well, and he wishes it well too. A result is that he leavens his yearning for smarter, more nimble government with a realism not always found among Europeans . . . Luce is a good writer with a vacuum-cleaner for a notebook. His book could not be bettered as a compendium of American problems, at least as filtered through the center-left sensibilities of a pro-American European. . . . Time to Start Thinking raises the right questions at the right moment, which is what books are supposed to do. It deserves an audience in America. And I wouldn’t be surprised, too, if it ends up stacked on the best-seller tables in China.”—Jonathan Rauch, The New York Times Book Review

“Luce puts his finger right on some obvious and less obvious problems, all the time pointing the way out of the swamp. . . . Some of his observations are simply delightful. . . . This book needs to be read as a dose of cold water, but also as a goad to action to change its sad prognosis before it is too late. The waterfall is just ahead.”—Dan Simpson, The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

"In a tradition stretching back to de Tocqueville, sympathetic foreigners are often the keenest observers of American life. Edward Luce is one such person. He paints a highly disturbing picture of the state of American society, and of the total failure of American elites to come to grips with the real problems facing the country. It rises far above the current political rhetoric by its measured reliance on facts rather than canned ideological posturing to reach its conclusions."—Francis Fukuyama, author of The End Of History and The Last Man

"Time to Start Thinking is not only a wonderful tapestry of the current state of America, it provides a deeply insightful narrative on the origins of our current economic and political malaise. Ed Luce is a brilliant reporter who has spoken to everyone: CEOs and members of the cabinet, lobbyists and small town mayors, recent MBAs and unemployed teachers. In his acutely observed, often witty, and very humane portraits he succeeds in converting the abstractions of economics and bringing them to life. This is a book that will transform the way you think about this country."—Liaquat Ahamed, Pulitzer prize-winning author of The Lords of Finance

“Americans need friends who will tell us what we need to hear and how to think about the troubles, many of our own making, that threaten our democracy, prosperity, and leadership in the world. We’ve got just such a friend in Ed Luce. He’s a foreign observer who has not just traveled widely in the United States but listened carefully to a wide array of our citizens. His concerns reflect what he has seen and heard from us, and he shares with his predecessor de Tocqueville a belief that America’s greatness lies in an ‘ability to repair her faults.’ ”—Strobe Talbott, president, The Brookings Institution

“Warning: this book could be a danger to your peace of mind. One of the finest journalists of our time, Ed Luce has crisscrossed the United States, trying to understand what ails the country and what must be done. His conclusions are highly disturbing—and may sometimes set your teeth on edge—but they are a “must read.” Once again, a visitor to these shores has written a masterful portrait of America.”—David Gergen, professor, Harvard Kennedy School; senior political analyst, CNN

“A superb new book. . . Ed has done a far greater public service than all speeches touting America’s greatness that will be given during this campaign season.”—James M. Lindsay, The Council on Foreign Relations

“Luce is a very good reporter. He has spoken to a terrific array of characters—including eccentric entrepreneurs, bankers, captains of old industries, new technology evangelists, senior politicians, an admiral, academics, a community college head, a recruitment agency boss, brilliant immigrant students who are “going back” (ie away from the US). Best of all are his vivid portraits of Americans struggling to get by, assailed by what he calls “the hollowing out” of America’s middle class.”—The Financial Times

“Superb reporting of the on-ground reality of America’s current economic crisis . . . an unflinchingly brave book. Luce does not shy away from conclusions that are hard for many Americans to hear, not does he cop out and offer up the happy ending many in his audience may want to read. Rather, he offers what is most needed now: an objective profoundly thoughtful look at the underpinnings of America’s economic troubles, what makes the current crisis different from the past, and where we are likely headed from here.”—Foreign Policy

“Deeply-researched.”—Bernd Debusmann, Reuters.com

“[A] lucid, reported tour d'horizon. It provides an excellent snapshot of America in 2010 and 2011, a country grappling with serious issues and unsure about its place in the world.”—Yahoo.com

“[A] thoughtful and gently polemical book on contemporary American society. . . an engaging read, filled with anecdotes, stories and character vignettes that make the main arguments easy to follow and interesting to read.”—The Irish Examiner

“[T]his sharply written analysis by Financial Times columnist Luce (In Spite of the Gods) presents a sobering account of the U.S. in decline. . . . Despite ample doom and gloom, Luce’s analysis is sound, and his data irrefutable—required reading for pessimists and pious optimists alike.”—Publishers Weekly, boxed review

"Carefully balanced and often startlingly evocative analysis and reportage . . . It is true that there have been serious errors in policy. Luce, formerly the Financial Times’s south Asia bureau chief based in New Delhi and now the paper’s chief Washington correspondent, spells out these exercises in self-damage in painful and illuminating detail.”—The Guardian

“The book is not simply a laundry list of present-day policy failures (of which there have been many) but as hinted at by the title of a political system that’s stopped constructively engaging with policy challenges. . . . It’s time to start thinking.”—Slate.com

“[Luce] makes a convincing case.”—Matthew Partridge, MoneyWeek

“Luce wisely refrains from prescribing what America needs to do to get out of the rut. . . . They need new ideas, the lack of which Time to Start Thinking hopes to have captured. That in itself is no meager achievement.”—Hindustan Times

“Every half-decade or so, Financial Times journalist Edward Luce delivers an easy-reading but insightful country profile. . . . Luce’s books profile nations at the tipping point. . . . Edward Luce is carrying forward the great tradition of foreign correspondents from the Anglo-Saxon world, going back at least to Edgar Snow, who have produced penetrating outsider accounts of nations in the throes of change.”—Indian Express

“Luce finds plenty of fresh thinking . . . Essential reading for anyone who cares about the fate of the US and its consequences for the rest of us.”—Irish Times

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Atlantic Monthly Press; First Edition (April 3, 2012)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0802120210
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0802120212
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.19 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.25 x 1.25 x 9 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #268,832 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #322 in United States National Government

Customer Reviews:
4.2 134 ratings

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4.2 out of 5

134 global ratings

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Top reviews from the United States

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A readable and insightful analysis of current issues confronting the US

Reviewed in the United States on September 26, 2012

Verified Purchase

Edward Luce who many know from the FT in Time to Start Thinking: America in the Age of Descent, attempts to analyze some of the problems facing the US today. It looks at the economy, the education system, the entrepreneurial spirit, the political bureaucracy, the population and the power politics. It is a sobering account of many of the problem the US faces and it should be read with an open mind. Much can be disputed of course and pessimism is not inevitable but the substance behind this book is very real and should not be ignored. I will briefly go through the topics to give an overview.

The book starts with one of the most important concepts in the book. It begins by discussing the shrinking middle class. Economic gains for the last several decades have largely accrued to the highest income bracket and this chapter discusses the aspects of the decline of the middle class in the US which was a driver of the economy. Consumption had remained strong over the last decade mainly due to credit rather than labour gains. The chapter discusses the offshoring of jobs and the idea that manufacturing is where innovation happens and the offshoring of manufacturing despite taking advantage of labour cost comparative advantage, cripples the longer term intellectual capital of the US.

Luce continues on to discuss education- another gigantic topic. The US education system is seen as failing with dropout rates @ 25% in high school and education standards stalling domestically and as a result falling behind globally. Education solutions are notoriously difficult to construct as the Gates foundation has invested billions in the space it is clear there are no clear paths easy solutions. Educators are underpaid and over protected. Students are unprepared and teachers are asked to solve economic problems in the classroom. What is clear though is unless the US can improve its education the population will steadily be less prepared to face the real world with real skills.

The book continues on to discuss innovation in the US. One of the cornerstones of the US economic growth has been its ability to innovate and turn innovation into commercial success. It is argued that the advantage of the US in innovation is starting to erode- innovations and citations are increasing in China and are expected to succeed the US by 2020 by some accounts. The chapter goes on to argue that innovation is a product of the landscape and that the deteriorating landscape will impact innovation. As the PhDs of the US return to their native lands their innovative potential returns with them. Whereas in the past most people completing their graduate work stayed, they are increasingly finding their skills needed more obviously back home. This brain drain should be a concern for future innovation.

The next subject is the US bureacracy. It is impeding the economy as politicians have started to dismiss expert science and focus on money raising. Its dedication to R&D is a fraction of the past in percentage of GDP and continues to shrink. Great public goods require public funding which is in short supply. The example of the difficulty in finding someone to head NASA is an example of the lack of appeal of public scientific office. The increasing web of bureacracy in the government has made agencies convoluted with unclear mandates- the overlap between FDA, USDA EPA, department of agriculture for fish are all discussed as an example of how convoluted the government can be.

Luce continues to discuss the increasing difficulty in governing as politics has polarized. As compromise has become non-existent politics has focused on taking 1 step forward 1 step back as parties turnover and try to undo what those before them achieved. He describes this as parliamentary with the intention of describing the party in power focusing solely on their agenda versus consensus. In addition the 24 hour news cycle and the general level of discourse of the population has been degrading is all touched upon. Associate with education, the US population is less informed now than through much of its history.

Lastly the author discusses the lobbies and the money politics of the US. Since the Supreme Court decided that corporations have the same rights as individuals, the use of corporate balance sheets for commercial ends has started to infect the integrity of politics and of political outcomes being a representation of the populations desires. This results from the fact that diffuse marginal benefits dont organize as well as concentrated strong vested interest (something that has been articulated even in Machiavelli's Prince). The power and money in lobbying is discussed- as is Obama's navigation of the problem and how his politics morphed from trying to dissolve to accepting as institutional.

Time to Start thinking- like the title suggests, should force the reader to think about many developments and issues. There is much that will be disputed and inevitably many will disagree or claim that the US is relatively better etc... But nonetheless there is much real substance within the text and the accounts of the problems come from many voices and should be listened to. The account is sobering and can be quite worrisome but to face the future we must at least think about the problems and work towards fixing what we think is wrong. I definitely think one should read this and read it with an open mind.

9 people found this helpful

Just when is this "thinking" going to begin? (3.25*s)

Reviewed in the United States on April 21, 2012

Verified Purchase

What does an observant, foreign-born journalist see when he looks closely at America? Are there hidden fault lines that Americans cannot see? Not really. The author interviews any number of important business and political leaders as well as average Americans, but they all merely elaborate on what has been evident for quite a few years. America - socially, politically, and economically - has serious issues.

Economic decline is a large part of the story. It is not a matter of "if," but only "when" China will become the dominant economy in the world. America businesses invest heavily in China and have sent millions of jobs to that part of the world. It is the loss of not only manufacturing jobs, but also hi-tech jobs, that is hollowing out the American middle-class. The author decries the fact that American students do not pursue rigorous scientific studies, which means, one, they are unemployable, and, secondly, American innovation is rapidly waning.

The author is quite ingenuous when he fails to note the immense costs of graduate school and the fact that foreign students, who fill most of the seats, are heavily subsidized. He also fails to note the active labor policies of many European nations that coordinate training and employment. He also discounts trade policy as a means of equalizing the gap between the third world and the US falling back on simplistic protectionist arguments.

Perhaps most fundamental to the author's story is the structure and performance of the US federal government and the attitude towards government. As the author notes, but seems to be largely forgotten by Americans, government has had a huge role in our advances through the years - although often by necessity. The government has resources that no private business can match. One need only look at some of the massive infrastructure projects and huge R&D efforts to see the truth of that. The Interstate highway system, electronic development, and the Internet come to mind.

In recent years, the demonization and polarization surrounding government, both within and without, has brought innovative government action to a virtually standstill. And even without that development, there is so much complicated, bureaucratic redundancy that coherent policies and actions cannot be pursued. The abysmal failure of government leading to the 2008 financial crisis is clear indication of governmental sclerosis. But that crisis also leaves little doubt that wealthy interests dominate governmental action, or, more likely, inaction.

The book is more than just a bit wishful. At no time has America had a coherent public policy. The three prosperous decades following WWII were due to the worldwide dominance of US interests and the resulting good wages for some segments of the US population. But moneyed interests, led the by Business Roundtable, reasserted themselves in the mid-1970s. America over the last four decades has become a class divided society, dominated by corporations and the rich. The Tea Party, the shock troops for the rich, quite conveniently leads the charge in demonizing government, while the rich pull governmental strings behind the curtain. It is a terrible joke on those who could benefit from active, progressive governmental policies in so many areas.

The author does not even remotely offer any suggestions about how new "thinking" is going to occur. He clearly does not see Pres Obama as an answer, seeing him as a naïve conciliator. There is little doubt that the rich and the ignorant through their inordinate influences are failing America in so many ways: infrastructure, education, economic prospects and stability, health care, etc. One suspects that thinking that is best for all of America is not going to happen for a very long time - if ever.

52 people found this helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Athan

All thinking is left to the reader

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on October 3, 2015

Verified Purchase

The Financial Times always features an enormous article called “the Big Read” that focuses on an important topic in the news. The FT’s writers interview absolutely all the relevant players, tease out of them juicy quotes, present all sides of the argument, explain a fair bit of the detail and, generally speaking, set a tone, but leave the conclusions to the reader.

Edward Luce has done just that with this book. His topic (my prose) is “Seven things that are going wrong in America: Manufacturing, Education, Healthcare, the Federal Government, Polarization, the Permanent Election Campaign and the Death of the Entrepreneurial Spirit” to which he also adds “the missing middle.”

What makes the FT Big Read my favorite read of the day is pretty much what makes this book a mess: a format that works well for a one-page article begins to sag by the time you’re on page 50 and becomes downright annoying by page 280. Edward Luce has INCREDIBLE access and interviews a good 500 of the most important 1,000 Americans, but you, the reader, cannot possibly hope to remember what they all said. And you lose count of the many arguments that are made.

Also, this being a book, the author tends to sympathize a bit extra with what all his important interviewees have to tell him. The result is a 280 page long rant. Everything sucks in America, apparently. And everything was absolutely awesome a generation ago.

When I finished the book, I was fuming, basically. I was angry I’d spent my time reading this dense concatenation of quotes and comments and aghast at the paltry effort made to weave them all into a theme or story. Yes, I want to start thinking, but what are your thoughts, Mr. Luce?

He ends the book with a question: can America forge the consensus that will allow it sustain an open economy that benefits everyone?

Does he attempt to answer? Noooooooo he doesn’t. You’re on your own. Time to start thinking.

And yet, I’m glad I read it. I challenge anyone to say he knew everything that is listed in this extremely dense, thoroughly resourced and exquisitely written tome. There’s some serious information packed in here. And one particular theme, the “Killing of the Golden Goose” is developed particularly well.

That would be the part of the book where Luce argues America has thrown the secret recipe for innovation out the window. When once it attracted the best of the best and turned them into Americans, it now loses most of them to their home country once they’ve gotten their PhD. The trademark office that once used to make America the repository of the world’s best ideas has turned into a tax on innovation. The Passport Agency that once turned an interviewed Indian-born entrepreneur’s application in four weeks has turned into a Maginot Line. The VCs that once sought long shots now shop for sure things. Some weirder ideas slip in there too. Like Sarbanes-Oxley allegedly stops innovation. Or competition allegedly is a tax on innovation. That’s clearly stuff CEOs sweetly whispered into his ear. But the story is compelling, you read it and you’re like “perhaps he’s right.”

Some other stuff he’s got flat wrong though. China is firing manufacturing just as fast as the US and has been for at least a decade. I don’t care what Jeff Immelt tells everyone (Edward Luce included) but you have to agree with Austan Goolsbee’s view on page 161 that “people will point to China ten years from now and wonder how it could have wasted so much money.” A good 100 pages of this 280 page book argues passionately that the US ought to be throwing the same types of subsidies at high end manufacturing and I, for one, was far from convinced. Yes, yes, Regina Dugan of DARPA is right when she argues on page 147 that “to innovate we must make” but this does not mean the US government’s role is to match every new entrant’s subsidies. And it really can’t be that the future is in manufacturing if it’s also true that all new jobs since 1990 are in the non-tradable sector, can it?

Also, this would contradict the story Edward Luce (very convincingly) tells aboutwhat he considers to be the US government’s main problem, namely that, tightening budgets notwithstanding, it’s plagued by complexity and fragmentation of a frighteningly accelerating nature. Quoting Silicon Valley entrepreneur Ed Perhoet, (p. 145) “Let’s say the president wanted to combine all research money into one agency. He wouldn’t stand a chance. The easiest step would be to set up a new agency, which would then compete with all the others for authority and funds.” Luce quotes all the necessary numbers on the size of the tax code (best exemplified by the fact that the head of the IRS has his taxes filled out by a professional), the geometrically growing number of regulations (70k pages at last count), the escalating number of executive titles (with 64 “chiefs of staff” under George W Bush), the staggering number of outside contractors (10.5 million compared with fewer than 2 million direct federal employees, their number having been capped there by Congress in 1951), Barack Obama’s 37 policy czars, the 56 programs to promote financial literacy, the 82 different programs to improve teaching ability, the 51 “entirely duplicative” schemes for worker assistance and the US military’s dozens of independent ways to deal with IEDs in Afghanistan. How exactly could this government steer industrial policy, even if it made sense to do so?

I was most reminded of the FT’s Big Read when the FDA came under Luce’s microscope. First comes a vicious attack from the angle of the Semiconductor Industry, but it’s swiftly followed by an impassioned plea to support the FDA. All it seems to have taken is an audience from its charismatic leader. The chapter ends with an exhortation to fund regulators better or risk losing control of “the global commons.” Rather weird.

The education chapter is a list of failed initiatives, some government-sponsored, such as the cash-starved community colleges and some private, such as Bill Gates’ crusade to make classes smaller. An initiative to get schools to enter robot competitions is more of an excuse for the author to hang out with and hitch a plane ride from legendary inventor Victor Kamen.

The healthcare section. Erm, what healthcare section? Oh, yes. If we ever were to go back to the era when US corporations ruled the world and provided continuous lifetime education and opportunities to a loyal workforce, with no risk of their investment jumping ship to the competition, perhaps they could also pay for said employees' healthcare. Sure. And we could also watch the Fonz together and be cool, one presumes.

The chapter on polarization is convincing. You find out about the Tea Party and Glenn Beck and a funky referendum consultant who can get Californians to vote for anything if you pay him enough. America is dangerously polarized, and this is conveyed extremely well.

The explanation of how we got there is missing though. Yes, it’s true, the manufacturing jobs that are forever gone were lost to people who would normally have stood in between the two extremes. They were middle class jobs. Yes, the tax breaks in America all help the rich homeowners, rich stock owners, rich corporations that can hire tax specialists and they all deprive the state of money it could have targeted to the poor, but this 100% true and rather unfortunate fact makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. It does not do much in terms of annihilating those in the middle. The only decent explanation is rather indecent. It comes from Edward Luce’s former boss, Larry Summers who argues that “since the eighty/twenty rule is true, things aren’t that great for the 80 percent.” (p. 59)

The last chapter is the one about how money buys power in American politics and it turned my stomach. You follow around Jim Messina as he raises millions for Obama, you are confronted with the nasty hypocrisy regarding lobbyists and how Senator Baucus, who has received so far USD 38 million in campaign contributions cut big Pharma a sweet deal and killed the public insurance option after Obama gave him the keys to Obamacare, before handing over to Liz Fowler (a frequent recipient of paid work by Wellpoint) to lead the actual drafting. Page 231 you can read the vomit-inducing endorsement she gets from the Obama administration after somebody questioned the logic of her appointment. Similar examples are given from all recent administrations.

Away from the “China is taking over because we lack an industrial policy” the book does not really have a narrative, basically. It does not have a beginning and an end. You could mix up the chapters and nothing would be lost. And it does not offer answers, just soundbites. Well, there is one answer (we need an industrial policy to save high-end manufacturing) but I disagree with it.

Perversely, I’m glad I read the book, I’ve learnt a lot. A bit like I feel after I’ve read the Big Read.

One person found this helpful

Alexander Titov

An absolute must read if you want to understand contemporary America.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 14, 2017

Verified Purchase

A thoughtful and very disturbing insight into the many crises of American model. Although written in 2011-12, I couldn't help thinking about Trump's election - the signs of a crisis were all there but even Luce wouldn't have believed the Donald could ever be a president...An absolute must read if you want to understand contemporary America.

One person found this helpful

Agedone

Fascinating insights

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 16, 2012

Verified Purchase

After I heard the author speak on the radio, I ordered this fascinating book immediately, and it lived up to my expectations in every way. The author has used his many insider contacts to create a brilliant insight into the state of the USA today - and it is a depressing, not to say worrying one at that.If you suspect that the USA is in decline it will confirm your fears, and if you know little about their system it will open your eyes. The book is written in a very accessible style - thoroughly recommended as an absorbing read.

One person found this helpful

Mike Banfield

A must read

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on May 11, 2014

Verified Purchase

Well written by a professional and experienced commentator on the U.S.A. this book sets out a convincing case for the Americans to look critically at their great country.

Neptune

Makes you think!

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on April 20, 2014

Verified Purchase

Well written and depressingly very illuminating. It paints a worrying picture and unfortunately confirms many of the concerns I have.

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