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A Treatise on Probability Hardcover – June 1, 2007

3.9 3.9 out of 5 stars 39 ratings

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There is, first of all, the distinction between that part of our belief which is rational and that part which is not. If a man believes something for a reason which is preposterous or for no reason at all, and what he believes turns out to be true for some reason not known to him, he cannot be said to believe it rationally, although he believes it and it is in fact true. On the other hand, a man may rationally believe a proposition to be probable, when it is in fact false. -from Chapter II: Probability in Relation to the Theory of Knowledge His fame as an economist aside, John Maynard Keynes may be best remembered for saying, In the long run, we are all dead. That phrase may well be the most succinct expression of the theory of probability every uttered. For a longer explanation of the premise that underlies much of modern mathematics and science, Keynes's A Treatise on Probability is essential reading. First published in 1920, this is the foundational work of probability theory, which helped establish the author's enormous influence on modern economic and even political theories. Exploring aspects of randomness and chance, inductive reasoning and logical statistics, this is a work that belongs in the library of any interested in numbers and their application in the real world. AUTHOR BIO: British economist JOHN MAYNARD KEYNES (1883-1946) also wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), The End of Laissez-Faire (1926), The Means to Prosperity (1933), and General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936).

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Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Cosimo Inc (June 1, 2007)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 466 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1602066965
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1602066960
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.67 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.75 x 1.25 x 8.75 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    3.9 3.9 out of 5 stars 39 ratings

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3.9 out of 5 stars
3.9 out of 5
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39 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on October 1, 2023
The book came quick AND it is in terrific condition for a book from 1962. I wasn't expecting such good condition. Thank you!
Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2021
Surprisingly actual, Keynes was a great statistician as well as economist.
The details of the historical evolution of statistics are very well worth the read.
Reviewed in the United States on March 16, 2024
was looking forward to having my own copy after reading it in the library. while the books are new, the print is so light that you have to strain to read it. its especially annoying trying to review the equations.
Reviewed in the United States on May 21, 2022
keynes has decided to reinvent bayesian probability as logical analysis as a sequel to whitehead’s and russell’s principia. like the principia it is a glorious mathematical dead end. bayesian statistics has evolved along very different lines and principles from what keynes imagined. this is an indulgent early work by a legitimate genius. it is a hoot. for specialists only.
One person found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on June 8, 2017
Heavy but worthwhile read
Reviewed in the United States on April 16, 2016
If you are into statistics and probability, you should study this text. JMK explores both the logic and mathematical structure of probability analysis.

If you are not into statistics, this book will bore you to death. However, the bigger question would be why are you reading reviews of a statistical text?
6 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2013
I purchased the kindle version of this book to tide me over whilst waiting for the hard copy to arrive in the mail. This important and informative book is, in this incarnation, riddled with typographical errors. It is not unreadable but it irritates as much as it informs (and the formulae ought not to be quoted).
6 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on March 5, 2013
Truly an historical, seminal book. It changed the direction and tone for all human history, including of course economics and history.
4 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

Amazon カスタマー
1.0 out of 5 stars Bad and incorrect conversions of mathematical symbols
Reviewed in Japan on September 4, 2018
All most all mathematical symbols are entirely disfigured and are illegible. Hence, the text cannot be read. No way to recommend the book in this condition to others. No body will buy a car without four wheels.
Mr. TOUMPAS KONSTANTINOS
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 3, 2016
All time classic by the ONE ECONOMIST who rules them ALL. Respect.
Dr. David J. Marsay
4.0 out of 5 stars There is more to uncertainty than just numbers
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 20, 2009
Keynes points out some of the limitations of a numeric theory of probability, building on some of the ideas of his tutor, A.N. Whitehead, later published in  Process and Reality (Gifford lectures) . (E.g., when long-term uncertainty has to be handled differently from short-run probability.) The work underpinned his more popular  The Economic Consequences of the Peace (New Edition) , which showed that - contrary to the numeric theory - a sustained depression was likely. Keynes was encouraged by Lloyd George to write these, to capture some of the lessons identified during the Great War and the planning for the subsequent peace.

This became of more interest following the financial problems of 2007/8, which have been linked to an over-reliance on numeric measures.
2 people found this helpful
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TAKAGI Yasunobu
1.0 out of 5 stars Cannot be read!
Reviewed in Japan on February 21, 2013
This book contains failed scanned data only. You cannot read even a word.
One person found this helpful
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Amazon Customer
1.0 out of 5 stars Though there is a warning on typos it so happens ...
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 16, 2017
Though there is a warning on typos it so happens that all mathematical formulae are misprinted and do not make any sense. Since this is a mathematical book it makes no sense to sell it in this form.