Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short Kindle Edition
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“David Archibald was the first person to realize that the length of the previous sunspot cycle has a predictive power for (world) temperature in the next sunspot cycle.”
Their paper is published in the peer reviewed “Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,” v. 80 (2012.)
After inquiries which confirmed Archibald’s own research, this paper concludes that:
“Our forecast indicates an annual average temperature drop of 0.9 degrees C in the Northern Hemisphere during solar cycle 24.” P.282. How much is that? Enough to recreate the “Little Ice Age,” which saw millions die of starvation. The last winter: 2013-2014 was the coldest in 60 years, and followed three record breaking cold winters, but worse is to come.
Solar cycle 24 started in 2008, and is estimated to be 17 years long, which is the longest cycle in 350 years, but the really bad news is that one long cycle is usually followed by another. A long cycle is followed by colder weather, and cycle 25 will bring even colder weather.
“Twilight of Abundance” describes the fallout caused by the world’s starving peoples, which will happen with such an extreme change in the climate. The author gives us a sickening account of the plight of our fellow humans across North Africa and the Middle East, while making it clear that they are armed with nuclear weapons, and have not shown the West a lot of love in recent years.
A better title for this book would have been: "Twilight of Civilization."
If you are tired of the same old junk science hysteria offered by the Warmist consortium, the theories offered here are built on solid science, without the opinions of Greenpeace and the WWF.
My reaction: move South.
Anyone who follows climate science is familiar with the political nature of the IPCC and its efforts to end the use of coal, oil and gas. Dr. Judith Curry is speaking the truth when she states that scientists do not know enough about the complex climate of the world to make predictions. (The meteorologists cannot even predict local weather more then a couple of days as anyone knows.) Old people remember the scary scenarios of the 1970's when global cooling was supposed to destroy the world. This book refers to studies of the sun which indicate a cooling period ahead, and that is important to balance the war on CO2. However, the IPCC-connected people are now claiming that any climate disruption is caused by CO2.
The author obviously did not read Yergin's epic history of oil which documents Pres. Eisenhower at the end of WW2 making all federal lands off-limits to oil and gas exploration in the effort to have plenty when the next big war comes along, as oil won both WW1 and WW2....The US Government's immense assets include mineral acreage the size of Canada. It was the beginning of 'peak oil' scares to the public by government.
Another science branch that the author omitted is the abiotic origins of oil, gas and coal. Thomas Gold spent his efforts on this, and the USSR files released when it folded proved that Russian scientists used this theory to explore and expand production. Gold documents that when coal and oil were first used there were no scientific efforts to prove fossil origins; the existence of fossils where such were found was assumed to be their origins, but no technology existed then to explore the emission of methane from the earth's mantle that seeped upward. That technology now exists, and for example, new studies show the giant Permian Basin oil field in west Texas has much more oil under it than was ever extracted. Technological innovation continues to change the old picture. Why doesn't the author of this book delve into this area?
The future of energy? If we had a free market, innovation would already be under way to develop individual or neighborhood electric generators that would obsolesce the need for electric lines which are very expensive to maintain and which increasingly pose a potential of shutting down cities when the electricity goes out. Places without such availability often use individual diesel generators for dwellings. I know a ranch that is in northern Mexico that uses such. The author doesn't mention the scalability of his pet solution, which begs the question of why he is peddling it.
The consideration of a cooling period like the one 300 years ago should be a balance to the current political efforts to shut down energy for the US. This book is a good starting place for a new debate to form in the halls of the elite who rule over us.
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