- Hardcover: 256 pages
- Publisher: Crown Business; 1 edition (September 6, 2011)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 0307887650
- ISBN-13: 978-0307887658
- Product Dimensions: 5.7 x 0.9 x 8.5 inches
- Shipping Weight: 10.4 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
- Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (33 customer reviews)
- Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #119,334 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
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The Two-Second Advantage: How We Succeed by Anticipating the Future--Just Enough 1st Edition
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"The right information at the right time is often the key to breakout success. Vivek's legendary entrepreneurial track record and the deep insight that he and Kevin Maney offer into the art of information technology makes this the right book at the right time to arm the reader with the knowledge and perspective the future will demand” —Marc Andreessen, Co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, Opsware Inc. and Netscape
"Anyone interested in understanding the one common denominator of almost all long term success should read The Two-Second Advantage...organizations or even talented people don't need to have a vision of the future ten years or even ten days out. They need to accurately anticipate what’s about to happen next a split second before the competition using the right information at the right time." —Phillip Hellmuth Jr, 11-time World Series of Poker Champion and Poker Hall of Famer
"A compelling book on the 'art of anticipation' that everyone should read for every business today." —Mark V. Hurd is President of Oracle Corporation and a member of the Board of Directors.
“Ranadive and Maney convincingly show that by seeing the future we can achieve a new one. Neuroscience meets computer science and the result is profound, not to mention a great read.” —Don Tapscott, author of Wikinomics
“In an environment where the velocity of change is faster than at any other time in history, a company’s ability to capture The Two-Second Advantage can mean the difference between success and failure. Vivek articulates how leaders and organizations can use predictive processes to anticipate change and gain a competitive advantage that shapes the future of work.” —Francisco D'Souza, President and Chief Executive Officer, Cognizant
“An elegant exploration of how a company could in effect not guess, but anticipate what’s about to happen in two months from now or even an instant with right information at precisely the right time. The Two-Second Advantage is one of those rare books that shape our thinking about how companies and organizations should use technology to operate more like ‘talented’ humans.” —N Chandrasekaran, Chief Executive Officer, Tata Consultancy Services
“What does the unique scoring ability of hockey great Wayne Gretzky have to do with leading the modern organization in the digital age – how valuable is a consistent competitive advantage driven by predictive power? With these engaging and insightful examples Ranadivé and Maney explore and explain how the leaders of ‘Enterprise 3.0’ are achieving sustainable competitive advantage through the use of predictive computing.” —Thomas H. Glocer, Chief Executive Officer, Thomson Reuters
“Critically important for today’s business leaders. Customers are engaging with companies through an exploding number of channels, from mobile devices to the social universe. The concept that we can not only understand all that customer data, but make accurate and business-shaping predictions from it, puts this on the must-read list.” —Shantanu Narayen, President & CEO, Adobe Systems Incorporated
“The Two-Second Advantage is a deft compilation of research and practical examples on how by having a little bit of the right information, at the right time and context, just far enough ahead is the key ingredient for success- in business and in other fields of human endeavor…the authors offer a vital perspective on how the available predictive capabilities can help make the world a better place.” —Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum
“The challenge of today’s digital world isn’t gathering data but making sense of it quickly. The Two-Second Advantage artfully explores how having the right information, in context and at the right time, can place you ahead of the game.” —David Stern, NBA Commissioner
"Anyone interested in understanding the common thread of almost all long term success should read The Two-Second Advantage. The authors capture your imagination with this well-written and lively exploration on how by just having unique insight prior to an event helps organizations make innovative decisions and keep their competitive edge." —Chad Hurley Co-Founder of YouTube
“Get ready to rethink how you operate your business. ‘The Two-Second Advantage’ puts forth a simple but powerful notion that organizations don’t need to have a vision of the future ten years or even ten days out, they only need a little bit of the right information in the right context just far enough ahead to see an opening or opportunity an instant before the competition.” - William H. Draper III, co-founder, Sutter Hill Ventures
“The Two-Second Advantage” is based on a powerful principle – a little bit of the right information ahead of time is more valuable than piles of information too late. That insight can help you stay a half-step ahead of competitors by anticipating the always changing preferences of today’s customers and who better than Vivek to talk about it.” - Vineet Nayar, Vice Chairman & CEO, HCL Technologies Ltd and Author, Employees 1st Customers 2nd
About the Author
VIVEK RANADIVÉ is the founder and CEO of the leading international software company, TIBCO Software Inc., that enables organizations to become event-driven. He is also the co-owner and vice chairman of the Golden State Warriors NBA franchise. A frequently cited expert in the media on real-time computing, Ranadivé is the author of the New York Times bestseller The Power of Now. KEVIN MANEY writes for Fortune, The Atlantic, Fast Company, and other publications. He was the technology reporter at USA Today for more than twenty years. He is the author of the critically acclaimed books The Maverick and His Machine and Trade-Off.
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Top Customer Reviews
1) The sensationalist title and description suggest we'll be reading a useful treatment of the role predictive analytics plays in today's economy (and, that there's something particularly NEW about predictive analytics, like some recent breakthrough; or some heretofore unknown magic to the "2 seconds" referenced in the title). What we actually get is an extended blog post of randomly mixed tidbits and stories of anything where someone used a computer or a calculator to take a guess on the future, without much of an overarching thesis or structure. And, worse, mostly just stories from 10 years ago. For example, we have a guy from Reliance talk proudly about how his crack data analysts have created a churn model that predicts which mobile phone customers are likely to churn. If you think that some low-factor logistic regression model is somehow a newsworthy predictive analytics breakthrough, you've slept through your first 15 minutes of computer science classes in community college.
2) The churn prediction story at least is so simple that the book can't mess it up by its usual approach of uninformed ultra-high level discussion. Unfortunately, that's what's happening with most other stories in the book: an amateur's look at a complex topic, plus some hollow cheerleading about how more data would be cool in that situation. For example, one chapter "discusses" (not sure if I'd call it a discussion) how Wall Street traders now have models that predict what will happen in the markets. Aha. The next chapter then suggests that the Fed messed up the financial crisis of 2007 because it only finds out every 6 weeks how the economy is doing, by asking a bunch of local businessmen "how's business". (Presumably it is referring to the Fed's Beige Book.) Finally, how cool would it be if the Fed had a real-time monitor of the economy, like those Wall Street traders' models? Now - that is about the dumbest thing that I've read about the financial crisis. Take it from a former hedge fund guy. First, the Fed (like the rest of the market) obviously has a lot more frequent economic indicators than the Beige Book. Unemployment claims are released weekly; the financial crisis was presaged by a drop in home prices accurately reflected in the monthly Case Shiller index (which was also traded in the futures market); etc. Plus, the Fed has its fancy DSGE model of the US economy which surely beats the dumb Reliance churn indicator celebrated by the book in complexity by orders of magnitude. And finally, Bernanke can just pull up the stock and bond markets on his Bloomberg (which he does all the time), to see how the markets think about how the economy is doing. Second, to suggest that the Fed should just have used some of those predictive models used by traders, and it would have prevented the crisis, is just hllariously dumb. The quant hedge funds were the first ones to blow up (in August 2007!); and it was precisely forward-looking trading models that drove a significant part of the crisis. (Plus, the few hedge funds out there that did have smart views of what's happening with money and credit once the crisis played out were actively consulted by the Fed all the time.) That's not to say there isn't a hugely interesting discussion to have had about the value of economic models, whether the financial markets are really good at discounting future economic conditions in today's prices, and whether there'd be value to more real-time data sampling across the economy. But this book isn't adding anything to that discussion. It takes more than 2 seconds to think about these topics.
3) Finally, much of the book is made up of quotes like "as Wired wrote in 2011...", "as Ray Kurzweil wrote...". That's not a book, that's a blog post. If you already don't have a particularly new thesis to offer, at least compile a book that's more than just about stuff you've read elsewhere or heard someone say.
Big data IS a big deal, the abundance of data we have today in more and more industries is a relatively new thing, and our ability to manage vast quantities of data through column-oriented databases or map/reduce systems has indeed gone up. So there is a lot of room for smart discussion. That's not taking place in this book. If you want to read about the limits of statistical models, go and read Nate Silver's recent book. If you want to read about predictive models, pick up an introductory computer science book. Those at least give you information on where we stand today, and not 20 years ago.
A person who masters the art of hyperreading (300 pages in one hour) mentioned to me this theory. I was curious and definitively if you have not reviewed the topic before, it is a must read. The way it is written, makes it very easy to understand the different views about the importance of the concept.
Explaining how Cognitive Science applies to talented individuals, and extrapolating that to how we can create Talented Organizations is a stroke of business genius. No wonder TIBCO stands apart in the industry.
If IBM, Oracle, and SAP are the gorillas in the industry, TIBCO is definitely the Homo Sapiens of enterprise software.