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Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover – April 27, 2021

4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 5,151 ratings

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WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER • 2022 IPPY AWARDS GOLD MEDALIST — SCIENCE • NATIONAL INDIE EXCELLENCE AWARDS FINALIST — POLITICAL • 2021 WORLD MAGAZINE ACCESSIBLE SCIENCE BOOK OF THE YEAR — HONORABLE MENTION

"
Unsettled is a remarkable book—probably the best book on climate change for the intelligent layperson—that achieves the feat of conveying complex information clearly and in depth." Claremont Review of Books

“[Unsettled] is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity.” Wall Street Journal

"Surging sea levels are inundating the coasts."

"Hurricanes and tornadoes are becoming fiercer and more frequent."

"Climate change will be an economic disaster."

You've heard all this presented as fact. But according to science, all of these statements are profoundly misleading.

When it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that "the science is settled." In reality, the long game of telephone from research to reports to the popular media is corrupted by misunderstanding and misinformation. Core questions—about the way the climate is responding to our influence, and what the impacts will be—remain largely unanswered. The climate
is changing, but the why and how aren't as clear as you've probably been led to believe. 

Now, one of America's most distinguished scientists is clearing away the fog to explain what science really says (and doesn't say) about our changing climate. In
Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experience—including as a top science advisor to the Obama administration—to provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. 

Fascinating, clear-headed, and full of surprises, this book gives readers the tools to both understand the climate issue and be savvier consumers of science media in general. Koonin takes readers behind the headlines to the more nuanced science itself, showing us where it comes from and guiding us through the implications of the evidence. He dispels popular myths and unveils little-known truths: despite a dramatic rise in greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures actually
decreased from 1940 to 1970. What's more, the models we use to predict the future aren't able to accurately describe the climate of the past, suggesting they are deeply flawed. 

Koonin also tackles society's response to a changing climate, using data-driven analysis to explain why many proposed "solutions" would be ineffective, and discussing how alternatives like adaptation and, if necessary, geoengineering will ensure humanity continues to prosper.
Unsettled is a reality check buoyed by hope, offering the truth about climate science that you aren't getting elsewhere—what we know, what we don't, and what it all means for our future.

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From the Publisher

Wall Street Journal
cover

Rupert Darwall

Vaclav Smil

William W. Hogan

Editorial Reviews

Review

“The book is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity. And, as Mr. Koonin makes clear, few areas of science are as complex and multidisciplinary as the planet’s climate.”
Wall Street Journal

"
Unsettled teaches that we need to follow scientific knowledge as it develops, and carefully to consider the costs and benefits of different alternatives."
—Diana Furchtgott-Roth, Forbes

"Koonin . . . is an authority, in the best academic sense of the word . . .
Unsettled will be a mainstay of reference sections in heterodox critiques of the climate-catastrophe-industrial complex for years to come."
Commentary

We have too many global warming books—but this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.”
Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

“Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits.”
William W. Hogan, professor of Global Energy Policy at Harvard Kennedy School

“Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientist—and a vision of what will actually come to pass.”
Robert B. Laughlin, Stanford University

Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible.”
Bjorn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

"In a carefully researched and insightful book, Steven Koonin highlights the significant uncertainty underlying climate models and statistics, the limits of technical and political responses, and the need to reassert the core values of scientific independence and integrity that drive social progress."
—William van Wijngaarden, The Journal of the Witherspoon Institute and professor of physics at York University

“The most important book on climate science in decades.”
—Rupert Darwall, RealClearPolitics

“Fascinating and informative reading, and one hopes it will improve the climate for honest and open discussion.”
—Jonathan Tennenbaum, Asia Times

"Koonin takes his fellow scientists to task for withholding the information he presents in this book. Ironically, most of the data he reports comes directly from the very reports that are used to exaggerate the problems we face. This scientific malpractice seems mainly driven by self-interest . . . Because of this, it is time confront the true climate deniers."
—Robert M. Whaples, The Independent Review

“Koonin takes deliberate, explicit care to write dispassionately and factually . . . This book should be read by every journalist, pundit, and environmental activist, and by all politicians, policymakers, as well as their staffs.”
—Henry Bauer, Journal of Scientific Exploration

Unsettled is an excellent case study on climate science, its inherent complexity and uncertainty, and a cautionary tale on how interpretive filters in the policymaking process have shaped, and sometimes misinformed, the climate policy debate. It should on be the reading list of scientists and engineers whose responsibility, as citizens, extends beyond the laboratory to communicating to a larger public often overwhelmed and confused by the media. Policymakers and politicians will find it a source of reflection for their arguments, positions, and decisions.”
—Jean-Lou Chameau, President Emeritus, Caltech

Review

"In a carefully researched and insightful book, Steven Koonin highlights the significant uncertainty underlying climate models and statistics, the limits of technical and political responses, and the need to reassert the core values of scientific independence and integrity that drive social progress."
—William van Wijngaarden, The Journal of the Witherspoon Institute and professor of physics at York University

“The most important book on climate science in decades.”
—Rupert Darwall, RealClearPolitics

“The book is no polemic. It’s a plea for understanding how scientists extract clarity from complexity. And, as Mr. Koonin makes clear, few areas of science are as complex and multidisciplinary as the planet’s climate.”
—Mark P. Mills, Wall Street Journal

“Any reader would benefit from its deft, lucid tour of climate science, the best I’ve seen.”
—Holman W. Jenkins, Wall Street Journal

“Fascinating and informative reading, and one hopes it will improve the climate for honest and open discussion.”
—Jonathan Tennenbaum, Asia Times

“Koonin points out scientific facts supported by hard data and the peer-reviewed literature.”
—Tilak Doshi, Forbes

"Koonin takes his fellow scientists to task for withholding the information he presents in this book. Ironically, most of the data he reports comes directly from the very reports that are used to exaggerate the problems we face. This scientific malpractice seems mainly driven by self-interest . . . Because of this, it is time confront the true climate deniers."
—Robert M. Whaples, The Independent Review

“Koonin takes deliberate, explicit care to write dispassionately and factually . . . This book should be read by every journalist, pundit, and environmental activist, and by all politicians, policymakers, as well as their staffs.”
—Henry Bauer, Journal of Scientific Exploration

"Koonin . . . is an authority, in the best academic sense of the word . . .
Unsettled will be a mainstay of reference sections in heterodox critiques of the climate-catastrophe-industrial complex for years to come."
Commentary

“We have too many global warming books―but this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.”
—Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

Unsettled is an excellent case study on climate science, its inherent complexity and uncertainty, and a cautionary tale on how interpretive filters in the policymaking process have shaped, and sometimes misinformed, the climate policy debate. It should on be the reading list of scientists and engineers whose responsibility, as citizens, extends beyond the laboratory to communicating to a larger public often overwhelmed and confused by the media. Policymakers and politicians will find it a source of reflection for their arguments, positions, and decisions.”
—Jean-Lou Chameau, President Emeritus, Caltech

“Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits.”
—William W. Hogan, professor of global energy policy at Harvard Kennedy School

“Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientist―and a vision of what will actually come to pass.”
— Robert B. Laughlin, professor of physics at Stanford University

“Steve Koonin, the undersecretary for science under Obama, has written a very interesting and thoughtful book on climate. He documents how much of what you think you know about climate just ain’t so. Did you know that while the United States is now seeing many fewer cold records, absolute heat records are not increasing?
Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible.”
—Bjørn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ BenBella Books (April 27, 2021)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 320 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1950665798
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1950665792
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.1 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.25 x 1.05 x 9.31 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.7 4.7 out of 5 stars 5,151 ratings

About the author

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Steven E. Koonin
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Dr. Steven E. Koonin is a University Professor at New York University, with appointments in the Stern School of Business, the Tandon School of Engineering, and the Department of Physics. He founded NYU’s Center for Urban Science and Progress, which focuses research and education on the acquisition, integration, and analysis of big data for big cities.

Dr. Koonin served as Undersecretary for Science in the US Department of Energy under President Obama from 2009 to 2011, where his portfolio included the climate research program and energy technology strategy. He was the lead author of the US Department of Energy’s Strategic Plan (2011) and the inaugural Department of Energy Quadrennial Technology Review (2011). Before joining the government, Dr. Koonin spent five years as Chief Scientist for BP, researching renewable energy options to move the company “beyond petroleum.”

For almost thirty years, Dr. Koonin was a professor of theoretical physics at Caltech. He also served for nine years as Caltech’s Vice President and Provost, facilitating the research of more than 300 scientists and engineers and catalyzing the development of the world’s largest optical telescope, as well as research initiatives in computational science, bioengineering, and the biological sciences.

In addition to the National Academy of Sciences, Dr. Koonin’s memberships include the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and JASON, the group of scientists who solve technical problems for the US government; he served as JASON’s chair for six years. He chaired the National Academies’ Divisional Committee for Engineering and Physical Sciences from 2014 to 2019, and since 2014 has been a trustee of the Institute for Defense Analyses. He is currently an independent governor of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and has served in similar roles for the Los Alamos, Sandia, Brookhaven, and Argonne National Laboratories. He is a member of Governor Cuomo’s Blue Ribbon Commission to Reimagine New York in the post-COVID-19 era.

Dr. Koonin has a BS in Physics from Caltech and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from MIT. He is an award-winning classroom teacher and his public lectures are noted for their clarity in conveying complex subjects. He is the author of the classic 1985 textbook Computational Physics, which introduced methodology for building computer models of complex physical systems. He has published some 200 peer-reviewed papers in the fields of physics and astrophysics, scientific computation, energy technology and policy, and climate science, and has been the lead author on multiple book-length reports, including two National Academies studies.

Through a series of articles and lectures that began in 2014, Dr. Koonin has advocated for a more accurate, complete, and transparent public representation of climate and energy matters.

Customer reviews

4.7 out of 5 stars
5,151 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the information in the book to be well-researched and excellent. They also describe the book as incredibly well-written, clear, concise, and impressive. Readers appreciate the balanced and objective view of the current state of climate.

AI-generated from the text of customer reviews

300 customers mention "Information quality"288 positive12 negative

Customers find the book's information quality excellent. They say it summarizes a wealth of scientific inquiry on the subject of changing climate. Readers appreciate the author's ability to teach the science without dumbing it down. They also say the book provides deeper insight by presenting data and graphs.

"This book provides a deeper insight to the readers by presenting data and graphs to help us understand the narrative without gaslighting us like..." Read more

"...Reading this books was great fun and tremendous learning experience. I hope you will enjoy it too" Read more

"I could add reasoned to the title as well. This is as an objective look at climate change. I was skeptical when I first started this book...." Read more

"...There are several books on climate change but this book is one of the most comprehensive I’ve seen...." Read more

257 customers mention "Readability"240 positive17 negative

Customers find the book incredibly well-written, clear, and concise. They appreciate the author's skill to communicate details with clarity. Readers also say it's fun to read the text portions.

"...The clarity of his prose, the objective tone, and the forthrightness of his convictions impressed me...." Read more

"...However, I was really impressed with the lucidity with which Steven Koonin talks about one of the "hottest" problems of our generation...." Read more

"...I found this book very interesting, informative, and refreshing. He tackles the hot topic of climate change as a true professional." Read more

"...all the charts and graphs in the first half of the book, it is well worth the read...." Read more

36 customers mention "Balance"36 positive0 negative

Customers find the book provides a balanced, even-tempered explanation of the science behind climate. They say it's objective and gives valuable perspective. Readers also appreciate the honest and truthful look at current climate.

"...by Steven E. Koonin and as a sceptic, I must say that this book provided a balanced and nuanced view on the topic of climate change...." Read more

"...(even if it is alongside something more alarmist) because it helps balance the picture...." Read more

"...II discussion of mitigation strategies is therefore appropriate and realistic…not a surrender to the oil and gas producers as argued by his critics...." Read more

"...in climate change should read this book to get a transparent, balanced, thoughtful treatment supported by science...." Read more

23 customers mention "Political content"13 positive10 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the political content of the book. Some mention it's non-political, ideological, and even-handed. Others say it tells outright lies about the state of our planet and exposes non-rational propaganda.

"...clarity of his prose, the objective tone, and the forthrightness of his convictions impressed me...." Read more

"...: The painful part of reading this book is that Koonin reframes each point in a cynical, and faulty-logic way...." Read more

"...It is easy to understand and he makes his point quite clear. Every point he makes in his book he has references to back up what he writes...." Read more

"...The first half of the book can be a little stultifying, but it's necessary to provide background and create credibility...." Read more

11 customers mention "Effectiveness"7 positive4 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the effectiveness of the book. Some mention it provides reasonable and achievable solutions, while others say it's inaccurate, unreliable, and limited.

"...This book does an excellent job at countering and pointing this out...." Read more

"...computer modeling because it has proven woefully inaccurate and reliably unreliable...." Read more

"...Debunked the climate hysteria and provided reasonable and achievable solutions...." Read more

"...I find his work very thorough and thought provoking, albeit if difficult to follow for a layman...." Read more

Very good book about how all models are not benchmarked with available data
5 out of 5 stars
Very good book about how all models are not benchmarked with available data
He is also on our IPCC review team and in a movie on YouTube called Climate the Movie the cold truth. Our book is published and on amazon for sale.
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Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on October 28, 2021
Unsettled – Book Review by Michael J. Murray
A Master Teacher Explains Climate Science
A while ago, I read a WSJ Op Ed article Steven Koonin about our changing climate. The clarity of his prose, the objective tone, and the forthrightness of his convictions impressed me. Dr. Koonin, after having attended recent international conferences on climate change, expressed concern that many of the participants lacked a deep understanding of their subject. They were regarding as “settled” certain climate projections that still needed to undergo the rigorous checks and balances of the scientific method. Only a scientist of substantial intellectual clout would venture such a bold statement.
Koonin’s credentials as a climatologist are impeccable – BS in physics from Cal Tech, PhD in theoretical physics from MIT, award-winning classroom teacher, five years as chief scientist for British Petroleum, researching renewable energy options, Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy under President Obama. This experience in the three spheres that most influence climate science – the scientific, the business, and the political - affords him a unique perspective from which to judge the large and intricate picture. He is certainly not a climate denier and understands the effect of humans on greenhouse gases.
I bought a copy of “Unsettled” as a concerned citizen, eager to learn more about a controversial subject that looms large in current world affairs. Reading its 255 pages of text, I learned much about the scope and depth of climate research with its complexity of variables, especially those used to construct models projecting world climate 50 or 100 years from now, a subject that has fueled much heated debate.
The organization of “Unsettled” facilitates understanding. Its Table of Contents and Introduction set a clear path. It contains 24 pages of thorough notes, and its Index conveniently allows for backchecking and cross referencing if the reader so chooses.
“Unsettled” has two parts. The first deals with the science of changing climate; the second with responses “society might make to those changes.” Part I contains specific chapters about our current knowledge of climate study, human influences on greenhouse gases, emissions, climate models, hurricanes, precipitation and fires, and sea levels.
Koonin doesn’t lecture about climate science. Rather, he guides the reader, chapter by chapter, through each strand of the science, attentive always to the larger picture. And his use of graphs to do this is brilliant. The 85 graphs in “Unsettled,” far from being scholarly decorations, serve as illuminative teaching instruments in the spirit of one picture being worth 1,000 words, and in conjunction with the author’s astute commentary provide the reader with a good sense of the challenges posed by this highly complex field of study.
Several graphs come from the reports of prestigious world climate organizations such as the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) with its consequential ARs (Assessment Reports), and the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) reports. This affords the reader a glimpse at some of the actual data discussed at high-level international conferences
“Unsettled” also presents a cogent argument in favor of the scientific method. Dr. Koonin, his tone always civil and dispassionate, draws a contrast between “The Science” and science. “The Science” refers to the fashionable narrative that predictions of climate doom are settled matters because “The Science” says they are. True science, of course, is never settled, or is so merely in an ephemeral way. The method of science is to probe and test ideas and theories, objectively scrutinizing the data, trying to replicate experiments, testing for flaws. It applies whether a theory has existed for three years or three centuries. It is the most effective tool we have for ascertaining the validity of a scientific theory.
Throughout “Unsettled” Koonin maintains that science ought to inform, not persuade. Science is not advertising. To illustrate, he refers to a commencement speech at Cal Tech in 1974, given by his former teacher and colleague, the legendary physicist Richard Feynman. Feynman exhorted the graduates “to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contributions; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.”
Feynman referred to a TV ad for cooking oil that claimed its oil “doesn’t soak through food.” While that statement is not untrue, Feynman said, it lacks scientific integrity because no oil soaks through food, or all oils do, depending on the temperature. Koonin’s book contains a number of examples of such specious presentations in climate science reporting that present the part for the whole and that lack scientific integrity not by lying but rather the sin of omission.
Dr. Koonin, who has been tracking the misrepresentation of climate science by politicians and the media since 2017, recommends a Red Team exercise for examining climate Assessment Reports. The Red Team, a group of qualified scientists, would scrutinize one of the Assessment Reports trying to find “What’s wrong with this argument?” A Blue Team, the Report’s authors, could then rebut the Red findings. He advocates such safeguards because the “processes for drafting and reviewing the climate science assessment reports do not promote objectivity.”
I am not a scientist. I taught high school English with some stints in college for 45 years and appreciate good teaching. Reading “Unsettled” was like taking a course by a master teacher, who could break down a complex subject into a series of simple steps and rebuild it again to this reader’s delight.
106 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on August 22, 2024
This book provides a deeper insight to the readers by presenting data and graphs to help us understand the narrative without gaslighting us like many politicians, journalists, and climate activists. Highly recommend it to anyone who is interested in understanding the top of climate change at an intellectual level.
Reviewed in the United States on September 18, 2022
I think title of this review summarizes why Steven Koonin wrote this book. Climate change is one of the most politicized topic of the last decade. Every time you turn on TV you hear "expert" opinions that seemingly leave no room for ambiguity and present climate science as a completely settled discipline. If you ask those experts more detailed questions e.g. about the data supporting their arguments you quickly discover that they often draw their knowledge from headlines or (at best) short articles in a popular press.

This is where Koonin's book shines. He does not argue with the, so called, "experts" , he presents facts - backed by publicly available data, and explains in layman terms what climate science is about - what are the problems it is trying to solve, what are the methods contemporary climate scientists use, what are the benefits and limitations of current methods and finally he answers the most important question: can we fully rely on current mathematical models, and observations to draw unambiguous conclusions about future of climate. And this is where the title of the book comes into play. Turns out that many things that "experts" sell you as an absolute truth about climate are "unsettled" at best. Koonin is a physicist (and a Democrat - so that you don't have to worry about political bias) and he has a rare gift of explaining difficult concepts in a way that is accessible to a broad audience. The book reads more like a spy novel than a boring scientific discourse. In fact there is nothing that could be referred as boring in Koonin's book. He takes on and answers very important questions about climate, climate evolution and our methods to predict future climate gyrations.

You don't have to be scientist to read, understand and enjoy this book. If you are, however, you definitely should read it because after finishing it you will have much deeper understanding of why relying on headlines to learn about climate science is a really a bad idea.

I admit that I did not appreciate complexity of climate change before reading the book. In fact, I did not care much about this field at all . However, I was really impressed with the lucidity with which Steven Koonin talks about one of the "hottest" problems of our generation. Reading this books was great fun and tremendous learning experience. I hope you will enjoy it too
20 people found this helpful
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Reviewed in the United States on August 19, 2024
I could add reasoned to the title as well. This is as an objective look at climate change. I was skeptical when I first started this book. As I continued to read,it became obvious that Steven Koonin believes in science and does not let his biases dictate the facts. I found this book very interesting, informative, and refreshing. He tackles the hot topic of climate change as a true professional.

Top reviews from other countries

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Ramon
5.0 out of 5 stars Una verdad que incomoda a la mayoría de la población.
Reviewed in Mexico on August 16, 2022
El autor fue parte del gabinete de Obama, desempeño el papel de subsecretario de energía. Analizo el calentamiento global y en este libro desarrolla su idea de que NO HAY PRUEBAS EXACTAS DE QUE LOS HUMANOS ESTAMOS CAUSANDO EL CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL, de ahí el nombre "unsettled". Comenta que los contaminantes que generamos los humanos afectan al ambiente pero de una forma muy muy diminuta. Mediante decenas de gráficas y estadísticas demuestra su argumento.

Sin duda un libro que abre los ojos en cuanto este tema. Muy recomendado!
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Ramon
5.0 out of 5 stars Una verdad que incomoda a la mayoría de la población.
Reviewed in Mexico on August 16, 2022
El autor fue parte del gabinete de Obama, desempeño el papel de subsecretario de energía. Analizo el calentamiento global y en este libro desarrolla su idea de que NO HAY PRUEBAS EXACTAS DE QUE LOS HUMANOS ESTAMOS CAUSANDO EL CALENTAMIENTO GLOBAL, de ahí el nombre "unsettled". Comenta que los contaminantes que generamos los humanos afectan al ambiente pero de una forma muy muy diminuta. Mediante decenas de gráficas y estadísticas demuestra su argumento.

Sin duda un libro que abre los ojos en cuanto este tema. Muy recomendado!
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Bill
5.0 out of 5 stars The science of climate change is far from settled.
Reviewed in Canada on October 10, 2021
When I first saw was in the Obama administration, and his basic bio I thought it would be another brainless climate change hype, but was pleasantly surprised by his objective and well researched position. He is highly critical of the climate computer models. He quotes "all models are wrong, but some are interesting". Great read, and I wish every media pundit and politician would read Koonin's book. You don't need to agree with everything he says, but you need to have a reasoned opposition argument. He differentiates between The Science and science. In this day and age we need to read and follow science, The Science is not much more than ideology.
Malicki
5.0 out of 5 stars Tolles Buch über Klima.
Reviewed in Germany on August 30, 2024
Sachlich, ohne jegliche Emotionen. Auch für Laien verständlich.
Nicholas Herbert
5.0 out of 5 stars A must read book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 5, 2024
An evidence based look at the real issues. Well constructed arguments, easy to read, gives a balanced understanding of one of today's most important yet misrepresented concerns.
Michael
5.0 out of 5 stars Vad alla bör veta
Reviewed in Sweden on March 8, 2024
Boken lyfter människors medvetenhet om att alarmismen i världen inte är så som den framförs i media och av vissa politiker. Det är bättre att skaffa sig en egen uppfattning genom kunskap.