I read this book from a perspective unlike most people who read it. It is an academic book, but I read it as a campaign operative. While there are more and more organizations both liberal and conservative analyzing what really works in campaigns and elections and what doesn’t, there just isn’t enough scholarship on electoral politics. Home state advantage for a vice presidential candidate is, perhaps, one of the most commonly held beliefs about presidential campaigns, but Drs. Devine and Kopko debunk much of the lore around this idea.
They look at home state advantage from every angle statistically and historically as you would expect from academic writing, and found that there are effects but they are limited and diminish as the state becomes larger. In fact, they found only one example of when a vice presidential candidate could have turned the tide: the 2000 presidential election between George Bush and Al Gore. Since any state had the ability to decide this election, a popular figure in a small state like Jeanne Shaheen would have changed the outcome of the race. Outside of this edge case, the impact of home state advantage just isn’t there.
I wondered after reading the book if vice presidential choices affect the performance of the presidential much at all. The authors suggested as much when they recounted the relatively insignificant duties of the vice president. It would be interesting to see though if other factors have a greater impact on the ticket’s performance. Maybe Bill Clinton’s model of choosing someone that doubles down on the presidential candidate’s own strengths increased turnout among his base of support. Perhaps you can split the ticket by gender, race, or other constituency group in a globalized world better than by geography. I suppose those are other books…
I hope more non-academics read this book. Maybe it will reduce mass media’s and the talking heads’ discussion about vice presidential contenders and home state advantage!
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