The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse: Pettis, Michael: 9780195143300: Amazon.com: Books

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The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse 1st Edition

by Michael Pettis (Author)

4.6 37 ratings

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This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this
model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture.

Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.

ISBN-10

0195143302
ISBN-13

978-0195143300
Edition

1st
Publisher

Oxford University Press
Publication date

May 17, 2001
Language

English
Dimensions

9.44 x 0.84 x 6.43 inches
Print length

272 pages
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Customer reviews

4.6 out of 5

37 global ratings

5 star		75%
4 star		14%
3 star		5%
2 star		6%
1 star 0% (0%)		0%

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A must read for understanding macroeconomic's relationship to the financial markets

Reviewed in the United States on September 5, 2009

Verified Purchase

This is one of the very best books on macroeconomic finance and the relationship between liquidity and volatility. I am absolutely using this book for my thesis and was inspired enough to contact the author to try to learn more about his work.

The volatility machine goes into great detail about financial crisis of multiple periods. Unlike other authors who skate through the details, only looking at a few of their favorite crises, Petis incorporates work as far back as financial data has existed. As a result, his conclusions are more fleshed out than many of the more recent books that have been written on the topic. He also - unlike so many other economic writers - has solid financial experience; a big plus for practitioners. His ideas of volatility and it's relationship to liquidity and financial crisis are really unique in a nuanced way. They are practical and theoretical all at once.

This should be read by anyone who is interested in financial crisis or happens to work in any area of financial products that are impacted by liquidity (basically every financial product). It clearly links macroeconomics, volatility, and financial asset pricing/risk together.

If I could give it 6 stars if I would.

10 people found this helpful

Clear, compelling

Reviewed in the United States on December 30, 2012

Verified Purchase

This is a surprisingly original and lucid explanation of the engine of financial crisis. Pettis brings his deep understanding of bond markets to bear on crises from Mexico to East Asia and illuminates how countries' careless management of their national accounts creates risks that are in end end more important than the policy reforms that we typically associate with investment booms--and the policy failures we blame for busts. Corporate finance and development economics are two disciplines that rarely meet. This book shows that they should.

The second half may be hard going for casual readers without a background in corporate finance.

5 people found this helpful

Very relevant book in 2013

Reviewed in the United States on July 17, 2013

Verified Purchase

Pettis postulates in this book that every emerging market debt crisis in modern history is the result of liquidity withdrawal in developed countries. Very relevant in 2013 as the US begins to reconsider its fiscal policy of regular liquidity injections. With Argentina's economy already on the ropes and slowdowns in Mexico and Brazil happening, will Latin America see another wave of defaults that ripple through the global economy? How will it all go down? The historical examples in this book offer a roadmap to possible near-future events.

2 people found this helpful

Amazon Customer

A very good book with a some gems of advice on what reallys triggers a financial crisis

Reviewed in the United States on May 26, 2013

Verified Purchase

A good account of a number of finanical crisis and what actually is the chief cause, liquidity & credit tightening from the large global commerical banks, I havn't seen many writers come to this conclusion and the evidence is very strong. I think "the great rebalancing" was better, just becuase it was written in a more clear style.

But well worth the read for insightful and sensible aproach to assessing sovereign risk, some real gems in here for investors.

2 people found this helpful

Excellent book.

Reviewed in the United States on January 20, 2015

Verified Purchase

For insight into sovereign debt and how money is created out of nothing. And what this means for a civil society read this book.
Pettis also has a blog you can check out. His analysis is completely informed by his expereince and world travels. He currently resides in China and gives insightful perspective on how the global finacial systems run and why there can be systemic risk. Excellent book.

Dr. Pettis' China Site has been suspended

Reviewed in the United States on February 9, 2012

Verified Purchase

Sorry if this a bit off topic, but I think it's worth noting for anyone interested in the markets and/or China (especially if it continues).

[...]

This is Dr. Petti's blog about the Chinese Economy, "China Financial Markets". He lives in China and his comments are not always flattering.

And yes, his book is well worth reading. So is his blog.

Edit:
Why are links disabled?
mpettis.com/cgi-sys/suspendedpage.cgi

great insights on emerging markets crisis

Reviewed in the United States on February 21, 2015

Verified Purchase

Michael Pettis highlights the importance of the liability side of a sovereigns balance sheet and not just asset side which is important.
Crisis invariably occurs as easy liquidity stops in developed countries and money flows out of emerging markets.
The ones which create natural hedges and think long term fare better in times of stress.

Insightful framework and extensive history of EM crises

Reviewed in the United States on December 11, 2018

Verified Purchase

Excellent work for anyone interested in the history of EM crises and a market oriented framework for thinking about EM risk.

Top reviews from other countries

Stefan M Wasilewski

You should read this before your MBA

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 16, 2015

Verified Purchase

The title says it all. Fundamental misunderstandings in capital management have been at fault across both the corporate and sovereign markets resulting in frequent crises. Crises should not be, cannot be, removed but managed and Pettis presents a good first step

J

IMO should be read by every economics policy maker

Reviewed in Canada on October 19, 2015

Verified Purchase

Economic history, asset booms, excess liquidity, lending booms, global economic cycles, emerging markets meltdowns and more! Pettis views the economy through an interesting balance sheet approach. I've been a long time reader of his blog and have always been amazed by his knowledge and sharp analysis; the book did not disappoint me.

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