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Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes Paperback – October 2, 2018

by Richard A. Clarke (Author), R.P. Eddy (Author)
4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 543 ratings
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From President Bill Clinton's recommended reading list

Publishers Weekly Bestseller

Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization.

In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, the spread of viruses and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters—from cyber attacks to pandemics—but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?

 Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, malware attacks, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.

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  1. Print length
    416 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Ecco
  4. Publication date
    October 2, 2018
  5. Dimensions
    5.31 x 0.94 x 8 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0062488031
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0062488039
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Fascinating. Richard Clarke and R. P. Eddy try to construct a science that separates the true prophets from the fantasists. It’s a fascinating account, and oh, if we’d only paid attention…!” — Lawrence Wright, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Looming Tower and The Terror Years

“Dick Clarke and R.P. Eddy know what they are talking about-this is not a book about miracles, it is a book about how to recognize warnings in a very dangerous world.” — Leon Panetta, former Secretary of Defense

“Now, more than ever, you should read this book and learn from two of the very best. A gripping read and a brilliant view of an uncertain future. Clarke and Eddy deliver veteran insights all leaders need to hear.” — General Michael Hayden (Ret.), former CIA director

“Clarke and Eddy’s veteran insight will be required reading for those who want to win in a future dominated by technologies and national security threats most haven’t even begun to ponder.” — Senator George Mitchell

“In Warnings, Clarke and Eddy turn mythology into sociology and anecdote into analysis in a way that is both enlightening and important for averting catastrophes.” — Garry Kasparov, author of Winter Is Coming and 13th World Chess Champion

“Warnings is an important book, vividly presenting a way for leaders to make crucial decisions.” — Henry Kissinger

“A must read. In an increasingly risky world, finding people who see around corners is key―but once you’ve found them, it’s just as important to listen. We need to listen to Clarke and Eddy, their leadership and vision has been second to none for decades, and they are right again.” — William Bratton, former NYPD Commissioner

From the Back Cover

Millions of lives lost to catastrophes—natural and man-made—could have been saved by the advance warnings of experts. Two CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans reveal insider views of previous disasters, chilling insights on today’s threats to mankind, and a prescription to protect us. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Ecco; Reprint edition (October 2, 2018)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 416 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0062488031
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0062488039
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 10.9 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.31 x 0.94 x 8 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 543 ratings

About the authors

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  1. Richard A. Clarke

    Richard A. Clarke

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    I started writing books after a thirty year career in government writing bureaucratic papers. It was quite a shift. Cyber War is my fifth book and my third non-fiction. People often ask which genre do you prefer to write, fiction or non-fiction? They are both a challenge and both are exciting to attempt. Fiction may be the greater challenge, because of the need for imagination, characterization, dialogue, and plot twists. Non-fiction may actually have some real world effects. I've posted excerpts and other information on my web page; www.richardaclarke.net.

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  2. R.P. Eddy

    R.P. Eddy

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    R.P. Eddy is a globally recognized national security and intelligence expert. He is CEO of Ergo, a leading intelligence and analysis firm. Previously, he served as Director at the White House National Security Council, Chief of Staff to the US Ambassador to the UN, Richard Holbrooke, Senior Adviser to the Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson, and Senior Policy Officer to the Secretary-General of the UN, where he served as an architect of the Global Fund to Prevent AIDS, TB, and Malaria. Eddy was a member of the State Department Senior Executive Service and achieved the diplomatic rank of Minister-Counselor. Eddy was a Managing Director at the Gerson Lehrman Group and a Team Leader at the Monitor Group. The World Economic Forum at Davos honored him as a “Global Leader for Tomorrow.” He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Board of the Middle East Institute. He has been a Senior Fellow or associate at Harvard University, the Madison Policy Forum, and the Manhattan Institute. Eddy is co-author, with Richard A. Clarke, of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes,” a forthcoming book to be published by HarperCollins. He has a B.Sc. in Neuroscience from Brown University.

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Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
543 global ratings

Customers say

Customers find the book fascinating, interesting, and pleasant. They describe the information as thought-provoking, informative, and valuable. Readers also mention the book is highly readable, clear, and well-written. They describe the stories as suspenseful, thrilling, and unsettling.

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ReadabilityInformation qualityReadableSuspenseful storyPacingNarrative quality
57 customers mention "Readability"57 positive0 negative

Customers find the book fascinating, interesting, and pleasant. They say it's thrilling and worth the effort. Readers also mention the book provides a great review of physical, economic, and social disasters.

"...The profiles are riveting and the book reads well...." Read more

"...In general this book is a great review of physical, economic, and social disasters we presently face...." Read more

"...ability to write about nearly any subject matter in an exciting and titillating manner, his work often reads like a thrilling spy novel...." Read more

"Good enough read but skipped through some as too much information" Read more

40 customers mention "Information quality"38 positive2 negative

Customers find the book thought-provoking, interesting, and well-researched. They say it provides valuable perspectives from a White House insider. Readers also mention the facts are presented eloquently and systematically.

"...might be needed to test their framework, but this book provides an important and fascinating look at how to distinguish those among us we should..." Read more

"...It is as insightful, informative, and thrilling as all of Clarke's other books...." Read more

"Easy to read, and offers a process for evaluating Cassandras and major challenges in n the absence of exhaustive data in order to prevent or..." Read more

"...The Cassandras past and present are well chosen, and their stories well told...." Read more

17 customers mention "Readable"13 positive4 negative

Customers find the book highly readable, well-written, and clear. They also say it's well-sourced.

"Easy to read, and offers a process for evaluating Cassandras and major challenges in n the absence of exhaustive data in order to prevent or..." Read more

"...It is clear. well written and easy to understand. Obviously, it is as relevant today as it was when it was written...." Read more

"A well written and erudite explanation of the "Cassandra" effect in which warnings are given and then ignored...." Read more

"A bit tedious to read, especially the chapter explaining how their Cassandra theory works, but otherwise a very interesting book...." Read more

15 customers mention "Suspenseful story"15 positive0 negative

Customers find the stories interesting, engaging, and thrilling. They say the book is a fascinating presentation of past crises and future threats. Readers also mention the book is provocative and well-written.

"...I found it to be a fascinating presentation of past crises, as well as future threats...." Read more

"...The Cassandras past and present are well chosen, and their stories well told...." Read more

"...Don't waste your time with this book. I'll admit the initial stories were very interesting, but their framework is suspect and if you are interested..." Read more

"A thoroughly thought out book, and good first hand interviews of many of the professionals who were ignored and who are now currently being ignored...." Read more

8 customers mention "Pacing"8 positive0 negative

Customers find the book well-presented, thought-out, and remarkable. They say it provides an important and fascinating look at how to distinguish global disasters.

"...to test their framework, but this book provides an important and fascinating look at how to distinguish those among us we should heed in order to..." Read more

"...loved the case studies in Warnings and found the book insightful and remarkable." Read more

"A thoroughly thought out book, and good first hand interviews of many of the professionals who were ignored and who are now currently being ignored...." Read more

"The brief list of past and future potential global disasters are well described and unsettling. I hope the right people read and act on these threats." Read more

5 customers mention "Narrative quality"0 positive5 negative

Customers find the narrative repetitive, frustrating, confusing, and tiresome. They also say it's not very interesting.

"...I guess I need my own fact checker(!) In my defense, the narrative is a bit confusing in his lead up to an identification of the exercise...." Read more

"Not really very interesting." Read more

"Frustrating, chilling and eye-opening. Don't read it before you go to bed..." Read more

"Tiresome, Simple Minded, and Overlong..." Read more

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Top reviews from the United States

Amazon User
5.0 out of 5 stars Offers useful framework to separate charlatan from seer
Reviewed in the United States on May 25, 2017
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At its core, this is a book about human stories--stories about people that have the "gift" of foresight, but the "curse" that nobody will listen to them. The profiles are riveting and the book reads well.

The authors have done a great job drawing upon their unique experiences in government and business to provide context and bring the "characters" and their stories to life. They weave in a healthy dose of geopolitics, science, and finance that makes for an engaging read.

The catastrophes foretold will be familiar to most readers, as will many of the the warnings. Hopefully, the individuals highlighted in the second half of the book (the warnings) never graduate to Cassandra status, but all of the identified warnings merit deeper examination--fortunately, this book helps spark that conversation.

Most significant, however, Clarke and Eddy provide readers a useful lens of analysis to help separate seer from charlatan. Further academic research might be needed to test their framework, but this book provides an important and fascinating look at how to distinguish those among us we should heed in order to avert catastrophe from the crazy bearded guys with sandwich boards predicting the end is nigh.
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Matthew Rapaport
4.0 out of 5 stars A good look at what makes a Cassandra and why we should listen to them
Reviewed in the United States on June 21, 2019
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In Greek myth, Cassandra, a daughter of the king and queen of Troy, could see the future but was cursed in that no one would believe her. This is a book about modern Cassandras and what might be done better to pay attention to what they say.

Dr.'s Eddy and Clarke use the first half of the book to describe the characteristics of a modern Cassandra. Importantly, these are not doom and gloom sayers who happen to get predictions right from time to time. Instead they focus on acknowledged experts in particular subjects who, being heavily involved with the real data of their field, see something that others miss. As with the original Cassandra, they are often (though not always) not believed.

Many future (and not so future) disaster predictions are investigated. Climate change, epidemics, artificial intelligence, hurricanes, economic collapse, asteroid strikes, war, earthquakes, and so on. In the first half of the book the authors use various such predictions that have already come true to build up a profile of modern Cassandras and the other actors involved in the process of receiving the warnings and doing something about them -- or more often not doing enough. The book's second half then explores a number of predictions, again by acknowledged experts, and evaluates them based on the criteria emerging from those events that have already come to pass.

Of course the people (and predictions) selected are chosen precisely because there are genuine experts warning about these potentially future disasters. In some cases (for example climate change) there is nothing really new here. I saw an article about sea level rise, thanks to industrial carbon emissions, from a major American newspaper dated 1900! That's right, almost 120 years ago the process was already understood. The difference today is that we are closer to the on rushing train wreck and there is more data, and more experts who can more accurately envision the future picture. So climate change in particular (besides those who deny it is man made for political reasons) is a problem for which there is no real practical solution. Yes modern civilization will be bankrupted by the effect and collapse, likely in the next 75 years. The problem is, mitigating the impact now in any effective way (if there even is such a possibility), would just as surely bankrupt the world and this would have been just as true if the world had woken up to the problem in 1950!

In general this book is a great review of physical, economic, and social disasters we presently face. The tireless work of the modern Cassandras and the nature of the problems addressed are not at all in question. The real problems here always fall on the other end, with the agencies who would be charged with preventing or mitigating the disaster. By the time some disasters are recognized by the wider public and the responsible agencies it is far too late to do much about them.

The authors spend considerable effort wrestling with this matter; the difficulty of taking effective action against the problem even when the Cassandra is believed. The last part of the book is dedicated to suggestions for mitigating the prevention/mitigation failures. If that sounds odd it signals the main problem with the author's suggestions, their futility! The very first Cassandra they explore, a man WHOSE JOB IT WAS TO WARN OF PENDING WAR, who worked for the "office of warnings" (intelligence agency) and who did clearly and unambiguously warn the Pentagon and presidential administration (the elder Bush) that Saddam Hussein was about to invade Kuwait, was not believed!

In a sense then this book enlightens us about a profound truth. No amount of preparation for the discovery of on-coming disasters will ever succeed, having discovered one, at getting responsible parties to take action; something that almost always means, among other things, allocate lots and lots of money! The authors do enumerate the various reasons for failure to act and they are absolutely right about them. What they don't see is that one or more of these reasons pertain in one way or another to every disaster-at-hand, and they will almost always succeed in blocking effective action. There are genuine Cassandras who correctly forecast (and not merely "guess at") disasters. But what the myth of Cassandra teaches us is that it is human nature to disbelieve these warnings and nothing is going to change that!
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5.0 out of 5 stars Clarke is one of my favorite authors and I have read all of his books
Reviewed in the United States on June 14, 2017
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Richard A. Clarke is one of my favorite authors and I have read all of his books, both fiction and non-fiction. One of my favorite things about Clarke is his ability to write about nearly any subject matter in an exciting and titillating manner, his work often reads like a thrilling spy novel. He is one of the most knowledgeable experts in terrorism, national security, and cyber security.

I was greatly looking forward to reading this book and I was not disappointed. It is as insightful, informative, and thrilling as all of Clarke's other books. I found the first half of the book particularly helpful in that the authors so clearly demonstrated how easily disasters can occur despite the fact that there is an expert warning about the impending catastrophe and they often have concrete data to back up their assertions.

I thoroughly enjoyed reading this book. Richard A. Clarke is a national treasure and I very much look forward to his next book.
38 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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todd betts
5.0 out of 5 stars Fascinating Book
Reviewed in Canada on March 23, 2022
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Really enjoyed it. Recommended.
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 15, 2017
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Excellent read, useful insights
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Scary but with a proposal of what to do about these problems
Reviewed in Japan on August 24, 2017
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Clear, factual and well referenced presentation. No simple matters, of course, but the authors give a reasoned proposal for how to defeat humanities self-destructive tendencies. There is some very interesting information on technological and natural issues we all face, and the sources presented will make for long, continued study in several areas for the curious mind.
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Marc Twane
5.0 out of 5 stars A wonderful read. A fascinating well documented book
Reviewed in Canada on July 23, 2017
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A wonderful read. A fascinating well documented book. It tell us about the evidenced-based research that could have mitigated or in some cases prevented major events that have occurred throughout the world. More uniquely is the description as to why governments ignored these Cassandras!
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Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 stars Who knew
Reviewed in Canada on July 6, 2017
Verified Purchase
Awesome read! Thanks to the author for the insightful information provided. Why is it always a conspiracy when someone takes the data and puts it in front of us and those in power reject it. Global warming is a prime example.
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