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Jonathan V. Last

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What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster Hardcover – February 5, 2013

by Jonathan V. Last (Author)

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Look around you and think for a minute: Is America too crowded?

For years, we have been warned about the looming danger of overpopulation: people jostling for space on a planet that’s busting at the seams and running out of oil and food and land and everything else.

It’s all bunk. The population bomb” never exploded. Instead, statistics from around the world make clear that since the 1970s, we’ve been facing exactly the opposite problem: people are having too few babies. Population growth has been slowing for two generations. The world’s population will peak, and then begin shrinking, within the next fifty years. In some countries, it’s already started. Japan, for instance, will be half its current size by the end of the century. In Italy, there are already more deaths than births every year. China’s One-Child Policy has left that country without enough women to marry its men, not enough young people to support the country’s elderly, and an impending population contraction that has the ruling class terrified.

And all of this is coming to America, too. In fact, it’s already here. Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that farthey have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too.

What happened? Everything about modern lifefrom Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulationshas pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.

What to Expect When No One’s Expecting explains why the population implosion happened and how it is remaking culture, the economy, and politics both at home and around the world.

Because if America wants to continue to lead the world, we need to have more babies.

Print length

240 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Encounter Books
Publication date

February 5, 2013
Dimensions

8 x 0.75 x 5.5 inches
ISBN-10

1594036411
ISBN-13

978-1594036415
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Editorial Reviews

From Bookforum

The UN projects that world population, currently around seven billion, will peak over the next eighty-five years between ten billion and twelve billion people before starting a long and inexorable decline. Which is, Last argues, precisely the real cataclysm humanity faces. An extremely sharp writer with a great eye for telling details and revealing anecdotes What To Expect When No One's Expecting is a rich and detailed read, well worth the price of admission just for Last's cogent summarizing of long-term demographic trends. —Nick Gillespie

Review

"A powerful argument that the only thing worse than having children is not having them. I'm reading What To Expect When No One's Expecting aloud to the three little arguments for birth control at my house in hope they'll quit squabbling and making messes and start acting so cute that all my neighbors decide to conceive."

P.J. O’Rourke, Author of Holidays in Heck

This book explodes old ways of thinking. Not moralizing, not blaming, Jonathan Last peers methodically ahead at the cold consequences of plunging global birth rates: aging and ever smaller national populations, the fatal destruction of the financial premises of the welfare state, disappearing military strength. He describes the comfortable, happy childlessness chosen by more and more highly educated coupleslives of personal contentment, yes, but with unutterably sad national consequences. We are left to draw conclusions ourselves: The use of sex is not simply personal; the future of the whole human race hangs on it. Those who missed Ben Wattenberg’s The Birth Dearth (1987) have another chance to be shaken awake by the earthquake rumbling louder and faster beneath us.”

Michael Novak, recipient of the Templeton Prize (1994), and author of The Spirit of Democratic Capitalism

"Jonathan Last provides us with a well-written, well-argued description of one of the most profound, yet poorly understood phenomena of the 21st century: the world worldwide fall in birthrates and attendant rapid aging of the human population. He masterfully describes the key facts and concepts any literate person should know about the sea change in global demography and speculates wisely and soberly about the implications for the future of humanity. Avoiding the alarmism, sexism, and racial chauvinism that mars so such other writing on this subject, Last is an insightful and trustworthy guide."

Phillip Longman, Senior Fellow of the New America Foundation and author of The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity And What To Do About It

"Jonathan Last's writing matches his reasoning: as clear as a shot of gin, and just as bracing. America is changing more quickly than ever before, and this book explains why. A terrific, important read."

Tucker Carlson, Editor of The Daily Caller

"Jonathan Last's pulled off an amazing feat. He's written a book that's at once lively and profound, that deals with weighty matters with a light touch, and that explains a complex subject clearly. It might make you laugh, it could make you cry--but above all it will make you think."

William Kristol, Editor, The Weekly Standard

"Imagine a merger of Mark Steyn and David Brooks with a Supreme Court imposed page limit."

Hugh Hewitt, Host, The Hugh Hewitt Show

The Malthusian paranoia of a coming population boom has nothing on the reality of a coming population implosion. Frankly it kinda makes a girl want to procreate.”

S.E. Cupp

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Encounter Books; First Edition (February 5, 2013)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1594036411
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1594036415
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.1 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 8 x 0.75 x 5.5 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #476,328 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #112 in Demography Studies
- #408 in Sociology of Marriage & Family (Books)
- #2,349 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books

Customer Reviews:
249

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Jonathan V. Last

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Jonathan V. Last is a senior writer at The Weekly Standard, a Washington-based political magazine. His writings have been featured in the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the New York Post, the Claremont Review of Books, First Things, The Week, Salon, Slate, TV Guide, and elsewhere.

He is a regular commentator on both television and radio and has appeared on ABC, CNN, Fox News Channel, PBS, NPR, CNBC, Sky News, and the BBC.

He blogs at JonathanLast.com and tweets, reluctantly, @JVLast.

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5

249 global ratings

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Shriekdheyev

A Thought-provoking & Enjoyable Read, with a subject pertaining to everyone on the planet!

Reviewed in the United States on February 18, 2013

Verified Purchase

I'm a first-time mother of a 5-month old girl and a leader of a successful & active moms group. I heard about this book while listening to NPR's "To the Point" episode on Feb. 6th (Last was on the show)... and immediately ordered the book on Amazon.

With the recent birth of my daughter, my world has turned upside-down in the best of ways, with parenthood & everything baby dominating my mind. Last's work has given me a lot to think about, and I'm grateful to have the information he provided in such a fun, enjoyable read.

Last's book challenged some ideas I always vaguely had about overpopulation of the planet, and also addressed some of my questions, such as why people are having less & less kids these days, and why many negatively judge parents who have LOTS of kids ("can't they just use condoms?" and "keep your grubby kids' hands away from my expensive outfit!"). Now I know that there are huge cultural forces at work here! (and that I was wholly influenced by the individualistic tones of our culture - as I, myself, have at times negatively judged (albeit only in my head) parents with 3+ kids - despite my ideal family size always having been at 2-3... now it's 3+.).

I found Last's insights about political tensions & warfare to be enlightening, even a bit liberating. It's so tiring to watch political disaster after political disaster unfold, with the same "explanations" offered without any solutions. With his insights on the current & future demographic states, it all is starting to make a bit more sense - even though it doesn't solve anything, at least I have a greater understanding of possible forces at play.

Last's book also is helping me explore more of my feelings on the consequences of how many kids I have, down the line, both for my future family lines & the world at large. For the first couple of months, the exhausted me was wondering if one child wasn't quite enough already! For we could dedicate our resources to this one child AND also get away with "enjoying" life much more than if we were to have two or more kids. Yet when I think about the repercussions of my daughter growing up as an only child, I find them to be undesirable... both for the obvious reasons (not only would she lose the sibling rivalry & playtimes, but also generations down the line would be limited in familial relationships) and for the less-obvious reasons (which I see now after reading this book: me having only one child might contribute to our diminishing cultural value of "ideal fertility").

I know that I am only one person, and that what I do individually cannot make a global trend reverse upon itself. Yet this book encourages me to consider maintaining my aspirations for 3+ kids (and to promote conversation on this topic when possible). It's not the 6+ children aspiration of yesteryear... and no quick fix for our community/culture. But, it's a worthy endeavor and I will happily consider taking it on. I'll even recommend this book to some of my friends who have sworn to never have kids! Not that I'm expecting for them to start reproducing... but Last's book inspires conversation, and this is a meaningful one to have!

9 people found this helpful

Helpful

Michael Collins

Witty, Entertaining, Mildly Depressing Tour de Force

Reviewed in the United States on February 9, 2013

Verified Purchase

A must-read. Whatever one's preexisting conceptions, Last presents a compelling array of statistics that cannot be dismissed. Although his analysis is not limited to America (and our demographic trends are much better than those of most industrialized countries), I founds his discussions of America's issues the most illuminating.

With the demographic trends that have been building over the past 50 years, America cannot survive without massive changes to the system. There simply aren't enough babies to support the current welfare state. The ratio of workers to retirees will become untenable within 20-30 years. Unfortunately, although immigration is a necessary part of any solution, it simply will be nowhere near enough to avert a crisis.

People can disagree with Last's view that the industrialized world is not having enough babies by focusing on pollution and other ills. That's an intellectually respectable concern. However, there is a high correlation with that position and the desire for a large welfare state. Those positions are ultimately incompatible - tweaking tax rates and benefit levels will only delay the inevitable without more babies to support the older generations, given that all of our programs are fundamentally pay-as-you-go.

Ultimately, this is a modest book. Last does not provide any silver bullets, just some modest suggestions that may be worth trying, such as enhanced tax incentives for having children and a reasonable policy that allows high levels of immigration but focuses on integration of new immigrants. As Last describes in detail, many countries have tried to incentivize people to have more babies, with mixed results at best.

The book has come in for some harsh criticism. Unfortunately, it's not clear that the the 1-star level reviewers here and elsewhere have actually read the book. For example, the claims that Last somehow denigrates women are, quite simply, laughable. One may disagree with some or all of Last's conclusions, but all who care about the future must engage his arguments.

One technical point is that, unlike virtually any other book, I recommend the hardcover version. The footnotes are highly illuminating, and they are much easier to read in hardcover than on kindle.

18 people found this helpful

Helpful

Top reviews from other countries

edgar

Excellent book

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 14, 2018

Verified Purchase

This book is extremely readable and full of information. The topic itself is fascinating and highly pertinent to society, but in lessor hands might be very dry, something entirely avoided.

Andie

Great book, not boring

Reviewed in Canada on October 21, 2013

Verified Purchase

I loved this book! I have read many books on demographics and while they have all been informative most of them were boring as well. They just gave you the numbers. This author was actually really funny and included many stories to illustrate the points he was making which made it an enjoyable read. I read it in a day and was disappointed when I was finished, I wished there was more!

tamburrini

Educational

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 20, 2014

Verified Purchase

Not quite what I was expecting ,but very enlightning, The statistics are mind boggling ..A lot of hard work and research has been put into this book . Thank you Jonathan

A. Volk

Important topic, biased approach

Reviewed in Canada on April 22, 2013

Verified Purchase

This book is about what to expect in the future as population birth rates drop below replacement levels. That is, more people die than are born. That's actually happening in most modernized countries right now, and the trend is spreading to most countries on the planet. At its face level, this is a disaster. Ultimately, if not reversed, it would mean the extinction of the human species! Hard to think of a modern trend more severe than that! This book is an attempt to explore where, when, and why this is happening, what its implications might be, and what can be done about it. The author starts off by stating that he's conservative, but will do his best to not let that interfere with his discussion of the topic at hand. He fails at that, in some cases, badly.

The positives of the book is that it does offer a lot of statistics, although many are from think-tanks whom I'm not familiar with and so I'm a little wary of their data. But I think his general points, about birth rates, are pretty solid. He paints a grim picture of what a future with fewer babies will be like. In particular, it will mean that elderly entitlements like Social Security or Medicare will increasingly either have to be cut or have bigger shares passed on to younger generations. I'm not sure of the situation in Canada, but the author is clear that US social security works by paying today for today's elderly. Tomorrow's elderly need to be paid by tomorrow's youth, and if there's far more elderly relative to youths, then that's going to be a big problem. He also points out how its the youth who spend more money, invest in riskier capital, and are more likely to be inventors or entrepreneurs. Extinction aside, these are all very important economic reasons for being concerned about demographics and birth rates. This stuff is very interesting, and on its own, could have been worth four or five stars.

The downside is that the author keeps dragging the argument through the muck of his own beliefs. He starts off trying not to, but it's obvious from the start that he has his bias. For example, one good thing about fewer people is that we will pose less of a burden on the planet. But he completely dismisses this, saying that technology has always solved our population problems. Well, look around buddy and see how the oceans are doing, how the forests are doing, how world pollution is doing. Even the strongest global warming denier can't claim that our world is getting healthier with time (in some limited areas, sure, but not overall). What's strange is his belief in science solving all problems doesn't extend to the problem at hand. Instead, he pushes for religion as one of a few key solutions to this problem. It's true that religious people (practicing religious) have more children, but his statement that there's no good reason for having a second child other than God wanting you to have more than one is just ridiculous. I have more than one (three) because I love kids, and I wanted my children to have siblings to grow up with and lean on when they are older. God's wishes didn't enter that equation. If they did for you, fine, but that's clearly not the only reason people have more than one child. He also says he won't discuss his attitudes about abortion (a clear, if not massive, cause of lower birth rates) and then bashes it almost every time it comes up. Putting your moral condemnation in a large footnote at the bottom of the page isn't staying neutral. His condemnation of liberals is more subtle, but it's also present. He also suggests that fewer people go to university so that they can instead starting earning money and having kids. Especially women. Now I agree that there are plenty of people in university who don't belong there, but education is a good thing. I've never heard someone curse themselves for being too smart. Why not instead make it easier for women to pursue university and an early career while still becoming mothers as a solution to creeping 1st baby maternal age rates? I'd rather give prospective parents support rather than restrict their educational choices.

All of this is too bad as I agree that falling birth rates are a very important issue worth serious public consideration. From an economic perspective, I'm not sure if we won't balance things out eventually, but it's certain to involve some pain or sacrifice and if the issue continues or gets worse, that pain and sacrifice are really going to hurt. I do wish that the author spent more time discussing psychological reasons why a species would not choose to reproduce at its maximum rate, that's something that humans seem to be unique at. Australian rabbits, cane toads, etc. didn't have that problem. But we do- why? Unfortunately, beyond issues like having to buy safety seats and mini-vans, the author offers precious few reasons. Certainly, modern life is less conducive to family life in many ways, but why is that? Why do people tolerate that? How can we rebel against our genetic mission to procreate so successfully? To me, that's the million dollar question and it goes unanswered in this book. So fascinating topic, OK discussion equals three stars. If you don't mind lots of subtle right-wing jibs then this is probably four stars.

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