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What to Expect When No One's Expecting: America's Coming Demographic Disaster Paperback – Illustrated, June 10, 2014

by Jonathan V. Last (Author)

254 ratings

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Look around you and think for a minute: Is America too crowded?

For years, we have been warned about the looming danger of overpopulation: people jostling for space on a planet that’s busting at the seams and running out of oil and food and land and everything else.

It’s all bunk. The “population bomb” never exploded. Instead, statistics from around the world make clear that since the 1970s, we’ve been facing exactly the opposite problem: people are having too few babies. Population growth has been slowing for two generations. The world’s population will peak, and then begin shrinking, within the next fifty years. In some countries, it’s already started. Japan, for instance, will be half its current size by the end of the century. In Italy, there are already more deaths than births every year. China’s One-Child Policy has left that country without enough women to marry its men, not enough young people to support the country’s elderly, and an impending population contraction that has the ruling class terrified.

And all of this is coming to America, too. In fact, it’s already here. Middle-class Americans have their own, informal one-child policy these days. And an alarming number of upscale professionals don’t even go that far—they have dogs, not kids. In fact, if it weren’t for the wave of immigration we experienced over the last thirty years, the United States would be on the verge of shrinking, too.

What happened? Everything about modern life—from Bugaboo strollers to insane college tuition to government regulations—has pushed Americans in a single direction, making it harder to have children. And making the people who do still want to have children feel like second-class citizens.

What to Expect When No One’s Expecting explains why the population implosion happened and how it is remaking culture, the economy, and politics both at home and around the world.

Because if America wants to continue to lead the world, we need to have more babies.

Editorial Reviews

About the Author

Jonathan V. Last is a senior writer at the Weekly Standard. His writings have been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Post, Claremont Review of Books, First Things, The Week, Salon, Slate, TV Guide, and elsewhere. He writes a weekly column on politics, "One Last Thing," for the iPad newspaper The Daily.

He is a regular commentator on both television and radio and has appeared on ABC, CNN, Fox News Channel, PBS, NPR, CNBC, Sky News, and the BBC.

He blogs at JonathanLast.com.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Encounter Books
Publication date ‏ : ‎ June 10, 2014
Edition ‏ : ‎ Illustrated
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Print length ‏ : ‎ 240 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1594037310
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1594037313
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 13.5 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.9 x 0.8 x 8.9 inches
Best Sellers Rank: #390,918 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #26 in Demography Studies
- #138 in Sociology of Marriage & Family (Books)
- #833 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books
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254 ratings

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Jonathan V. Last

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Jonathan V. Last is a senior writer at The Weekly Standard, a Washington-based political magazine. His writings have been featured in the Wall Street Journal, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the New York Post, the Claremont Review of Books, First Things, The Week, Salon, Slate, TV Guide, and elsewhere.

He is a regular commentator on both television and radio and has appeared on ABC, CNN, Fox News Channel, PBS, NPR, CNBC, Sky News, and the BBC.

He blogs at JonathanLast.com and tweets, reluctantly, @JVLast.

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Customer reviews

254 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers appreciate the book's detailed research and compelling array of statistics, finding it highly readable and easily accessible to average readers. They find it extremely thought-provoking and eye-opening, with one customer noting its non-ideological approach. The book receives positive feedback for its well-written content, humor, and good information on declining birth rates, while also providing helpful demographic insights. The pacing receives mixed reviews, with one customer noting the lack of smooth transitions between anecdotes and statistics.

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Information quality Readability Thought provoking Writing style Humor Birth rate Demographics Pacing

53 customers mention "Information quality"46 positive7 negative

Customers praise the book's detailed research and compelling array of statistics, with one customer noting how each chapter introduces new data and approaches.

"My entire family has read this book and enjoyed it. Very informative and timely. Makes you want to have more children to save America." Read more

"I gave this book three stars because its generally interesting and informative and there are a citations for most of the facts and studies presented...." Read more

"...Whatever one's preexisting conceptions, Last presents a compelling array of statistics that cannot be dismissed...." Read more

"...2. I liked his detailed examination of how various countries' efforts to boost fertility have failed...." Read more

43 customers mention "Readability"42 positive1 negative

Customers find the book highly readable and entertaining, with one customer noting that the interpretation of statistics is easy to understand.

"I gave this book three stars because its generally interesting and informative and there are a citations for most of the facts and studies presented...." Read more

"...5. The book is a quick and easy read. I finished it in one night. THINGS I DIDN'T LIKE..." Read more

"...It was a good read, thought provoking but ultimately I believe that the forces of coercion that used to encourage procreation no longer have the..." Read more

"The book is well written and easy to read. He is writing about something important but was distracted by issues that are secondary...." Read more

19 customers mention "Thought provoking"17 positive2 negative

Customers find the book thought-provoking and eye-opening, with one customer noting its non-ideological approach.

"...It was a good read, thought provoking but ultimately I believe that the forces of coercion that used to encourage procreation no longer have the..." Read more

"...I found Last's insights about political tensions & warfare to be enlightening, even a bit liberating...." Read more

"...But don't let the data turn you off, there's a lot to think through as you read, and even some hum to lighten this information-packed book...." Read more

"...This book is a MUST READ for thoughtful people." Read more

16 customers mention "Writing style"14 positive2 negative

Customers praise the writing style of the book, describing it as well and elegantly written, with one customer noting its conversational tone and another highlighting its clear trend analysis.

"Mr. Last's book is well written and describes our demographic future in a sober yet still light-hearted fashion without boring us to death with too..." Read more

"...There are no wild predictions yet the trend lines are well drawn and all references are there for anyone interested in his source information...." Read more

"...This book is written in a very conversational style that is very easy to grasp. His numbers are clear and all of them are cited...." Read more

"...The book is well written, and for the most part scientifically and factually accurate...." Read more

15 customers mention "Humor"14 positive1 negative

Customers find the book humorous, with one review noting how it makes demography fun.

"...about, and I'm grateful to have the information he provided in such a fun, enjoyable read...." Read more

"...But the writing is great and humorous to boot...." Read more

"...I also like the humor in the book where I often find myself laughing at the way he puts things. I think this should be required reading for all." Read more

"...A poignant work written with some wry humor. Good for any thinking, concerned citizen o read. JL Penfold" Read more

7 customers mention "Birth rate"6 positive1 negative

Customers appreciate the book's coverage of declining birth rates, with one customer highlighting the detailed demographic analysis and another noting the methodology used to determine population decline.

"...this author delivers hard numbers about birth rates and populations...." Read more

"Really excellent analysis on the social and economic consequences of plunging birth rates -- not just in the US but in other countries as well...." Read more

"...up the drumbeat of population decline, explains his methodology for determining population decline and goes on to cite the many drawbacks of aging..." Read more

"...really do matter and this book points out that the US is not immune to plunging birth rates...." Read more

7 customers mention "Demographics"7 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the demographic content of the book, with one mentioning that it explains the principles in simple language.

"...the narrative so that, by the end, you should have a keen insight into global demographics, know what is at risk, what can be done, and what can't..." Read more

"Demographics really do matter and this book points out that the US is not immune to plunging birth rates...." Read more

"...It explains in simple language the principles of demographics, and how women who do not have enough babies determine the future populations of their..." Read more

"Good conceptual understanding of the factors affecting demographics and the consequences of these affects...." Read more

8 customers mention "Pacing"5 positive3 negative

Customers have mixed opinions about the pacing of the book, with some finding it well-paced and not long-winded, while others describe it as somewhat frenetic and lacking smooth transitions between anecdotes and statistics.

"...5. The book is a quick and easy read. I finished it in one night. THINGS I DIDN'T LIKE..." Read more

"A scary book about what the future of America might look like if we continue on our current course...." Read more

"...This book dovetailed nicely into the better (my opinion) but slightly different subject matter book "Unnatural Selection" and shows the..." Read more

"...For someone whose not a fan of maths, this is still able to be followed...." Read more

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Shriekdheyev
A Thought-provoking & Enjoyable Read, with a subject pertaining to everyone on the planet!
Reviewed in the United States on February 18, 2013
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

I'm a first-time mother of a 5-month old girl and a leader of a successful & active moms group. I heard about this book while listening to NPR's "To the Point" episode on Feb. 6th (Last was on the show)... and immediately ordered the book on Amazon.

With the recent birth of my daughter, my world has turned upside-down in the best of ways, with parenthood & everything baby dominating my mind. Last's work has given me a lot to think about, and I'm grateful to have the information he provided in such a fun, enjoyable read.

Last's book challenged some ideas I always vaguely had about overpopulation of the planet, and also addressed some of my questions, such as why people are having less & less kids these days, and why many negatively judge parents who have LOTS of kids ("can't they just use condoms?" and "keep your grubby kids' hands away from my expensive outfit!"). Now I know that there are huge cultural forces at work here! (and that I was wholly influenced by the individualistic tones of our culture - as I, myself, have at times negatively judged (albeit only in my head) parents with 3+ kids - despite my ideal family size always having been at 2-3... now it's 3+.).

I found Last's insights about political tensions & warfare to be enlightening, even a bit liberating. It's so tiring to watch political disaster after political disaster unfold, with the same "explanations" offered without any solutions. With his insights on the current & future demographic states, it all is starting to make a bit more sense - even though it doesn't solve anything, at least I have a greater understanding of possible forces at play.

Last's book also is helping me explore more of my feelings on the consequences of how many kids I have, down the line, both for my future family lines & the world at large. For the first couple of months, the exhausted me was wondering if one child wasn't quite enough already! For we could dedicate our resources to this one child AND also get away with "enjoying" life much more than if we were to have two or more kids. Yet when I think about the repercussions of my daughter growing up as an only child, I find them to be undesirable... both for the obvious reasons (not only would she lose the sibling rivalry & playtimes, but also generations down the line would be limited in familial relationships) and for the less-obvious reasons (which I see now after reading this book: me having only one child might contribute to our diminishing cultural value of "ideal fertility").

I know that I am only one person, and that what I do individually cannot make a global trend reverse upon itself. Yet this book encourages me to consider maintaining my aspirations for 3+ kids (and to promote conversation on this topic when possible). It's not the 6+ children aspiration of yesteryear... and no quick fix for our community/culture. But, it's a worthy endeavor and I will happily consider taking it on. I'll even recommend this book to some of my friends who have sworn to never have kids! Not that I'm expecting for them to start reproducing... but Last's book inspires conversation, and this is a meaningful one to have!

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Michael Collins
Witty, Entertaining, Mildly Depressing Tour de Force
Reviewed in the United States on February 9, 2013
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
A must-read. Whatever one's preexisting conceptions, Last presents a compelling array of statistics that cannot be dismissed. Although his analysis is not limited to America (and our demographic trends are much better than those of most industrialized countries), I founds his discussions of America's issues the most illuminating.

With the demographic trends that have been building over the past 50 years, America cannot survive without massive changes to the system. There simply aren't enough babies to support the current welfare state. The ratio of workers to retirees will become untenable within 20-30 years. Unfortunately, although immigration is a necessary part of any solution, it simply will be nowhere near enough to avert a crisis.

People can disagree with Last's view that the industrialized world is not having enough babies by focusing on pollution and other ills. That's an intellectually respectable concern. However, there is a high correlation with that position and the desire for a large welfare state. Those positions are ultimately incompatible - tweaking tax rates and benefit levels will only delay the inevitable without more babies to support the older generations, given that all of our programs are fundamentally pay-as-you-go.

Ultimately, this is a modest book. Last does not provide any silver bullets, just some modest suggestions that may be worth trying, such as enhanced tax incentives for having children and a reasonable policy that allows high levels of immigration but focuses on integration of new immigrants. As Last describes in detail, many countries have tried to incentivize people to have more babies, with mixed results at best.

The book has come in for some harsh criticism. Unfortunately, it's not clear that the the 1-star level reviewers here and elsewhere have actually read the book. For example, the claims that Last somehow denigrates women are, quite simply, laughable. One may disagree with some or all of Last's conclusions, but all who care about the future must engage his arguments.

One technical point is that, unlike virtually any other book, I recommend the hardcover version. The footnotes are highly illuminating, and they are much easier to read in hardcover than on kindle.

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Top reviews from other countries

Sarah Allen
Excellent book
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 14, 2018
Format: KindleVerified Purchase

This book is extremely readable and full of information. The topic itself is fascinating and highly pertinent to society, but in lessor hands might be very dry, something entirely avoided.

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Andie
Great book, not boring
Reviewed in Canada on October 21, 2013
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
I loved this book! I have read many books on demographics and while they have all been informative most of them were boring as well. They just gave you the numbers. This author was actually really funny and included many stories to illustrate the points he was making which made it an enjoyable read. I read it in a day and was disappointed when I was finished, I wished there was more!

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tamburrini
Educational
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on February 20, 2014
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
Not quite what I was expecting ,but very enlightning, The statistics are mind boggling ..A lot of hard work and research has been put into this book . Thank you Jonathan

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A. Volk
Important topic, biased approach
Reviewed in Canada on April 22, 2013
Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase
This book is about what to expect in the future as population birth rates drop below replacement levels. That is, more people die than are born. That's actually happening in most modernized countries right now, and the trend is spreading to most countries on the planet. At its face level, this is a disaster. Ultimately, if not reversed, it would mean the extinction of the human species! Hard to think of a modern trend more severe than that! This book is an attempt to explore where, when, and why this is happening, what its implications might be, and what can be done about it. The author starts off by stating that he's conservative, but will do his best to not let that interfere with his discussion of the topic at hand. He fails at that, in some cases, badly.

The positives of the book is that it does offer a lot of statistics, although many are from think-tanks whom I'm not familiar with and so I'm a little wary of their data. But I think his general points, about birth rates, are pretty solid. He paints a grim picture of what a future with fewer babies will be like. In particular, it will mean that elderly entitlements like Social Security or Medicare will increasingly either have to be cut or have bigger shares passed on to younger generations. I'm not sure of the situation in Canada, but the author is clear that US social security works by paying today for today's elderly. Tomorrow's elderly need to be paid by tomorrow's youth, and if there's far more elderly relative to youths, then that's going to be a big problem. He also points out how its the youth who spend more money, invest in riskier capital, and are more likely to be inventors or entrepreneurs. Extinction aside, these are all very important economic reasons for being concerned about demographics and birth rates. This stuff is very interesting, and on its own, could have been worth four or five stars.

The downside is that the author keeps dragging the argument through the muck of his own beliefs. He starts off trying not to, but it's obvious from the start that he has his bias. For example, one good thing about fewer people is that we will pose less of a burden on the planet. But he completely dismisses this, saying that technology has always solved our population problems. Well, look around buddy and see how the oceans are doing, how the forests are doing, how world pollution is doing. Even the strongest global warming denier can't claim that our world is getting healthier with time (in some limited areas, sure, but not overall). What's strange is his belief in science solving all problems doesn't extend to the problem at hand. Instead, he pushes for religion as one of a few key solutions to this problem. It's true that religious people (practicing religious) have more children, but his statement that there's no good reason for having a second child other than God wanting you to have more than one is just ridiculous. I have more than one (three) because I love kids, and I wanted my children to have siblings to grow up with and lean on when they are older. God's wishes didn't enter that equation. If they did for you, fine, but that's clearly not the only reason people have more than one child. He also says he won't discuss his attitudes about abortion (a clear, if not massive, cause of lower birth rates) and then bashes it almost every time it comes up. Putting your moral condemnation in a large footnote at the bottom of the page isn't staying neutral. His condemnation of liberals is more subtle, but it's also present. He also suggests that fewer people go to university so that they can instead starting earning money and having kids. Especially women. Now I agree that there are plenty of people in university who don't belong there, but education is a good thing. I've never heard someone curse themselves for being too smart. Why not instead make it easier for women to pursue university and an early career while still becoming mothers as a solution to creeping 1st baby maternal age rates? I'd rather give prospective parents support rather than restrict their educational choices.

All of this is too bad as I agree that falling birth rates are a very important issue worth serious public consideration. From an economic perspective, I'm not sure if we won't balance things out eventually, but it's certain to involve some pain or sacrifice and if the issue continues or gets worse, that pain and sacrifice are really going to hurt. I do wish that the author spent more time discussing psychological reasons why a species would not choose to reproduce at its maximum rate, that's something that humans seem to be unique at. Australian rabbits, cane toads, etc. didn't have that problem. But we do- why? Unfortunately, beyond issues like having to buy safety seats and mini-vans, the author offers precious few reasons. Certainly, modern life is less conducive to family life in many ways, but why is that? Why do people tolerate that? How can we rebel against our genetic mission to procreate so successfully? To me, that's the million dollar question and it goes unanswered in this book. So fascinating topic, OK discussion equals three stars. If you don't mind lots of subtle right-wing jibs then this is probably four stars.

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5.0 out of 5 stars A Thought-provoking & Enjoyable Read, with a subject pertaining to everyone on the planet!

5.0 out of 5 stars Witty, Entertaining, Mildly Depressing Tour de Force

Top reviews from other countries

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent book

5.0 out of 5 stars Great book, not boring

4.0 out of 5 stars Educational

3.0 out of 5 stars Important topic, biased approach

A Thought-provoking & Enjoyable Read, with a subject pertaining to everyone on the planet!

Witty, Entertaining, Mildly Depressing Tour de Force

Excellent book

Great book, not boring

Educational

Important topic, biased approach