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What We Owe the FutureHachette

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What We Owe the Future Hardcover – August 16, 2022

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An Instant New York Times Bestseller

“This book will change your sense of how grand the sweep of human history could be, where you fit into it, and how much you could do to change it for the better. It's as simple, and as ambitious, as that.”
—Ezra Klein

An Oxford philosopher makes the case for “longtermism” — that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.

The fate of the world is in our hands. Humanity’s written history spans only five thousand years. Our yet-unwritten future could last for millions more — or it could end tomorrow. Astonishing numbers of people could lead lives of great happiness or unimaginable suffering, or never live at all, depending on what we choose to do today.

In What We Owe The Future, philosopher William MacAskill argues for longtermism, that idea that positively influencing the distant future is a key moral priority of our time. From this perspective, it’s not enough to reverse climate change or avert the next pandemic. We must ensure that civilization would rebound if it collapsed; counter the end of moral progress; and prepare for a planet where the smartest beings are digital, not human.

If we make wise choices today, our grandchildren’s grandchildren will thrive, knowing we did everything we could to give them a world full of justice, hope and beauty.

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352 pages
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Basic Books
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August 16, 2022
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6.45 x 1.45 x 9.65 inches
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1541618629
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978-1541618626
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From the Publisher

Editorial Reviews

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“This book will change your sense of how grand the sweep of human history could be, where you fit into it, and how much you could do to change it for the better. It's as simple, and as ambitious, as that.”―Ezra Klein, host of The Ezra Klein Show podcast

“An optimistic look at the future that moved me to tears.”
―Joseph Gordon-Levitt, actor

“What We Owe The Future makes the case for thinking seriously about the very long term. It gives a profoundly new perspective on human civilization and our place in it.”
―Lydia Cacho, journalist and author of The Demons of Eden

“What We Owe the Future is an intellectually thrilling exploration of moral philosophy and human history in the hands of a very skilled thinker and clear writer… Thought provoking.”―Charter

“Unapologetically optimistic and bracingly realistic, this is the most inspiring book on ‘ethical living’ I’ve ever read.”―The Guardian (UK)

“In focusing on the interests of future generations stretching into an indefinitely long future, MacAskill has thrust an important and neglected argument into the spotlight, while making it vivid and fun to read. He hopes this book will change the world, and it might.”―Financial Times (UK)

“Touchingly optimistic… With something to ponder on every page, a bracing exhortation to do right by the people of centuries to come.”

―Kirkus

“MacAskill delivers a sweeping analysis of contemporary dangers that masterfully probes the intersections of technology, science, and politics, while offering fascinating glimpses into humanity’s possible futures. This urgent call to action will inspire and unnerve in equal measure.”―Publishers Weekly

“What We Owe the Future is an instructive, intelligent book. It has a lot to teach us about history and the future, about neglected risks and moral myopia.”―Boston Review

“No living philosopher has had a greater impact upon my ethics than Will MacAskill. In What We Owe The Future, MacAskillhas transformed my thinking once again, by patiently dismantling the lazy intuitions that rendered me morally blind to the interests of future generations. This is an altogether thrilling and necessary book.”
―Sam Harris, five-time New York Times bestselling author and host of the Making Sense podcast

"An exciting new book."―Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution

“An extraordinary book. I've never read something so deep and fundamental, and so accessible at the same time . . . The publication of this book is a monumental event. William MacAskill is one of the most important philosophers alive today, and this is his magnum opus.”―Rutger Bregman, Dutch historian and author of Utopia for Realists

“This is a book of great daring, clarity, insight and imagination. To be simultaneously so realistic and so optimistic, and always so damned readable … that is a miracle for which MacAskill should be greatly applauded.”
―Stephen Fry, actor

"There are moments when we can change outcomes easily, but if we don't bend those curves right then, we can lock in enormous long-term damage. This fascinating book makes us think relentlessly and usefully about such pivot points; few prods could be more important.”
―Bill McKibben, environmentalist and author of The End of Nature

"Many books promise a new ‘big idea’, but few deliver one as brilliant as MacAskill’s in What We Owe The Future. A fascinating, profound read."
―Julia Galef, author of The Scout Mindset

“Warning: This book may radically upgrade your ethics and expand your compassion. What We Owe The Future is an inspiring roadmap to how we can try to improve the lives of the billions and trillions sentient beings yet to come. It’s perhaps our greatest moral duty. So please do yourself – and your grandchildren's grandchildren's grandchildren – a favor and read this book.”
―AJ Jacobs, editor at large of Esquire Magazine

“This mind-bending, eon-hurtling, visionary, masterful book raises questions that are among the most crucial we face as a species. MacAskill makes a moral case for the future that is urgent, clear, and utterly convincing.”
―Larissa MacFarquhar, staff writer for The New Yorker and author of Strangers Drowning

“To assess what really matters it always helps to zoom out, and Will MacAskill is probably the world’s best zoom-outer. What We Owe The Future brilliantly shows us the biggest picture of all and persuasively reminds us of the vast impact we can all have.”

―Tim Urban, co-founder of Wait but Why

“I expected William MacAskill to write a forceful and persuasive argument for caring more about future people and this book did not disappoint. But it’s so much more—What We Owe The Future is an engaged and deeply original exploration of questions ranging from the contingency of moral progress, to the perils of AI, to the very nature of a happy and fulfilled life. It’s an important, stimulating, and delightful book.”

―Paul Bloom

About the Author

William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy and senior research fellow at the Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He has focused his research on moral uncertainty, effective altruism, and future generations. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and Y Combinator–backed 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He is the author of Doing Good Better and lives in Oxford, England.

Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Basic Books (August 16, 2022)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 352 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1541618629
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1541618626
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.23 pounds
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.45 x 1.45 x 9.65 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #244,906 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #103 in Philosophy of Good & Evil
- #814 in Philosophy of Ethics & Morality
- #880 in History & Theory of Politics

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William MacAskill

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I'm Will MacAskill, Associate Professor in Philosophy and Research Fellow at the Global Priorities Institute, University of Oxford. My academic research focuses on the fundamentals of effective altruism - the use of evidence and reason to help others by as much as possible with our time and money, with a particular concentration on how to act given moral uncertainty.

I am the author of Doing Good Better - Effective Altruism and a Radical New Way to Make a Difference, and Moral Uncertainty. My latest book is What We Owe The Future.

I am the Director of the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research, a co-founder and the President of the Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) and I helped to create the effective altruism movement. Through Giving What We Can, CEA encourages people to commit to donate at least 10% of their income to the most effective charities. CEA also runs over 100 effective altruism local groups, hosts regular effective altruism conferences, and does research into high-impact policy and philanthropic opportunities.

I also co-founded 80,000 Hours, a YCombinator-backed non-profit that provides research and advice on how you can best make a difference through your career.

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David J. Aldous

Rational analysis of thinking and acting for the long term

Reviewed in the United States on August 18, 2022

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"This book is about longtermism: the idea that positively influencing the longterm future is a key moral priority of our time". The author starts with three intriguing metaphors: Humanity as an imprudent teenager whose decisions will have lifetime consequences; History as molten glass -- society might set in a fixed unchangeable state; Trying to make the future better as a risky expedition into uncharted terrain. I give the book 5 stars because it is a well written and thought-provoking account of a neglected important topic. Much of the book is eminently sensible, so my comments are just a few counterpoints to a few of the topics discussed, though I have one substantial criticism at the end.

Start with the axiom "future people count". This seems unobjectionable, but one then confronts questions like "is the world better for having more people leading good lives?" What are the trade-offs between present,near future, and far future costs and benefits? Is a larger population preferable to a smaller population? Chapter 8 discusses such "population ethics" questions via thought experiments. This is fascinating as an intellectual exercise, but it is perhaps not surprising that there are no very satisfactory answers.

Another theme starts with "values are contingent" -- for instance, that in an alternate history, large-scale legal slavery might have continued through the 20th Century. The author speculates that the current era of rapid technological and economic growth exhibits unusual "plasticity", in the sense that actions or their neglect today might lead to a "values lock-in" over the next century or two, so we should attempt to steer in the desired direction today. In particular this is applied to the development of AGIs, though the specific possible consequences described seem unconvincing to me.

Chapter 7 worries about possible future "technological stagnation"", and indeed the author writes later "the risk of technological stagnation alone suffices to make the net longterm effect of having children positive". This seems curious at first sight, but his point is that the world economy might end in an unsustainable state as regards climate change and resource depletion.

The final "What to do" Chapter 10 contains an interesting analysis, along the lines of the "effective altruism" movement that the author has been involved with. Changing personal consumption has little effect, except perhaps for becoming vegetarian. Donating to charities carefully chosen to maximize good, political activism and "spreading good ideas" are recommended. Less familiar is the discussion of career choices -- what will be the overall effect of your 80,000 lifetime hours of work?

On the technical side (my own background is mathematical probability), the use of mathematical expectation (expected significance, expected contingency, expected persistence) in the context of rare events with major consequences is problematical. Especially in the context of trillions of potential future humans, where arguments come perilously close to inane arguments like the Simulation Hypothesis. Similarly, the quoted subjective estimates of probabilities of various catastrophes are very unreliable.

Finally, my only major criticism is that the author does not address the following rather obvious "elephant in the room" thought experiment. Imagine an engineered pandemic, designed to and succeeding in killing 95% of humans unselectively without destroying infrastructure. This would be psychologically be harmful to the survivors, but by the logic of longtermism would surely be A Good Thing, in that the subsequent few generations would be free of most of our current worries about climate change, nuclear war, etc, and have time to work toward the ideal future envisaged in this book. But would anyone really say in public that it would be a good act?

54 people found this helpful

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Brian Ettling

This book points out that momentary decisions can impact our lives & humanity.

Reviewed in the United States on December 22, 2022

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An inspiring book to read how we can make a difference, not just for us, but for future generations to come. Good insights in this book how momentary decisions we make in an instant of time can have lasting influence not just on our own lives, but the future of humanity.

2 people found this helpful

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Michael Ellsberg

People might look back in millions of years and say this was the most important book ever written.

Reviewed in the United States on August 17, 2022

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In this book, William MacAskill raises a basic moral question: we don't consider "this person is not in front of me" as a reason to disregard people morally. Nor do we consider "this action will cause harm to people later rather than immediately" as a good reason to disregard people morally. So why do we basically act as if people far in the future are irrelevant to our moral calculations?

MacAskill takes seriously the possibility that there *won't* be any humans in the future--this is called "existential risk," and there is plenty to worry about (engineered pathogens, nuclear war, AI takeover, climate catastrophe) etc. However, he argues that--if we can survive these existential risks--there's good reason to believe that there will be more humans ahead of us than you can imagine. He points out that if humans last as long as the typical mammal species, 1 million years, then our future as a species (700,000 years) is more than twice our history (300,000). This would lead to 80 trillion future humans, at current population rates. (In contrast, since most of our history as a species was at the low population density of hunter-gathers, only about 100 billion humans have lived so far--the vast majority in the last century.) That means, if we're a typical mammal species, 99.5% of human life-years are ahead of us a species, not behind us. MacAskill asks a simple question: shouldn't we care about these people and the quality of their lives morally?

It's obvious (to doom-and-gloom people like myself, at least) that humanity could last dramatically shorter than other mammals (I would point out that kangaroos and rabbits don't create nuclear weapons, bioweapons, or AI). But MacAskill points out it's also possible our civilization could last dramatically longer (nor do kangaroos or rabbits have the possibility of colonizing space and spawning multiple civilizations). If we do take to space and last millions of years, the number of human lives ahead of us grows to levels beyond comprehension.

MacAskill's book keeps posing a simple question: shouldn't we care for their well-being? He then provides clear guidance for *how* you can best care for their well-being, after he convinces you that you *should* care.

MacAskill's book is filled with things that you've never thought about, but that seem obvious once he points them out. Have you thought that there might be trillions of humans in the future? I hadn't--and yet he makes this point seem obvious in just a few pages in the Intro.

And here's another thing that seems obvious once he says it. With regards to future humans, MacAskill argues:

"humanity today is like an imprudent teenager: most of our life is ahead of us, and decisions that impact the rest of that life are of colossal importance. But, really, this analogy understates my case. A teenager knows approximately how long she can expect to live. But we do not know humanity’s life expectancy. We are more like a teenager who, for all she knows, might accidentally cause her own death in the next few months but also might live for a thousand years. If you were in such a situation, would you think seriously about the long life that might be ahead of you, or would you ignore it?"

Basically, MacAskill is asking us to stop acting collectively like teenagers with regard to the potential lifespan ahead of our species. He's asking us to wake up to our future, and grow up.

He argues that we are at a particular malleable point in history where small shifts could get "locked in" and shape the future of trillions of people in the future. He also argues convincingly that large-scale changes are more "contingent" than you would imagine--meaning that a relatively small group of people can create massive positive ripple effects that wouldn't have happened otherwise. If this book inspires enough people to rise to the challenge it poses, it's possible that in millions of years, humans will look back and view it as the most important book ever written. There's not too many contemporary books you could say that about plausibly. This is one of them.

The overwhelming feeling you come away with from reading this book is that your actions today are vastly more important and consequential than you imagined. And that your actions today can have an outsized impact. It's ultimately an empowering book. Who couldn't use a little empowerment right now?

I am a pessimist by nature--I'm currently writing my fourth book, entitled "Joyful Pessimism"--so I can't say this book switched me over into wild-eyed optimism for the future. But it made me, a hard-core pessimist, consider that the future might actually be better than I imagined. (It has made me go back and take into account his views in my own book.) Believe me, for this hard-core life-long pessimist, that is very high praise for this book.

103 people found this helpful

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Nathaniel McCann

Excellent journey to a disappointing destination

Reviewed in the United States on September 18, 2022

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The author shares his nuanced and carefully thought-out analysis of what would make the future better. He is very pragmatic, realistic, and insightful. He makes many great points and by the end of the book you're likely to be eagerly awaiting the section on "what you can do."

What makes this book exceptional is that the author is so clear-eyed and grounded about the calculations that we need to make to ensure a better future. We've all encountered a lot of ideas on how the world might be made better, but rarely are they examined so carefully. These conclusions about what it means for worlds or actions to be good are backed up by evidence and reason, and as such are more valuable than what you've likely heard elsewhere.

But then you get to his suggestions for you how personally can best make the future better. I bought the book in the first place because I was hoping to hear some ideas on what we can do to improve the future. This section is the weakest part of the book, and honestly the only part of the book that isn't great. A lot of the suggestions are much too vague to be useful, while examples given require literally world-class talent, access to exclusive universities, or international fame.

Still, if you ignore the final chapter it is an excellent book. Don't expect much actionable information, but do expect a lot of interesting information and convincing, well-reasoned explanations of what "Good" means.

12 people found this helpful

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Ken

Misleading garbage.

Reviewed in Canada on July 1, 2023

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THIS BOOK IS ACTUALLY 1 STAR JUST GIVING IT 5 FOR VISIBILITY. I really had high hopes for this book. The cover sells you on a book that tells of the current problems facing our world, making you believe you'll be presented with facts, and would look to offer enlightening solutions to said pressing problems. Instead, we got a book that's basically the author's opinions being forced on people, that are wrong to boot. For example, the author argues that bringing people into this world and giving birth is fundamentally a good thing. How? When humans are responsible for the massive destruction of our world? Ruining of ecosystems, the killing of billions of animals per year? Like, I don't understand how you can hold this view even though he knows these atrocities as he describes them in the book. Plus, the reasoning he gives isn't strong enough to justify his view. Oh, we need to sustain current populations instead the world will collapse? Like, so?? As well, he talks about technological stagnation leading to the ending of civilization, and that AI is the solution. This doesn't fully make sense because firstly, as long as we reach net-zero/negative in the coming years then civilization can continue to sustain itself even if we don't advance technologically. Secondly, why is AI seen as the silver bullet and not other forms of technological advancement? The book is just a mess and a lot of it is common sense, although I'm happy with the ending which encourages you to be the change you see in the world, and that it is possible to do things to be that change to influence people. It was inspiring and motivating, but that doesn't cancel the countless flaws of this book. Although to be fair they were some good points and terminologies in here like persistence, contingency, significance, and some others, but it just feels like he put down his thoughts and opinions in a book and gave it to people for $40. Then lied by creating an alluding cover. Anyways, I'm giving this book 5 stars only so that people can read the review. Go down to the 1-star reviews where people actually explain in depth why this book is garbage.

One person found this helpful

Pietro

Sensacional

Reviewed in Brazil on January 23, 2023

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Um livro importantíssimo que detalha não só o que vai ser necessário que façamos nos próximos anos e decadas (e séculos), como também por quê deveríamos pra começo de conversa. Ele detalha os principais problemas no horizonte da humanidade, suas causas, suas consequências, e eventualmente suas possíveis soluções de uma maneira que não é excessivamente fixa no que atualmente sabemos - o autor sabe que muitas das certezas que temos atualmente podem vir a mudar num futuro próximo ou distante, e oferece uma visão mais ampla de acordo. Apesar do tom que se espera de um assunto assim, a mensagem principal do livro é otimista; ele toca bastante no assunto do altruismo efetivo, que deixa bem claro que há muito que podemos fazer para alterar essas trajetórias extremamente preocupantes, desde pequenas ações a escolhas de carreira.

One person found this helpful

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Walter Staiano

Every Human Being should read this book at least once

Reviewed in Italy on January 23, 2023

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One of the most inspiring, meaningful and enlightening book I have ever read.

stonehenge_

It's difficult to make predictions, especially when they are about the future…

Reviewed in Germany on January 9, 2023

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Longtermism is an important idea, and MacAskill has to be lauded for promoting a perspective that could become crucial for the long-term survival of our civilization. This is a well written book with lots of interesting ideas, but ultimatively the overall argument lacks realism, making the conclusions less convincing than they could be.

The whole vision is based on a very reductionist / utilitarian worldview that puts too much (unwarrented) trust in the quantifiability of future outcomes. Life is inherently unpredictable, and even the best future AI will not be able to overcome the general knowledge problem that Hayek identified already in the 1940s.

Instead of futile attempts to calculate an inherantly uncertain future or the average wellbeing of humanity (!), true responsibility needs to be based on real behavioral change without the ‘instant’gratification of quantified rules and outcomes. Like another reviewer already stated, we owe the future more than an Arithmetic of Morality.

Nevertheless, the book is full of interesting ideas and food for thought.

Part 1 makes a strong and concinving case for longtermism. I fully agree that humanity behaves as an imprudent teenager while we are living in a pivotal moment in history

Part 2 talks about moral change and the significance, contingency and persistence of values. The case for a 'morally exploratory world' is well made, but looking at the current highly polarized political discourse I’d argue that we would benefit from a more tolerant attitude (instead of cancel culture) already today.

Part 3 discusses the 3 most important risks to society: besides full extinction (via an asteroid, a pandemic, nuclear war), or collapse (similar to the Roman empire) the author considers mere stagnation as an existential risk, too, given that current technologies are already sufficiently powerful to destroy the whole planet, but not yet powerful enough to help us safely avoiding such disaster. I'd argue though that behavioral change (which can be achieved - maybe even easier - in a stagnating society) is at least as important as technological progress.

Part 4 is the least convincing part of the book. The ‘population ethics’ championed here appears to be almost cartoon-like naïve. Also the next chapter - trying to quantify human happiness and progress, which is notoriously difficult - is not very persuasive. (While I appreciate the inclusion of non-human animals in the overall 'calculation', the bizarre conclusion that it might be better for wild animals to not exist at all clearly shows the limits of such quantitative approach.)

The last part is about taking action. Most recommendations here seem to be common sense though that do not really require the 'moral arithmetics' suggested in the earlier parts. Nevertheless, it is here - when discussing concrete (short- and medium-term) choices - where the quantitative approach can help making better decisions – e.g. when it comes to career choices. I wish MacAskill had used his arithmetics more for exposing some of the myths concerning greenwashing and - wishing in our consumption behavior.

Overall conclusion: it is good to have a long term perspective – not only for the planet, but also for a sense of purpose. That itself is an important message that is worth spreading. I'm less convinced by the optimization approaches, and I think it is in general healthy to stay away from bold visions that risk to turn into rigid and potentially dangerous ideologies.

6 people found this helpful

Aryeh Kahn

The future is bright, if enough of us want it to be great

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 16, 2022

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Absolute bargain that this great book is 99p on kindle today. Get it. This is a book that really could shape our future. You won't perhaps agree with everything in it, but the questions and topics it raises are important and thought provoking. And the larger idea that our future could be great happy and positive in tangible ways is important. Optimism drives us forward.

This fascinating yet non-fiction and non-gloomy well written book is a deeply interesting book whatever country you're in. The book is about us all on Earth and it's about what our future could be like. Our future could be great beyond belief and yet predictably charted as likely to be that great by wise use of technology and resources. Clearly that's contingent on politics and business deciding we deserve a great future, but it could happen. Goodness knows we've had a lot of wake-up calls to abandon bad politicians and bad political systems so politics and business might be much better in some countries in the nearish future. We also feel after the pandemic we deserve a great future. It could happen. And by describing a possible great future, this book might help that future happen.

7 people found this helpful

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