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Leon Festinger

Henry W. Riecken

When Prophecy Fails Paperback – November 12, 2009

by Leon Festinger (Author), Henry Riecken (Author), Stanley Schachter (Author)

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2009 reprint of 1956 First edition. When Prophecy Fails [1956] is a classic text in social psychology authored by Leon Festinger, Henry Riecken, and Stanley Schachter. It chronicles the experience of a UFO cult that believed the end of the world was at hand. In effect, it is a social and psychological study of a modern group that predicted the destruction of the world, and the adjustments made when the prediction failed to materialize. "The authors have done something as laudable as it is unusual for social psychologists. They espied a fleeting social movement important to a line of research they were interested in and took after it. They recruited a team of observers, joined the movement, and watched it from within under great difficulties until its crisis came and went. Their report is of interest as much for the method as for the substance."-Everett C. Hughes, The American Journal of Sociology.

Print length

260 pages
Language

English
Publication date

November 12, 2009
Dimensions

6 x 0.65 x 9 inches
ISBN-10

1578988527
ISBN-13

978-1578988525
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Product details

Publisher ‏ : ‎ Martino Publishing (November 12, 2009)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Paperback ‏ : ‎ 260 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1578988527
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1578988525
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 13.6 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 0.65 x 9 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #176,422 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #166 in UFOs (Books)
- #181 in Medical Social Psychology & Interactions
- #385 in Popular Social Psychology & Interactions

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Leon Festinger
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5 star		56%
4 star		23%
3 star		14%
2 star		3%
1 star		4%

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Top reviews from the United States

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E. Rice

A Dissertation?

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on November 23, 2022

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I wasn't prepared to be reading about flying saucers and spacemen, but here I am. This book was not at all what I expected but was a good example of normal people with extraordinary beliefs and the effect they had on each other. If many other religious beliefs had been used instead, it would have been more difficult to be objective, though I have met people who believe a flying saucer will come when they die.

Ho, hum. What a world!

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on September 1, 2022

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A fascinating look at the lengths that people will go to to hang on to a belief system. As the writers admit in the ending chapter, however, the study is flawed by the fact that the observers inevitably affected the outcome of the phenomenon they were observing.

Helpful

Kevin T. Keith

A Somewhat Dated Classic

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on January 21, 2013

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This book is a classic in the fields of first-world anthropology, participant observation, and the psychology of cults. It gives a detailed overview of the first real-world try-out of the hypothesis of "cognitive dissonance" by its founders, in a fascinating observational setting. It follows the founders of this theory as they identified and infiltrated a real-life group as it approached, experienced, and reacted to the ultimate clash of their beliefs with reality, and allows the authors the chance to make a prediction on the basis of their then-new psychological theory and to test it against that reality as it unfolded. It gives a close look at how theoreticians interpret observational data and explain them in terms of their theoretical models. It is also a case study in the difficulties, and ethical quandaries, of participant observation, particularly among small groups, and the compromises and questionable choices that leads to.

The book tells the story of a small "flying-saucer cult" from the 1950s - a group of people who became convinced that the world was going to be destroyed in a great flood on a particular day, on the basis of "messages" one member claimed to have received from advanced aliens on flying saucers, who also corresponded to figures from Christian mythology; these chosen people and their followers would be picked up by the flying saucers just before the disaster and lead a reincarnation of humanity on distant planets. The story is a fascinating look at how people convinced themselves to adopt such bizarre beliefs, and to accept the "evidence" (in the form of coded messages received telepathically by certain members of the group) that supported their beliefs. It traces the growth of the belief through the group, and details how each member reacted and how far they committed themselves to the cult. (Many gave up their jobs and possessions in order to prepare full-time for the visitation, and held all-night vigils waiting for the saucers to come on predicted dates. When the saucers did not come, some became convinced that they had actually met the aliens, visiting Earth in disguise. After the disaster prediction failed, many adopted rationalizations for why there had been no flood, without abandoning the cult.) The authors of the book, who had already posited their theory of how belief groups process the disappointment they experience when their beliefs are proven false (the "cognitive dissonance" of the theory) recognized that this group provided a perfect test case of their theory, and secretly penetrated the group, with several student assistants, by pretending to be believers. They followed the group day-by-day as the predicted disaster date approached, and then afterward when the prediction was shown to be false, interpreting their observations in light of their theory.

However, the story the book tells is now rather old. The book contains very extensive detail on the doings of particular individuals in a small group over a period of months during events that are now long over; it reads slowly and at times tediously. The events of the group were sometimes bizarre, but mostly dull and told in exhaustive detail. This is likely one of the best-documented cases of cult failure ever recorded, and is an invaluable record for professionals interested in the relevant fields of study, but for the general reader the book moves too slowly. The theoretical interpretive sections - which give the book its scholarly significance - are surprisingly short and superficial. The authors recognize the ethical concerns raised by their participating in the events they were recording, and by their technique of lying to the other members to gain their trust, but discuss them only in practical terms (how far their participation tended to distort the events themselves), and very little as a question of research ethics (a subject that at that time was not as developed as it is today).

In short, the book tells a fascinating, at times bizarre, at times hilarious, at times rather sad story, but at excessive length, and with too little meat for the effort required. It stands as an important part of the professional literature, but the story would be better treated in summary format for modern readers. Much more work has been done since then on cognitive dissonance, and there have been other cult-failure events added to the field of study; interested readers might wish to seek a more up-to-date and comprehensive treatment.

7 people found this helpful

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Swuun

Explains - or at least exemplifies - cognitive dissonance at its finest. However...

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on September 17, 2017

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I picked this up because of a mention in a podcast, and found myself fascinated by the general premise. As anyone who's been hanging out in particular corners of media fandom know, there was quite a "prophecy" delivered by a "conspiracy" of people who claimed to read the "true signs" about the endgame between the two main characters of a certain popular BBC detective show. The fact that this did not come to pass on the foretold date has not made the "conspiracy" adherents disappear - indeed, some are more convinced than ever that their endgame is bound to happen.

Reading this book shows that this is a pattern as old as time, and they present two case studies where the endgame was the end of the world or the second coming (with flying saucers, in one case). It makes for riveting, baffling reading - humans are <I>strange</I>, and anything to do with belief and religion doubly so. It explains - or at least exemplifies - cognitive dissonance at its finest.

However, I also feel that it would be highly implausible that an ethics committee would approve the kind of study the authors engaged in back in 1953 today, and it's a bit unsettling reading about very private moments and crises of faith that members of this group had thinking themselves safe with their in-group, only to be riddled with observers bent on publishing everything they said. So I feel I can't really rate this - it's a classic in its field, it's incredibly interesting, but might also be seen as incredibly dodgy?

18 people found this helpful

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Carol walker

Good

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on July 22, 2022

Good read

It's a classic because it is never stops being relevant

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on May 22, 2019

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While reading this wonderful classic for the first time, current examples of exactly the kind of cognitive dissonance introduced therein kept coming to mind, along with how well these conform to the behavioral pattern presented in the book.

Take, for example, climate alarmism. Each round of failed predictions in that sphere only increases the frenzy, proselytizing, and intimidating nature of the next round that are equally destined to be vetoed by reality. How many times have we only had "a decade left until disaster?"

Or how about the cult of "collusion"? A 2+ year multi-million dollar investigation dispels the high hopes of salvation, but to adherents, it just shows we need ever more investigations into collusion and anything and everything else we can dream up.

I used to think people caught in this kind of delusory thinking "really knew" inside that they were off the mark, but continued to pretend because of the feeling of significance, or other advantages, it conferred to them.

But thanks to this book, I have to face the possibility that they really and truly believe!

24 people found this helpful

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Rick Rock

Should be required reading.

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on August 11, 2021

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Should be required reading in every secondary school, but given the composition of most school boards and text book committees, fat chance. THE definitive study. Easy to extrapolate backwards in time, and get a sense of what early Christian groups might have been like, in the wake of a failed messianic expectation. Easy to understand the dynamics behind the gospel myths. Nice to have an empirical study.

One person found this helpful

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Mike D

Can be applicable to today's political climate

Reviewed in the United States 🇺🇸 on July 20, 2021

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It can be a bit hard to follow because there are so many people involved. I have a clearer understanding of some cult behavior.

One person found this helpful

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Top reviews from other countries

Stephen Oberauer

An essential book, but a little long. It is what it is.

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 27, 2012

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It's difficult to rate this book, because it isn't like any other book I've ever read, and doesn't try to be. It is also a very important book, on one of my favourite subjects, "Cognitive Dissonance".

The book is mainly one very long documentary on a small group of people who believed that the world was going to be flooded and that they would be rescued by UFO's.

They make a number of prophecies that obviously never come true and the book explains in great detail and precision what happened to each member for every prophecy.

It goes into so much detail that you can really understand why the people held onto their beliefs. Unfortunately I do consider it to be a bit more detail than I would have liked. It would have been great if the book was half the length that it is.

At the end of the book it explains all the difficulties that the authors and observers had while trying to gather information without affecting the outcome. It also explains that they had sixty-five hours of tape recordings that they had to transcribe into almost a thousand pages, so luckily they have cut it down a lot.

This book gives a great insight into how religious people think.

If you're looking for more on understanding cults, Steve Hassan's Combatting Cult Mind Control: The Number 1 Best-selling Guide to Protection, Rescue and Recovery from Destructive Cults has been recommended by ex-Jehovah's Witnesses.

Stephen Oberauer
Author of The Mischievous Nerd's Guide to World Domination

11 people found this helpful

Starwalker

A missed opportunity

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 1, 2016

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I understand that Festinger's work has been increasingly scrutinized and also criticized. In the density of the details reported, I almost feel that this book 'misses the woods for the trees'. The introduction was promising, but the rest of it read to me like a record of a research project which fails to ask some of the most interesting questions. There is no in-depth psychological profiling of the people most deeply involved in the story, for example, although there is abundant and detailed recount of events.

4 people found this helpful

Tim Clare

Fascinating, important

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on November 13, 2018

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A fascinating classic of social psychology. And hilarious in places! While there may have been flaws in the methodology, this is such a unique study of humans and strangely touching in places. The lessons are important and thought provoking, though it's worth being cautious since the researchers partly created the result they expected through interference. Do read it!

One person found this helpful

Great read. But have to be interested in this field

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on December 11, 2019

Verified Purchase

Amazing book. Goes a long way to explain the complexities of personality traits and the human condition. Can be applied when interacting with people even today

One person found this helpful

chelsea

Very interesting!

Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on May 1, 2022

Verified Purchase

I loved reading this, was so interesting and well-written.

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