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Why the West Rules--for Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future Hardcover – October 12, 2010
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A New York Times Notable Book for 2011
Sometime around 1750, English entrepreneurs unleashed the astounding energies of steam and coal, and the world was forever changed. The emergence of factories, railroads, and gunboats propelled the West's rise to power in the nineteenth century, and the development of computers and nuclear weapons in the twentieth century secured its global supremacy. Now, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, many worry that the emerging economic power of China and India spells the end of the West as a superpower. In order to understand this possibility, we need to look back in time. Why has the West dominated the globe for the past two hundred years, and will its power last?
Describing the patterns of human history, the archaeologist and historian Ian Morris offers surprising new answers to both questions. It is not, he reveals, differences of race or culture, or even the strivings of great individuals, that explain Western dominance. It is the effects of geography on the everyday efforts of ordinary people as they deal with crises of resources, disease, migration, and climate. As geography and human ingenuity continue to interact, the world will change in astonishing ways, transforming Western rule in the process.
Deeply researched and brilliantly argued, Why the West Rules―for Now spans fifty thousand years of history and offers fresh insights on nearly every page. The book brings together the latest findings across disciplines―from ancient history to neuroscience―not only to explain why the West came to rule the world but also to predict what the future will bring in the next hundred years.
- Print length768 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherFarrar, Straus and Giroux
- Publication dateOctober 12, 2010
- Dimensions6.38 x 1.56 x 9.29 inches
- ISBN-100374290024
- ISBN-13978-0374290023
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“In an era when cautious academics too often confine themselves to niggling discussions of pipsqueak topics, it is a joy to see a scholar take a bold crack at explaining the vast sweep of human progress. . .Readers of Why the West Rules-For Now are unlikely to see the history of the world in quite the same way ever again. And that can't be said of many books on any topic. Morris has penned a tour de force.” ―Keith Monroe, The Virginian-Pilot
“If you read one history book this year, if you read one this decade, this is the one.” ―Tim O' Connell, The Florida Times-Union
“A monumental effort...Morris is an engaging writer with deep insights from archaeology and ancient history that offer us compelling visions about how the past influences the future.” ―Michael D. Langan, Buffalo News
“[Morris] has written the first history of the world that really makes use of what modern technology can offer to the interpretation of the historical process. The result is a path-breaking work that lays out what modern history should look like.” ―Harold James, Financial Times
“Morris is a lucid thinker and a fine writer. . .possessed of a welcome sense of humor that helps him guide us through this grand game of history as if he were an erudite sportscaster.” ―Orville Schell, The New York Times Book Review
“A remarkable book that may come to be as widely read as Paul Kennedy's 1987 work, ‘The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.' Like Mr Kennedy's epic, Mr Morris's ‘Why the West Rules--For Now' uses history and an overarching theory to address the anxieties of the present . . . This is an important book--one that challenges, stimulates and entertains. Anyone who does not believe there are lessons to be learned from history should start here.” ―The Economist
“Morris' new book illustrates perfectly why one really scholarly book about the past is worth a hundred fanciful works of futurology. Morris is the world's most talented ancient historian, a man as much at home with state-of-the-art archaeology as with the classics as they used to be studied . . . He has brilliantly pulled off what few modern academics would dare to attempt: a single-volume history of the world that offers a bold and original answer to the question, Why did the societies that make up 'the West' pull ahead of 'the Rest' not once but twice, and most spectacularly in the modern era after around 1500? Wearing his impressive erudition lightly -- indeed, writing with a wit and clarity that will delight the lay reader -- Morris uses his own ingenious index of social development as the basis for his answer.” ―Niall Ferguson, Foreign Affairs
“A formidable, richly engrossing effort to determine why Western institutions dominate the world . . . Readers will enjoy [Morris's] lively prose and impressive combination of scholarship . . . with economics and science. A superior contribution to the grand-theory-of-human-history genre.” ―Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Ian Morris has returned history to the position it once held: no longer a series of dusty debates, nor simple stories--although he has many stories to tell and tells them brilliantly--but a true magister vitae, ‘teacher of life.' Morris explains how the shadowy East-West divide came about, why it really does matter, and how one day it might end up. His vision is dazzling, and his prose irresistible. Everyone from Sheffield to Shanghai who wants to know not only how they came to be who and where they are but where their children and their children's children might one day end up must read this book.” ―Anthony Pagden, author of Worlds and War: The 2,500-Year Struggle Between East and West
“This is an astonishing work by Ian Morris: hundreds of pages of the latest information dealing with every aspect of change. Then, the questions of the future: What will a new distribution bring about? Will Europe undergo a major change? Will the millions of immigrants impose a new set of rules on the rest? There was a time when Europe could absorb any and all newcomers. Now the newcomers may dictate the terms. The West may continue to rule, but the rule may be very different.” ―David S. Landes, author of The Wealth and Poverty of Nations
“Here you have three books wrapped into one: an exciting novel that happens to be true; an entertaining but thorough historical account of everything important that happened to any important people in the last ten millennia; and an educated guess about what will happen in the future. Read, learn, and enjoy!” ―Jared Diamond, Professor of Geography at UCLA, and Pulitzer Prize–winning author of Guns, Germs, and Steel, Collapse, and Natural Experiments of History
“Ian Morris is a classical archaeologist, an ancient historian, and a writer whose breathtaking vision and scope make him fit to be ranked alongside the likes of Jared Diamond and David Landes. His magnum opus is a tour not just d'horizon but de force, taking us on a spectacular journey to and from the two nodal cores of the Euramerican West and the Asian East, alighting and reflecting as suggestively upon 10,800 BC as upon AD 2010. The shape of globalizing history may well never be quite the same again.” ―Paul Cartledge, A. G. Leventis Professor of Greek Culture, Clare College
“At last--a brilliant historian with a light touch. We should all rejoice.” ―John Julius Norwich
“Deeply thought-provoking and engagingly lively, broad in sweep and precise in detail.” ―Jonathan Fenby, author of Modern China: The Fall and Rise of a Great Power, 1850 to the Present
“Morris's history of world dominance sparkles as much with exotic ideas as with extraordinary tales. Why the West Rules--for Now is both a riveting drama and a major step toward an integrated theory of history.” ―Richard Wrangham, author of Catching Fire: How Cooking Made Us Human
“The nearest thing to a unified field theory of history we are ever likely to get. With wit and wisdom, Ian Morris deploys the techniques and insights of the new ancient history to address the biggest of all historical questions: Why on earth did the West beat the Rest? I loved it.” ―Niall Ferguson, author of The Ascent of Money
About the Author
IAN MORRIS is Willard Professor of Classics and History at Stanford University. He has published ten scholarly books, including, most recently, The Dynamics of Ancient Empires, and has directed excavations in Greece and Italy. He lives in the Santa Cruz Mountains in California.
Product details
- Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux (October 12, 2010)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 768 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0374290024
- ISBN-13 : 978-0374290023
- Item Weight : 2.23 pounds
- Dimensions : 6.38 x 1.56 x 9.29 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,063,952 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #923 in International Economics (Books)
- #1,714 in History of Civilization & Culture
- Customer Reviews:
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About the author

Ian Morris is an archaeologist and historian and teaches at Stanford University. Born in Stoke-on-Trent in 1960, he now lives in the Santa Cruz Mountains in California. He has won awards for his writing and teaching, and has directed archaeological digs in Greece and Italy. He has also published 15 books, which have been translated into 19 languages. His newest book, "Geography is Destiny" (Farrar, Straus & Giroux/Profile 2022), examines Britain's place in the world over the 10,000 years since rising waters began separating the Isles from the Continent--and asks where the story will go next. He is a fellow of the British Academy and the Royal Society for the Arts.
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Not all is successful. The huge rise in the 19th and 20th centuries of all of his index's parameters would have demanded that he split it in two; one pre- and one post- industrial, to better account for the peculiarities of both sides of the upturning curve during the Industrial Revolution. As it is, the graphic looks like a 90-degree turn from almost horizontal to almost vertical. It is a realistic view considering the enormous material growth of the last two centuries, but makes comparisons between the pre- and post- era hard to maintain. This is yet exacerbated by his usage of the same index towards the future. There really is no argument anywhere on why the slope should continue to be the same rate in the future.
Another omission that I consider to be important is the almost complete neglect of South Asia. Morris does a very good job of summarizing Chinese and Japanese (for the East) and Middle Eastern and European (for the West) history, the pressures each faced, and the ways they raised (or not) their social development. The annexation of the Americas and Africa into the Western empires in the age of 1500-1950 probably is good enough to justify their omissions. Yet it doesn't seem justifiable to me to omit South Asia in a book that aspires to explain great patterns of history that explain the rise, stagnation or fall of civilizations across each great cultural core in the world. South Asia is clearly independent of both a Sinic East and a Sumerian West, and although in contact with both since classical antiquity, it has never really integrated into either anymore than you could say Japan and the Asian Tigers have Westernized in the last few decades. If even in a global village era it makes sense to speak of West and East (which Morris assumes all the book, but by the end you get the impression he leaves this assumption unjustified and probably is himself not convinced of it), then it should make sense to speak of a "middle" South Asian core too.
However, the real shortcoming of this book is in its extrapolations for the future. While all of them are presented as nothing more than possibilities, you still get the impression that, compared to the great erudition and analysis displayed before, they lack a lot of rigor. Morris has exposed by now, over and over, civilizations dominating their natural environment and modifying their social and economic organization once and again; sometimes giving rise to new heights of development, and sometimes falling victim to nature or to man-made crises. These falls, themselves, sometimes are short and sometimes last for centuries, and the climbing back itself takes several forms, depending on the experiences learned and the new opportunities available. Then he does not seem to try to apply the same to the future. He posits a future where his graphics would continue under the same tendencies, with the standard of living on both the North Atlantic rim and China steadily rising until by 2103 the East surpasses the West and becomes the most advanced civilization. Then he says he doesn't really believe this will happen, and advances a dichotomy between a Singularity future, where technology again breaks all the barriers previously set, advancing social development to heights we can't imagine today; and a Nightfall future, where nuclear war or environmental catastrophe reduce humankind to the stone age again, or even exterminate it. Now, there is no denying that either of these two futures should not be discounted, and should be considered possible. What should be questioned is that *only* these two futures are considered viable by Morris, with no kind of intermediate future. Everything he wrote previously regarding past collapses of empires and civilizations seems to apply again, and imply that a collapse, while possible, should not push humanity back into the stone age, but stall, maybe even reverse, some development, but only temporarily before the challenges were met by new people and civilizations discovering new ways to organize and meet the challenges thrown at them by nature and other humans. Conversely, everything about previous rises of social development indicates that ceilings are approached sometimes and that when this happens, it takes time before any civilization is capable of breaking them. There is nothing in history that predicts either Nightfall or Singularity, and everything to predict some intermediate future, and all the previous chapters stand as proof, which makes it all the more of a shortcoming. (In this context too, it ends up being more of a disappointment that he doesn't examine more regions. South Asia, again, seems like an obvious place to examine, but now again the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and even Latin America could well be regions that discover new advantages of backwardness, surpass both the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, and solve the Gordian knot of Singularity or Nightfall, if indeed it were an unavoidable dichotomy with current ways of organization. It is also disappointing that, although he speculates about nuclear war, financial crises, nanotechnology, robotics, genetics, and clean energy, he only mentions in passing the demographic crises that most of the world is heading toward, including all the core East Asian countries and all of the core Western ones except the USA).
That said, I still give it 5 stars, because it is a very well researched and written book, which as I said, will keep you hooked for more from start to finish. It also seems to me that Morris makes a plausible and well supported argument about the reasons why Western dominance since the 1750s happened, which is its main goal. It should spark debate both about its main issue of Western rise to global dominance, and about its speculations about the future, which should be a positive thing. This is a seminal book, which is sure to become a classic. Yet be aware of the shortcomings I mentioned too.
This is not the sort of book many will be inclined to read fully in just a few long stretches, but on balance it is likely to engage and challenge persons with a serious interest in mega-history. While some specialists in particular domains (say the British industrial revolution, for example) may disagree with some of Mr. Morris' interpretations or find them insufficiently nuanced, that is to be expected for works of broad historical synthesis such as this one.
Morris starts with pre-human "ape-men" (he can turn a phrase) and traces comparative East-West "social development" to the present and beyond. He has devised his own method for measuring it, a quantitative index that takes into account (1) energy capture (calories used); (2) organization, as measured by urbanization; (3) information processing, represented by literacy rates; and (4) the capacity to make war. He graphically plots his estimates of the index scores of the East versus those of the West since 14,000 BCE. The main body of the text describes the historical forces and events underlying the graphical patterns.
There are many objections that might be raised against the quantitative index and Morris is aware of them. He has stated that he nevertheless chose to construct it to help make more explicit what he means when he describes social development in any given period or region. In my opinion, he could have well done without it: it leaves an overall impression of being artificially contrived and unnecessary, a sort of Rube Goldberg approach to assessment of historical development.
Moreover, the question of who was "ahead" in any given epoch, East or West, turns out to be rather secondary to the salient lessons Morris draws from the sweep of history. There is no "long-term lock-in," he concludes, no factor established long-ago that has subsequently determined comparative advantage in perpetuity. The "five horsemen of the apocalypse" -- climate change, disease, famine, migration, and state failure -- have at times radically disrupted development and could do so again. So too, ascendant regions face the "paradox of social development" -- adaptations create new problems that call for further adaptations, possibly undermining the very forces that contributed to past success. Prior backwardness can even become advantageous (for a contemporary example think of low wages as an attraction to capital investment in China, an "advantage" that is eroding as Chinese development progresses).
His rejection of long-term lock-in theories is creditable and well-supported, but Morris also contends that short-term accidents and human leadership do not matter much either in the longer term. We could substitute "bungling idiots" for great men or vice-versa, he says, and at most things may have moved at a different pace to the same destination. Nor, in his opinion, do ideas or culture ultimately help shape development; rather, it is the other way around. These views are contestable, at the very least, and are bound to elicit objections from many other historians.
For Morris the operative factors are biology and sociology, which explain global similarities, and geography, which explains regional differences. Geography has determined the probabilities of where development would rise fastest, but social development changes what geography means, he proposes. For instance, when social development reached the stage where trans-oceanic commercial voyages were feasible, Western societies positioned on the Atlantic gained geographic advantages that in turn spurred further development.
How is it, then, that the long history of comparative development might inform our current prognoses? Morris projects that his index will soar, but faster in the East than the West, with a crossover to Eastern leadership by 2103 at the latest (he is that precise). Yet, according to Morris, the East-West framework may or may not turn out to matter much. Perhaps there will be an all-out East-West war, where even winning would be catastrophic, or maybe arguments about "who rules" will become passé as we will see a need to cooperate further to address global problems.
Morris shifts gears and reframes the question. As he sees it, the world's future pretty much comes down to two possibilities: "Nightfall" or the "Singularity." If we can hold off the worst-case climate change outcomes and nuclear disaster (Nightfall) long enough, he suggests, we might morph into a post-human species (Ray Kurzweil's Singularity, where the full contents of our brains can be uploaded into computers), which he seems to regard as salvation.
I have to say I found this eventual conclusion to be a bit surprising, even peculiar, a big leap from where readers were left before reaching the final chapter. The chasm underscores a fundamental antinomy in Morris' message: we should study history to prepare for the future, but development will now accelerate so fast that history will leave us unprepared.
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Along the way, the author defines and measures social development using an index, which to be honest, is a lagging indicator. But when you look at this on a macroscopic level over a large time frame it makes more sense. Besides, to me at least, the specifics of the measurement itself was secondary; the most important take-away from the book was the argument.
You'll also find factoids and description of events in the book. You'll find in the book a pretty good account of history of the 'west' and the 'east'. The 'west' starts with the Mesopotamian & Egyptian civilizations and with time moves to Greece, Rome, Western Europe and Americas. The 'East' pretty much remains the same - China. In the interest of preserving the relevance of the book to the central argument, the author has skipped other civilizations - Indian, American, Australian etc. but that is small price to pay. The author takes you through a time frame from 14k BCE to now, comparing social development in 'the west' with the 'east' at each point, and provides explanation/hypothesis for the rise/drop in social development at any point
But - and it's a big But - this book was written some years ago, just after the 2008 financial crisis. The author didn't anticipate Europe's failure to respond adequately to the GFC; he didn't anticipate Trump's elephantine effect on America; he didn't anticipate Covid's effect on the world's economy; he didn't anticipate the Ukraine war, which Nato cannot hope to win without going nuclear and can't hope to win if it does; and, worst of all, he didn't anticipate this year's *2023) dramatic proof that climate is real, is devastating, and is now unmistakably upon us.
The author cannot be blamed for not foreseeing this tsunami of disasters. His book describes the disastrous effect of mass migrations on settled, prosperous societies; now we are going to see this for ourselves. The steady stream of refugees we are already unable to deal with is going to become a flood of millions upon millions of climate refugees, sloshing backwards and forwards, looking for somewhere new to settle and not finding it. Or, worse still, finding it.
La clé de lecture choisie, une histoire comparée de l'évolution de l'Occident et de l'Orient, permet aussi de porter un nouveau regard sur l'Histoire telle qu'elle a pu nous être enseignée pendant nos études occidentales. Et les leçons que cette histoire doit nous apprendre pour aujourd'hui et demain offrent aussi des perspectives intéressantes. L'auteur précise bien qu'elles ne sont que spéculation, mais elles prennent leur sens dans la lignée de la thèse soutenue et illustrée tout au long de l'ouvrage.
Doublement intéressant, je recommande !












