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Will China Dominate the 21st Century? 1st Edition
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China?s spectacular growth and expanding global role have led to visions of the 21st century being dominated by the last major state on earth ruled by a Communist Party. In this new edition of his widely acclaimed book, renowned China expert Jonathan Fenby shows why such assumptions are wrong. He presents an analysis of China under Xi Jinping which shows the highly significant challenges it faces which stand in the way of global domination. For all its spectacular growth, it has to deal with major political, economic, social and international tests, each involving structural difficulties that will put the system under strain.
Based on the author's extensive knowledge of contemporary China and his close analysis of Xi's leadership, this incisive analysis offers a pragmatic view of where the country is heading at a time when its future is too important an issue for wishful theorizing.
- ISBN-100745679269
- ISBN-13978-0745679266
- Edition1st
- PublisherPolity
- Publication dateFebruary 24, 2014
- LanguageEnglish
- Dimensions5.2 x 0.65 x 7.8 inches
- Print length120 pages
Editorial Reviews
Review
International Affairs
"Leading China commentator Jonathan Fenby’s latest book on China's position in the world offers a nuanced picture of the country's strengths and weaknesses." China Daily "Fenby understands to its deepest roots the nature of Chinese Communist Party rule and its effect throughout society. The Party will, therefore, hate his eloquent and merciless dissection of its entire record and performance. But readers new to China should start right here." Jonathan Mirsky, Times Higher Education "An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issues China faces in the immediate future." Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise "The development of any country is accompanied by twists and turns. This book is a reminder that it is still too early to position the world at the dawn of a Chinese century." Global Times "Fenby's concise, yet comprehensive, essay should be the first thing read by anyone with an interest - business, political, or intellectual - in the future of China." Charles Horner, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute "An excellent, current guide to the challenges and dangers ahead for modern China. It describes, with verve and insight, why the 'China Dream' may lead to a chilly awakening. Fenby, a delightful writer, explains why China will not dominate the 21st century, with compelling critiques and a sharp, clear summary of its economic and political challenges."
Robert B. Zoellick, former president of the World Bank Group, U.S. Trade Representative, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State
"Jonathan Fenby offers a well-informed and balanced assessment of China's past and prospects, recognising its remarkable economic achievements but also noting the huge economic, social and political challenges it confronts. China will not, he concludes, dominate the world in the 21st century. He is almost certainly right."
Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, the Financial Times
"A smart, wise, well written essay which answers with much common sense and learning one of the biggest questions of our time."
Chris Patten
"An excellent summary of the broad spectrum of very serious issues China faces in the immediate future."
Fraser Howie, author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise
"In this brief but thought-provoking book, acclaimed China specialist Jonathan Fenby challenges and punctures a number of myths about China's rise and offers valuable insights its current dilemmas and unpredictable future. A stimulating 'must read' for all observers of the China scene."
David Shambaugh, George Washington University and the Brookings Institution
"Jonathan Fenby has managed a highly impressive feat: within a short and elegant text, he has pinpointed the real challenges facing China today if it is truly to become a global actor that will play a serious role in the coming century. The insights give us a road-map for what we might expect from this superpower in the making. A compelling and essential read from a premier China analyst."
Rana Mitter, author of China's War with Japan, 1937-1945: The Struggle for Survival
"China is a bubble in multiple ways - not least in the way its supposed never-ending rise is interpreted and understood in the west. Jonathan Fenby shows courage and insight in pricking the bubble in this important book."
Will Hutton
"Fenby's thoughtful, balanced analysis of what China has achieved, how it has done so, and the challenges ahead is an excellent corrective to the surfeit of overly laudatory and excessively dire assessments of China's future and its implications for the world."
Thomas Fingar, Stanford University
"In this spirited and insightful book, Jonathan Fenby takes on the China bulls with a clear-eyed look at China’s dysfunctional political system, which does not appear up to the task of tackling the social, legal, economic, environmental, demographic and security challenges facing the country. Highly recommended."
Joseph Fewsmith, Boston University, author of The Logic and Limits of Political Reform in China
"In the flood of books on China, this is one of the most concise and clearly written."
The Age
"The beauty of Fenby’s book is that it is superbly concise; with over 30 years’ experience of covering China, Fenby is able to distil complex ideas down to their core elements and burnish them with accompanying illustrative anecdotes."
LSE Review of Books
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Product details
- Publisher : Polity; 1st edition (February 24, 2014)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 120 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0745679269
- ISBN-13 : 978-0745679266
- Item Weight : 8.5 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.2 x 0.65 x 7.8 inches
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Browsing through the various, often over-boosted books on China Jonathan Fenby's caught my eye for the simple reason that Fenby had had the benefit of working as editor of the South China Morning Post for five years (1995-2000) at a particularly significant time in China's growing rapprochement with the West and therefore had direct day-to-day experience of life and politics in China.
I found Fenby's style lucid and accessible, his themes well developed and solidly grounded in his direct dealings with China and her people. He explains clearly the main areas of difficulty that China is facing as it develops its economy and civil society and increases its interaction with the West.
As its title suggest Fenby's book is primarily concerned with the question of whether China will come to dominate the 21st century? In his account of their history and the Government's vision for the country Fenby mirrors Kissinger's view of how China sees itself and where it would like to go. Where Fenby diverges from Kissinger is in how successful he thinks China will be in surmounting the challenges it must overcome to achieve this vision. Kissinger believes that Chinese determination, tenacity, skill and entrepreneurship would find a way to overcome the difficulties. Fenby makes a compelling case that unless major changes are made in the way the country is run then ultimately the fundamental paradox of economic but not political freedom at the heart of the way the Communist Party governs the country will limit the success of the Chinese people in achieving their aspirations. The interest and the relevance of this book lie in the reasons that Fenby lays out as to why he believes this to be the case.
This short, but detailed account of modern China deserves to be more widely known and read.
Critics will point to the reforms that have indeed occurred, regularly, over the last 40 years, but Fenby shows they are often rather cosmetic. A more serious criticism is that the Chinese people remain the tough, resilient, hopeful people they have always been. They have survived a great deal over time and will probably survive this. On recent visits to China I become more and more impressed with the degree that people can remain upbeat and hard-working in spite of an appalling pollution load, pervasive corruption, and an uncertain future.
This book could be longer and more detailed--at around 30,000 words it's more a long article than a book. Fenby also could be somewhat faulted for lack of proportion: he talks about minor economic glitches and the devastating pollution crisis as if they were equivalent, which they are not. The economic glitches could, and probably will, be solved easily. The pollution of soil, air and water is here to stay for the foreseeable future, and, as he reports, is killing millions of people a year. I think that China will hit an ecological wall when waste and pollution of water become really serious; economists who talk about "infinite substitutability" of resources never think of water. Food is also critical, with farmland down to the bare minimum and the country buying vast tracts of Africa and Brazil. Economic lock-ins make cleanup ever more difficult.
Another dangerous development, mentioned but not perhaps discussed enough, is the rise of serious ethnic hatred. One now hears really bad things said by ordinary people about Tibetans, Uighurs, and Japanese--things that would not have been openly said even a few years ago. Until now, China was free of the devastating ethnic and religious hatreds that paralyze the US, India, Pakistan, and other countries. Trouble may be ahead in this area.
One can only agree with Fenby that China has no chance of dominating the 21st century, unless massive reform occurs. Fenby well describes the problem that occurs as an aging elite, supported on a pyramid of dubious reliability, has to fight against citizen protest and advocacy, to maintain its power. Its reach now extends to American media and academia; newspapers and professors are threatened with being banned from China if they so much as report protest.
The future is unclear. The people could somehow find spokespersons in the elite, and force change while there is time. Conversely, a nightmare scenario might have the United States collapsing economically (as its banking system and oil firms get more and more criminal and dysfunctional), taking the Chinese economy down with it. Jose Luis Borges' imaginary "Chinese" curse, "May you live in interesting times," has come to pass.
Rien de très neuf , dans ce livre, bien documenté, qui a le mérite de re-dire encore une fois, ce que l'on ne saurait oublier.
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In terms of his argument I felt like the problems he discusses are not existential threats and are solveable which kinda makes the entire book a moot point. He also falls into the trap of what most Western China observers fall into - China's model of governance is not Western (no separation of powers) which will lead to its demise.
Overall it's a pleasant read, just that it feels a little suface levely.
It seems to an outsider that China has all the hallmarks of the next superpower and to read this provided some very thoughtful insight to the contrary and having no knowledge going in I think it's two afternoons well spent.