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The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn Kindle Edition

4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 14 ratings

How the creation of the Nobel Prize in Economics changed the economics profession, Sweden, and the world

Economic theory may be speculative, but its impact is powerful and real. Since the 1970s, it has been closely associated with a sweeping change around the world—the "market turn." This is what Avner Offer and Gabriel Söderberg call the rise of market liberalism, a movement that, seeking to replace social democracy, holds up buying and selling as the norm for human relations and society. Our confidence in markets comes from economics, and our confidence in economics is underpinned by the Nobel Prize in Economics, which was first awarded in 1969. Was it a coincidence that the market turn and the prize began at the same time?
The Nobel Factor, the first book to describe the origins and power of the most important prize in economics, explores this and related questions by examining the history of the prize, the history of economics since the prize began, and the simultaneous struggle between market liberals and social democrats in Sweden, Europe, and the United States.

The Nobel Factor tells how the prize, created by the Swedish central bank, emerged from a conflict between central bank orthodoxy and social democracy. The aim was to use the halo of the Nobel brand to enhance central bank authority and the prestige of market-friendly economics, in order to influence the future of Sweden and the rest of the developed world. And this strategy has worked, with sometimes disastrous results for societies striving to cope with the requirements of economic theory and deregulated markets.

Drawing on previously untapped Swedish national bank archives and providing a unique analysis of the sway of prizewinners,
The Nobel Factor offers an unprecedented account of the real-world consequences of economics—and its greatest prize.

Editorial Reviews

Review

"Selected for Bloomberg View’s “The Writing that Shaped Economic Thinking in 2016”"

"Selected for Canada’s Financial Post Best Personal Finance and Economics Books of 2016"

Review

"Fascinating."―Justin Fox, Bloomberg View

"Intellectual history at its best."
―E. Stina Lyon, Times Higher Education

"Well-informed, trenchant."
Richard N. Cooper, Foreign Affairs

"An illuminating and sometimes astonishing book that throws new light on the rise of the new right and the assault on the intellectual underpinning of social democracy. Lateral thinking at its very best―a must-read."
―Will Hutton, author of The State We're In

"I love this book."
―Mark Blyth, author of Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea

Product details

  • ASIN ‏ : ‎ B01EBEIL0G
  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Princeton University Press (October 3, 2016)
  • Publication date ‏ : ‎ October 3, 2016
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • File size ‏ : ‎ 7236 KB
  • Text-to-Speech ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Screen Reader ‏ : ‎ Supported
  • Enhanced typesetting ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • X-Ray ‏ : ‎ Not Enabled
  • Word Wise ‏ : ‎ Enabled
  • Print length ‏ : ‎ 340 pages
  • Page numbers source ISBN ‏ : ‎ 0691196311
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 14 ratings

Customer reviews

4.4 out of 5 stars
14 global ratings

Top reviews from the United States

Reviewed in the United States on November 6, 2016
The Nobel Factor represents an ambitious exploration of recent economic history, and in many ways a successful one. Basically it undertakes a broad assessment of the state of the economics “science” as documented by the main contributions of the 76 Prize winners from 1969 to 2015. The authors acknowledge the theoretical beauty and internal validity of many of the contributions, but come down hard on the lack of external relevance of the practical results. It argues that the economic policy prescriptions have been few, and those that have been applied have proven mistaken. The book disputes the standing of economics as a science, and the authors are skeptical whether the Nobel imprimatur is warranted
The book’s analytical strategy is to contrast the economics professions love of mathematical modeling against the practical work of economics in each nation. The “market turn” associated with the so-called Chicago-school’s ascendance in 1980s and 90s (and the ensuing Nobel Prizes awarded) have led to a decline in the kind welfare economics emphasized in more social democratic nations. The authors demonstrate how the strictures imposed on debtor nations by IMF and other international banking institutions have not only failed to work but have also led to much unnecessary suffering. The books chapter on the “Washington Consensus” is a devastating indictment of the Chicago school’s disastrous international influence.
The book also argues social democracy leads not only to a more humane society but also to better economic performance. The expensive health care system in the United States is repeatedly used to contrast the American thrust towards deregulation and privatization with the balanced social democratic Scandinavian countries whose economic performance has been better than the American.
The Nobel committee awarding the prize was long led by adherents of the pro-market thinking. This seems to be one reason why the Nobel Prize awards have not favored economists with social democratic leanings, despite the Swedish connection. Two such well-known economists who could have been strong candidates in the past, John Kenneth Galbraith and Joan Robinson, were apparently not taken seriously, lacking in mathematical modeling skills.
It is easy to see how the book’s dismissal of theoretical contributions such as Robert Lucas’ “rational expectations hypothesis” or even Milton Friedman’s “quantity theory of money” for their lack of realism or lack of policy success might infuriate market puritans. The authors’ personal biases in favor of social democratic solutions also shine through much of the analysis and discussion.
Nevertheless, the book is an invaluable addition to the economics literature and the Nobel Prize history. It becomes clear why Alfred Nobel himself, if alive in 1969, likely would not have approved a Nobel Prize for economics, and why Nobel Prize winners in the more scientific fields might feel the prestige of their Nobel Prize devalued by the prize in economics.
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Reviewed in the United States on February 23, 2017
The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn. Avner Offer and Gabriel Soderberg. 2016.

The authors argue that in 1969 the Swedish business elite managed to acquire the Nobel name for a prize in economics for the purpose of exaggerating the scientific authority of market-liberalism to overturn Social Democracy. This prize in economics was not part of the original group of Nobel prizes awarded every year since 1901. This is hardly surprising since Alfred Nobel had written that he hated business and considered himself a social democrat. Nevertheless, the prize was created by the central bank of Sweden by providing an endowment funded by taxpayers and by persuading the Nobel Foundation (dominated by businessmen), the Royal Swedish Academy of Science (which resisted), and the Nobel family to lend the prestige of its name. However, the family insisted in setting the prize apart by naming it the “Prize in Economic Science in Memory of Alfred Nobel.”

The authors contend that the Nobel-selection committee, which did not include a single left-leaning economist until the 1990s, was biased from its onset toward the right compared to economists generally. This is documented by multiple surveys of economists over several decades that consistently show 2/3 favored Social Democratic norms, while only 1/3 strongly opposed them in both Europe and the U.S (see fig. 1). A study of doctoral students in the top six American universities showed that 2/3 were left of center in 1985 and still left of center when followed up in the 2000s. A poll of senior American economists by the Economist in 2008 found 46% Democrats, 44% independents, 10% Republicans, and 80% supporting Obama’s policies.

The politics of the selection process are examined by a review of the history of the committee and by extensive graphic analysis of the lifetime patterns of citations of the candidates’ research. Prizes were split relatively evenly between left-leaning and right-leaning economists, but did not reach the 2/3 to 1/3 split in the discipline. The committee advanced its viewpoint by focusing on studies of markets and by presenting economics as more scientific than it is. Some highly regarded liberal economists appear to have been blackballed—permanently for J. K. Galbraith and Joan Robinson and temporarily for Stiglitz and Akerlof. On the other hand, the prize in 1974 rescued the status of the conservative Friedrich von Hayek (author of The Road to Serfdom), whose career had been at a dead end since the 1950s.

The authors set the actions of the Nobel Committee in the context of the struggle between social democrats and market-liberalism of business elites. Market-liberalism is characterized as considering market exchange as superior to all alternatives with no role for government and with no concern for advantages from inequality of endowments of wealth, connections, ability, education, and health or for unequal rewards. Nordic Social democracy is characterized as a vision of reciprocal solidarity, in which immediate self-interest is subordinated to collective advantage, with the addition of government programs to correct market failure so that health, education, welfare, and housing are pulled out of the market and predation of labor is prevented by central negotiation between employers and trade unions.

The authors note that due to social democracy with mixed economies, no societies on earth are farther from serfdom than the Nordic welfare states, which are among the richest and most equitable in the world. In these states earnings growth is shared by all rather than just a few at the top as in the U.S. (see fig. 2). In addition public sector social insurance is more than an order of magnitude cheaper to administer than market insurance for sickness, disability, and unemployment. Compared to the U.K., the U.S. health system costs twice as much, has inferior outcomes, and fails to cover everyone.

According to the authors, the market-liberalism favored by the Nobel Committee is not entitled to the authority of science because it lacks natural science’s widely shared core principles and requirement for empiric validation. Its main feature is that its doctrines are highly convenient for great wealth, polluting industry, risky finance, and those who don’t want to pay taxes or help the needy. Moreover, the mostly theoretical neoclassical economics at its base has been largely discredited in the last several decades by the rise of empiric and behavioral economics. These disciplines have disproven many of the theoretical conclusions, assumptions, and models about perfect markets, rational choice, and so on by actual rigorous measurement and observation.

Models of market efficiency (the invisible hand) fail because assumed extensive uniformity, perfect information, and perfect competition, not to mention an absence of bad faith, opportunism, and fraud do not exist in the real world. Also, efficiency is worth having, but so are other values, such as truth, justice, freedom, loyalty, and obligation. Models of Rational Choice (informed self-interest) fail because of the same assumptions and because actual human choice has been shown to differ greatly from that of models. Also, the self-interest model excludes other influences, such as friendship, love, loyalty, charity, and integrity. The Just World Theory, which states that everyone gets what he deserves regardless of prior endowments, justifies inequality and hardship as arising from individual desert. Thus its purpose is to dismantle constrains on the wealthy and dismantle protections for everybody else. It is essentially a license to inflict pain. The Optimal Taxation Model suggested a low linear tax of 20-30% with marginal rates declining as income increased until they reached zero for the top earner. The model is open to many criticisms and other top economists have suggested a top rate of 78%, not zero.

Despite these and many more shortcomings, market-liberalism, with authority boosted by several Nobel Prizes, managed to gain political ascendancy in the past several decades and helped bring about the negative consequences of the “market turn” referred to in the book’s title. The massive redistribution of wages and benefits away from workers and toward wealthy elites caused soaring inequality. Deregulation contributed to the financial crisis of 2007. The introduction of ownership equity incentives for managers led to systematic plundering of corporations. Privatizing of welfare functions led to inferior programs with higher risk, lower employer contributions, and high fees (25-40% for pension investment). Imposition of austerity by the IMF and World Bank according to the “Washington Consensus” led to slower economic growth, collapsed wages, lower standards of living, and increased corruption throughout Latin America, Southeast Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe.

The authors ask, “What warrant does Nobel economics provide for the market turn? As science, not much….Economics, even Nobel economics does not hang together very well….The massive empirical turn in economics during the last two decades, the work of field experiments and historical ‘natural experiments’, is a silent repudiation of equilibrium economics. To recapture validity, economics has to come down to the ground of argument, evidence, and counterargument, supported by reason and an open mind.”
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Reviewed in the United States on December 10, 2016
This is an excellent clearly written and accessible introduction to the underlying ideological battles in economics. As the authors demonstrate economics is not science, it a language in which important social and economic policy debates play out. The authors provide a well researched history of the Nobel in economics and the key role that it plays in defending mainstream thinking.
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Reviewed in the United States on November 28, 2016
Superb study of Nobel Prize in Economics, of how it was established, who won, and why. Second half is highly repetitive and less interesting. Overall, well worth reading.
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recluse
4.0 out of 5 stars なぜこんな奇怪な賞がつくられたのか?
Reviewed in Japan on January 12, 2020
毎年、ノーベル経済学賞の受賞者が発表されるのだが、長年抱いている疑問があった。それは2つの疑問だ。一つは、なぜ社会科学の中で、経済学だけにノーベル賞という権威が付与されているのか。もう一つは、この賞がなぜスウェーデンの中央銀行という組織によって付与されているのか。

前者については、ノーベル文学賞や平和賞というさらに奇怪ないわくつきのいかがわしい賞が存在しているわけで、そういう意味では経済学賞という追加のいかがわしい存在があっても不思議ではない。ただ、後者については、皆目見当がつかないままであった。アメリカの経済学者のMirowskiがノーベル経済学賞についての著作を準備していると耳にしていたので、それを楽しみにしていたところだった。最近、アマゾンで本書を見つけ、読むべきどうか迷ったが、魅力的な値段(1500円)がつけられており、結局読むこととなった。ちなみに本書の序文でも、当初はMirowskiと共同作業をしていた経緯について触れられていたのには驚いた。

本書の狙いは意欲的なものだ。大きく言ってテーマは3つに分かれるだろう。一つは、経済学という学問は、はたして「科学」といえるのかという議論だ。二つは、この賞の創設をスウェーデンという特異な国家経済運営を歴史的に行ってきた社会での路線対立の文脈の中でたどることだ。三つ目は、社会民主主義と新自由主義との相克を戦後のスウェーデンの経済の軌跡の中で位置付けることだ。そういう意味では、本書は経済学者による政治経済学の作品といっていいだろう。

さてどの程度この狙いは果たせたのだろうか。「経済学が科学か」という議論は、過去の経済学説を様々な角度から吟味することによりなされている。この吟味から明らかになるのは、経済学とは「科学」という代物とは似て非なる問題的な存在ということが明らかにされていく。特に一般均衡理論や合理的期待仮説の理論的前提は決して証明されているものでもなく、そこから引きだれる結論や援用されるモデルもそのほとんどが実証的な批判に耐えないことが明らかにされていく。つまるところイデオロギーなのだ。問題は、これらの重大な欠陥を抱えた経済学が科学という美名のもとで政府の政策を動かしているという政治的な倒錯だ。その倒錯を助けているのが、ノーベル経済学賞がもたらす権威というわけだ。

この賞の創設については、様々な関係者との面談や戦後スウェーデンの経済史をたどることによって明らかにされていく。社会民主党政権が長い期間にわたって政権運営を担ってきたスウェーデンだが、そこにも経済運営をめぐる哲学的な対立が、社会民主党と独立を志向する中央銀行の間に存在したことが明らかにされる。この思想闘争の中で、中央銀行が自分の政治的な立場を維持し、理論武装のために作り出したのがノーベル経済学賞という錦の御旗という存在だったのだ。ちょうどこの賞が創設されたのが1969年というわけで、ブレトンウッヅ体制の崩壊の直前だったというのは象徴的だ。そしてそこに政治的にかかわって、80年代以降のスウェーデンの経済政策に大きな影響を与えたLindbeckという存在は興味深い。

もっともだからと言ってこの賞の受賞者がすべて新自由主義者で占められていたというわけではない。その比率は半々といったところだろうか。賞の受賞者の決定経過に関わる記録は50年の封印がなされているようで、その経過は本書でもブラックボックスのままだ。ただこの比率から想像できるように、バランスを意識した選考がなされていたようだ。これ自体は経済学という学問の多様性を示している。とはいえ、個々の受賞者の専門誌での引用を時系列的に統計処理した部分は非常に興味深い。この学問にもたしかに流行というものが存在しており、1970年以降の市場主義の勃興の中でのFriedman、Arrowの存在は圧倒的なのだ。

三番目の狙いでもある、スウェーデンの経済パフォーマンスだが、ここでは80年代以降の自由化と規制緩和が同国の成長力の減退を引き起こし、後の金融危機を引き起こしたことが指摘されている。ただこの部分は議論が分かれるところだろう。

非常に意欲的な作品だが、ちょっと大風呂敷を広げ過ぎたような感じが正直な読後感だ。ただ明らかになったのは、経済学というのは決して価値中立的な科学ではないという当たり前の事実。そこに反映されているのは基本的には学者やその時代の価値観以上のものではないのだ。それに基づいてまたそれをアリバイとして経済社会のかなりの部分が動かされているというわけだ。
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An economic historian
5.0 out of 5 stars Read it!
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on November 19, 2016
The best and clearest thing I have read on the nature of economics for many years.
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