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John Maynard Keynes

A Treatise on Probability (Dover Books on Mathematics) Hardcover – April 28, 2004

by John Maynard Keynes (Author), Mathematics (Author)

32 ratings

Part of: Dover Books on Mathematics (210 Books)

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With this treatise, an insightful exploration of the probabilistic connection between philosophy and the history of science, John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) breathed new life into studies of both disciplines. Originally published in 1921, the famous economist's most important mathematical work represented a significant contribution to the theory regarding the logical probability of propositions. Keynes effectively dismantled the classical theory of probability, launching what has since been termed the "logical-relationist" theory. In so doing, he explored the logical relationships between classifying a proposition as "highly probable" and as a "justifiable induction."
A Treatise on Probability argues that probability is a matter of logic, which renders it objective: a statement involving probability relations possesses a truth value independent of opinion. Keynes demonstrates that if a hypothesis has even the smallest finite probability, it can be transformed into certainty by a sufficient number of observations. This is his attempt to overcome Humean skepticism by asserting that theoretically grounded hypotheses need only exhibit finite probability to form the basis of science and rational action. Another key idea discussed in A Treatise on Probability is that probability relations constitute only a partially ordered set in the sense that two probabilities cannot necessarily always be compared. Keynes further maintains that probability is a basic concept that cannot be reduced to other concepts.

Print length

480 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Dover Publications
Publication date

April 28, 2004
Dimensions

6.25 x 1.25 x 9 inches
ISBN-10

0486495809
ISBN-13

978-0486495804
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Product details

Publisher : Dover Publications (April 28, 2004)
Language : English
Hardcover : 480 pages
ISBN-10 : 0486495809
ISBN-13 : 978-0486495804
Item Weight : 1.47 pounds
Dimensions : 6.25 x 1.25 x 9 inches

Best Sellers Rank: #5,479,891 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1,375 in Science Bibliographies & Indexes
- #5,266 in Philosophy of Logic & Language
- #13,885 in Probability & Statistics (Books)

Customer Reviews:
32 ratings

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Customer reviews

5 star		58%
4 star		5%
3 star		10%
2 star		9%
1 star		17%

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Top reviews from the United States

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Very interesting book...if you are into math.

Reviewed in the United States on April 15, 2016

Verified Purchase

If you are into statistics and probability, you should study this text. JMK explores both the logic and mathematical structure of probability analysis.

If you are not into statistics, this book will bore you to death. However, the bigger question would be why are you reading reviews of a statistical text?

4 people found this helpful

Kenneth Zimmerman

Historical book

Reviewed in the United States on March 5, 2013

Verified Purchase

Truly an historical, seminal book. It changed the direction and tone for all human history, including of course economics and history.

3 people found this helpful

Book Not Readable

Reviewed in the United States on March 8, 2011

Verified Purchase

Save your $0.99! This is an unreadable edition of a great book. After opening my wirelessly delivered copy, I found the following:

TIIK Hubjtwl mutter of this book was first broached i the brain of Lfibuix, who, in thn dwHortation, written in his twenty-third yiwr, o the woilt .....

And so it continues, page after page. This from a product "optimized for my Kindle"? It reads like a Robert Benchley parody of Old English.

I obviously will not sue Amazon to recover my $0.99, but I will advise others to not buy this edition of Keynes excellent book.

11 people found this helpful

Reviewed in the United States on September 30, 2014

Verified Purchase

I brought this book as gift for my son. It was neatly packed.

Mr. Trevor Morgan

Reviewed in the United States on June 8, 2017

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Heavy but worthwhile read

Great book, pity about the kindle version

Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2013

Verified Purchase

I purchased the kindle version of this book to tide me over whilst waiting for the hard copy to arrive in the mail. This important and informative book is, in this incarnation, riddled with typographical errors. It is not unreadable but it irritates as much as it informs (and the formulae ought not to be quoted).

3 people found this helpful

Interesting and scary

Reviewed in the United States on January 22, 2010

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So you think you know how and why the markets work the way they do.... Try reading this!

2 people found this helpful

Historically important ... but.

Reviewed in the United States on November 2, 2008

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The author introduces key concepts for the first time. He also introduces some ideas that I had not seen before. The book is historically important. However, the author's writing style is very much a product of his time - obviously brevity was not considered a virtue. The book is really, painfully long. If you are a historian, great. If you are looking for key concepts in statistical theory, there are other books that will get to the point much quicker.

13 people found this helpful

Top reviews from other countries

Mr. TOUMPAS KONSTANTINOS

Five Stars

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 3, 2016

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All time classic by the ONE ECONOMIST who rules them ALL. Respect.

Amazon Customer

Though there is a warning on typos it so happens ...

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 16, 2017

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Though there is a warning on typos it so happens that all mathematical formulae are misprinted and do not make any sense. Since this is a mathematical book it makes no sense to sell it in this form.

Dr. David J. Marsay

There is more to uncertainty than just numbers

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 20, 2009

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Keynes points out some of the limitations of a numeric theory of probability, building on some of the ideas of his tutor, A.N. Whitehead, later published in Process and Reality (Gifford lectures) . (E.g., when long-term uncertainty has to be handled differently from short-run probability.) The work underpinned his more popular The Economic Consequences of the Peace (New Edition) , which showed that - contrary to the numeric theory - a sustained depression was likely. Keynes was encouraged by Lloyd George to write these, to capture some of the lessons identified during the Great War and the planning for the subsequent peace.

This became of more interest following the financial problems of 2007/8, which have been linked to an over-reliance on numeric measures.

One person found this helpful

Amazon カスタマー

Bad and incorrect conversions of mathematical symbols

Reviewed in Japan on September 3, 2018

Verified Purchase

All most all mathematical symbols are entirely disfigured and are illegible. Hence, the text cannot be read. No way to recommend the book in this condition to others. No body will buy a car without four wheels.

TAKAGI Yasunobu

Cannot be read!

Reviewed in Japan on February 21, 2013

Verified Purchase

This book contains failed scanned data only. You cannot read even a word.

One person found this helpful

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