It is strange to think that we can choose our future in global terms, although we take it for granted in our individual and family life. In fact we seek as much control over our lives as we can, as we don't like being interrupted by unscheduled meetings, unannounced power cuts or breakdowns in public services. On a global basis we seem to accept major disruptions and our lack of control as a matter of course - as witnessed by the recent flooding and heat waves in Europe and other disasters around the world. But, as the authors tell us in this book written in 1982, we chose this particular future. It was a conscious selection. Perhaps we don't recognize it as such but a decision not to act is still a decision. Ask any insurer what has happened to natural disaster insurance claims and premiums since World War II and you will be told that they have gone through the roof. Once again, this was our choice.
The authors lay out the facts very clearly and outlined seven possible tomorrows. The book was a plea to our leaders and decision-makers to select the tomorrow they wanted and then to implement the required strategies to get us there. That we are in our present mess was a decision to carry on with business as usual and adopt a laissez faire approach - one of the tomorrows forecast. We are now reaping as we sowed. Are we wiser today that we were twenty years ago? If we think so then we should read this book because it provides a template that can be readily updated. Some doors to some futures may have closed while other more horrific ones may have opened but the message is the same - we have choice in determining our future.
Hawken, Ogilvy and Schwartz start by pointing out that the problems and options encountered by humankind in recent decades require a rigorous and intelligent stance toward our fate. As the highest evolved species on the planet we have the capacity to invent and to choose a better way to live. There are about one hundred variables such as desertification, demographics and resource distribution together with major driving trends - energy, climate, food, the economy and values - which are listed because they have the broadest effect on the greatest number of people. By putting all these into a matrix, removing incompatible relationships, seven scenarios were produced, any of which could have been made to happen if enough people made a big enough effort. It is virtually impossible for the world to evade the driving trends but uncertainties arise from such things as new technology (the Internet was not mentioned), war and its ramifications, mankind's response to information and the value system adopted.
Complications arise because everything is connected and establishing the causal chain for scenario projection becomes complex. A simple example is that the US, being a rich nation, bids up the price of oil, farmers up-river from Bangladesh use cow dung (formerly used as fuel) for crops, trees are cut for fuel, top soil erodes and Bangladesh is flooded, sweeping thousands to their death. That such actions, reactions and suffering stems from wasteful driving habits in the US is real but difficult to accept. Another complication is perception. After the 1929 crash all the factories, raw materials and workers remained in place but the elaborate tissue of our civilized life - promises, contracts, agreements - were based on perceptions and these had changed. When people believe a bank no longer deserves their trust, a run on the bank causes its collapse and confirms their worst fears. People's perception of the future plays an important role in determining the future.
The 1960s and 1970s witnessed many wild cards - low probability events that had a profound influence on society. Unfortunately, low probability events have high probability over time. 9/11/2001 is an example of a wildcard event which was on many lists but not high enough to budget for. The perception of a specific event or collection of events is highly variable depending upon where you stand on the world scene. Even twenty years ago the authors considered the growing gap between rich and poor a threat which could produce a wild card. Since then technology has strengthened the power of the individual and there is an increasing probability of wild card events affecting our lives.
The value of this book is that it provides a model that we can use today for deciding the future we want. If we are wiser today than twenty years ago we will agree on the future we want, plan how to get there and then have the courage to implement it. Only in this way will we wrest back some real control over our lives.
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