Secular Cycles

by Peter Turchin (Author), Sergey A. Nefedov (Author)

12 customer reviews

ISBN-13: 978-0691136967

ISBN-10: 0691136963

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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles.

Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire. Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications.

An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

This book is an audacious and ambitious attempt to promote the viewpoint that historical progression runs according to certain regular patterns. . . . I am fascinated by this book, particularly by the theoretical framework which is laid out in the introductory and concluding chapters. . . . [T]he main strength of the book lies in its scope, reminiscent of the broad perspectives of classical economists. It is the type of scholarship which proves that historical narrative can be fascinating.---Harry Kitsikopoulos, EH.net

Those who are interested in grand social theories will want to read and reflect. I suspect that there will be many who then will rebut.---Brian J. L. Berry, American Journal of Sociology

Turchin and Nefedov have set a very ambitious task for themselves. . . . [T]hey should be applauded for producing a work of very broad historical sweep and reminding us that developing general laws--or more plausibly, general tendencies--of historical dynamics remains a tantalizing proposition.---David S. Jacks, Australian Economic History Review

[T]he standard of historical scholarship is excellent and opens the floor to interesting challenges for further empirical explorations.---Laura Panza, Economic Record

"Secular Cycles is an ambitious, audacious, and engaging achievement from two very talented scholars. This stimulating book will attract interdisciplinary attention from those interested in global history and secular economic change."―Cormac Ó Gráda, author of Famine

"I am impressed and delighted by the breadth, rigor, creativity, originality, and power of this book. The graphs present the data in a fashion that will be clear to any audience, and the text is straightforward and persuasive. This book carries the study of historical dynamics to a whole new level."―Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University

From the Inside Flap

"Secular Cycles is an ambitious, audacious, and engaging achievement from two very talented scholars. This stimulating book will attract interdisciplinary attention from those interested in global history and secular economic change."--Cormac Ó Gráda, author of Famine

"I am impressed and delighted by the breadth, rigor, creativity, originality, and power of this book. The graphs present the data in a fashion that will be clear to any audience, and the text is straightforward and persuasive. This book carries the study of historical dynamics to a whole new level."--Jack A. Goldstone, George Mason University

See all Editorial Reviews

Product details

Hardcover: 360 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press (August 9, 2009)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0691136963
ISBN-13: 978-0691136967
Product Dimensions: 6.5 x 1.2 x 9.8 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 12 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,305,376 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #513 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Social Sciences > Demography
- #3369 in Books > Business & Money > Biography & History > Economic History
- #6340 in Books > Textbooks > Social Sciences > Sociology

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Well structured, clear and concise to an unfortunately rate degree.

March 15, 2014

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

The essential ideas are that particular factors cause societies to grow and prosper, then decline and finally to degenerate into internal bickering and even warfare. Eventually the disintegration ceases, and a new cycle begins. The stages of the cycle are: 1) expansion; 2) stagflation; 3) crisis and 4) Disintegration. During expansion the population grows and brings more land under cultivation – the authors examine mostly pre-industrial societies. Once the growing population’s needs exceed the productivity of the land, it has reached the second stage, wherein less land per capita slowly impoverishes the lower half of society. During stagflation, the elite continue to collect their rents and fees, so their lot does not worsen. In fact, because the lower strata of society are increasingly struggling, the labor pool expands, pushing wages down. During the stagflation phase, the elite increase in both number (often as a status reward in lieu of payments) and their per capita consumption. Impoverishment grows from the bottom strata up until it finally begins to digest the lower echelon of the elite, some of whom fall out of elite status. At this point we reach stage three – crisis. In this phase, economic pressures cause elite members to contend with each other; the rich use their influence to minimize taxes; and crime rises as the poor become desperate and the government, starved for funds, can no longer maintain order. This further reduces overall productivity. Finally, in the fourth stage disorder, disease, starvation and violence reduce population numbers in all strata of society. Eventually a strong leader arises and the population, now small enough to expand within available resources, begins the next cycle.

One of the aspects of this book that impresses me is the authors’ avoidance of doctrine. Unlike Toynbee or Spengler, they do not insist their cycle always proceeds in exact accord with a preformed structure. They acknowledge the influence of particular factors that make the cycles differ between countries and eras. Their arguments are convincing precisely because they acknowledge they are general principles and correlations, and that industrialization has changed the model in ways they have yet to consider.

However, I believe that can be done by considering farms and factories as different forms of resources for wealth production. Add in natural resources – water, minerals, energy, and the ecosystem’s ability to absorb pollution – and the implications of their model seems sensible and logical. For instance, factories are an employment resource for the lower half of society. As such, the factory has ‘shrunk’ – requires fewer employees to make the same number of widgets (even without outsourcing); but the corporation’s profit from the factory continues – for now. Another example: Oil becomes more difficult to procure and oil (and gasoline) prices rise. All resources can become over-exploited, and the Turchin / Nefedov model works well.

The one application of the model that is provocative is to the global economy: A few ‘elite’ countries (Western Europe, the U.S.) and the many less wealthy nations. The latter are holding the resources the former require; the former have the financial and military power. And perhaps this is one aspect that makes this book so interesting: Besides some great lessons of history, it changes the reader's world-view and provokes speculation on the future. Yay for gray matter!

7 people found this helpful

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Great work. Overall theories of history have very justifiably ...

October 11, 2016

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

Great work. Overall theories of history have very justifiably been criticized for forcing events into some theoretical mold. But this work is different. It is more empirically-based, and it has lots of nice detail on the societies.

It cuts off at the beginning of industrialization, something that disappointed me. But the dynamics of industrial societies may differ from the dynamics of preindustrial, agrarian ones, so the authors may have decided to work on something more manageable.

I note this because the French Revolution fits quite well into a disintegrative phase, and the book cuts off before it, while the Bourbons were still in their integrative phase. It looks like there were lots of professionals and other elite aspirants who did not enjoy being shoved into the Third Estate behind the clergy and the nobility. So the elites battled it out, with some elites appealing to the common people, another feature of disintegrative phases. That revolution even had a device that was convenient for reducing the elites' numbers: the guillotine.

Napoleon's conquests seem like a return to an integrative phase, however, with him returning to power after his initial defeat and exile. But he was defeated and exiled a second time, and his conquests were not permanent. France continued to have a lot of tumult after his death, only settling down late in the 19th cy.

2 people found this helpful

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An excellent take on history. Must read.

December 7, 2013

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

I agree with the other reviewers; it is a masterpiece, as are his other books (War and Peace and War, Historical Dynamics). Really an eye opener. I think it explains history better than either Collapse (Jared Diamond) or Collapse of Complex Societies (Tainter). I read this along with Dirt (Montgomery) recently; they go well together. I especially like the idea of applying the mathematics of ecology to humans, and to economics. I think the ecological models that have been developed were created with more scientific rigor and objectivity than what is typically the case in mainstream economics.

I won't write 1000 words explaining what it is all about; others have done this already. I suggest you just buy the book and read it. Absolutely worthwhile.

Spoiler: Basically history seems to have a long-term boom/bust cycle, and we seem to be in the stagflation phase of the cycle (near the top), as other reviewers have noted. The book will explain how this works and what the rest of the cycle looks like, based on several historical case studies.

2 people found this helpful

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P A DEWS THOMSON

Makes You Think about the Big Picture

September 12, 2013

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

Peter Turchin works on long-wave theories of history. This work refines his earlier views, and adds another layer of explanatory complexity to the basic theme. A great deal of it is devoted to illustrating how the theory played out across the centuries. From my wide, if non-specialist, reading, he has it mostly right, and all the detail gives the reader a solid sense of how the interplay of the various theoretical factors worked out in messy real life.

Definitely worth reading, and I'll be interested to see if it makes any impact more widely.- on related fields.

3 people found this helpful

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Innovative theory of history

December 26, 2010

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

An excellent exploration of long-term cycles in agricultural societies. Even if you disagree with, or don't care about, the thesis, there is plenty of fascinating information about the structures of various European societies, from ancient Rome through Romanov Russia.

The general thesis of this book is that agricultural societies strengthen and weaken in multi-century cycles based on a modestly complex interaction of the population dynamics of the peasantry and the elite. Turchin and Nefedov provide quite a lot of data to buttress their case. One consequence of their thesis is that "golden ages" for the elites of a society are lousy times to be a peasant, while good times for the peasantry are usually times of stability, but only modest prosperity, for the nobility/elite of a society.

7 people found this helpful

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