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Preventing Surprise Attacks: Intelligence Reform in the Wake of 9/11 (Hoover Studies in Politics, Economics, and Society) Hardcover – March 22, 2005

3.9 3.9 out of 5 stars 5 ratings
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The commission to investigate the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States issued its final report in July of 2004, in which it recommended a dramatic overhaul of the nation's intelligence system. Congress responded by hastily enacting the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004, which adopts many of the 9/11 commission's specific recommendations, though with a number of alterations. Richard A. Posner, in the first full-length study of the post-9/11 movement for intelligence reform, argues that the 9/11 commission's analysis, on which Congress relied, was superficial and its organizational proposals unsound. The commission, followed by Congress, exaggerated the benefits of centralizing control over intelligence; neglected the relevant scholarship dealing with surprise attacks, organization theory, the principles of intelligence, and the experience of foreign nations, some of which have a longer history of fighting terrorism than the United States; and as a result ignored the psychological, economic, historical, sociological, and comparative dimensions of the issue of intelligence reform.

Posner explains, however, that a ray of hope remains: the reorganization provisions of the new Act are so vague, as a result of intense politicking, that the actual shape of the reorganized system will depend critically on decisions made by the President in implementing the Act. In a searing critique, Posner exposes the pitfalls created by the new legislation, identifies the issues overlooked by the 9/11 commission and Congress, and suggests directions for real reform.

This book is published in cooperation with the Hoover Institution
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  1. Print length
    226 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
  4. Publication date
    March 22, 2005
  5. Dimensions
    6.38 x 0.69 x 9.28 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    074254947X
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0742549470
  8. See all details
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Top reviews from the United States

  • Carl Ford
    5.0 out of 5 stars Must Read for Understanding Surprise
    Reviewed in the United States on October 31, 2022
    Verified Purchase
    A classic on surprise attacks. He concludes that advance warning is unlikely because the need for tactical warning -- who, what, where, and especially when an event was go to occur.
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  • Zachary James
    5.0 out of 5 stars Preventing Surprise Attacks
    Reviewed in the United States on September 30, 2009
    Verified Purchase
    An excellent buy. Book was in good condition, and was shipped in a timely manner.
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  • Jay E. Hasselschwert
    5.0 out of 5 stars Essential for Understanding Intelligence Reform
    Reviewed in the United States on May 13, 2005
    Richard Posner's book will be of great interest to anyone concerned about the rapid changes now taking place in the US intelligence community. This book is a must for anyone who wants to understand the function and organization of intelligence. Posner's arguments are so clear and compelling that you will find yourself saying "Ah-ha!" after almost every chapter.

    Specifically, Posner takes on the "The 9/11 Commission Report," for offering an organizational solution for a managerial failure. He shows how the Commission's organizational line and block solution led to the enactment of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. He shows how this happened with little or no debate about the Commission's recommendations.

    Posner explains why surprise attacks happen, and how little the organization of an intelligence apparatus has to do with it. For example, the Arab nations surprised Israel in the Yom Kipur War. An Israel commission determined, after the fact, that the reason for the surprise was lack of decentralization in its intelligence services. The 9/11 Commission, on the other hand, determine the surprise of 9/11 was due to not enough centralization. The fact that there are divergent views on this matter is not surprising. What is surprising is that the 9/11 Commission failed to even investigate them.

    As Posner explains, surprise attacks happen, because the adversary does something that is essentially stupid and self-defeating. Often, the surprise attack is a miscalculation, not just for the attacked, but for the attacker as well. This makes anticipation of such attacks particularly challenging. As result, the Commission's hindsight was not 20/20, but altogether distorted by its focus on what had already happened, and not on the full range of possible future surprise attacks.

    The range of such attacks is nearly infinite. According to Posner, the desire of the Commission to create an "Intelligence Czar" will not enhance the US intelligence community's ability to foretell these events. It will have the opposite effect of limiting the scope of vision and the diversity of analysis that will make any accurate and timely prediction possible. An Intelligence Czar will be much more prone to political influence, and he will function well above the horizon of subtle surprise attack indicators. He will also be much more likely to spend his time focusing on the "threat de jure" instead of genuine threats.

    Posner, however, is not simply beating a dead horse here. While it is true that the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act has been signed into law, the ambiguity of that law still allows for a less destructive interpretation and execution of the law. Under the new law, the Director of National Intelligence may become the "Intelligence Czar," acting as the CEO of the intelligence community. Hopefully, however, he will take on a more constructive role - facilitator of greater coordination, acting as the chairman of the board of the intelligence community. This still remains an open debate.
    46 people found this helpful
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  • Diva
    5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on June 28, 2015
    Verified Purchase
    Very happy. Many thanks
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