The U.S. Intelligence System is designed to be capable of many things, but it has never been widely considered capable of producing strategic intelligence. Yet this is precisely the type of intelligence needed to support the formulation of a national security strategy for the 21st Century. Such a formulation is needed because the threat environment that the U.S. finds itself in has radically changed since the end of the Cold War.
"Seeing the Invisible", by Thomas Quiggin essentially offers a prescription for creating a strategic intelligence program within the U.S. Intelligence System. In the course of doing this, Quiggin provides a number of really useful concepts and methods, many based on the experiences of the city-state of Singapore. He very importantly draws the distinction between risk and threats, a distinction currently lost on the U.S. National Security Community. He also argues for creating a networked type of intelligence organization in sharp contrast to the current overly centralized, hierarchical organization of U.S. intelligence. He also raises the concept of `faint signal detection' to argue for the development of actual target expertise among intelligence analysts. Perhaps most significantly Quiggin draws heavily on the writings of Robert D. Steele, especially his seminal book, "On Intelligence", which is a brilliant argument for redesigning the U.S. Intelligence System. In one of his most interesting chapters, Quiggin explains the Singapore Risk Assessment and Horizon Event Scanning process. While Quiggin is quick to note that discrete events and occurrences are impossible to predict, he also argues that warning intelligence is still a valid and valuable operation. There is little doubt that this outstanding book provides a new direction that would enable the intelligence profession to cope with the challenges of the 21st Century. This reviewer would suggest that this book should be read in tandem with "On Intelligence" by Robert Steele (2001, Amazon.com). Together these two books show the way to real transformation of the U.S. Intelligence System.
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