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Overreach: How China Derailed Its Peaceful Rise Hardcover – October 18, 2022

by Susan L. Shirk (Author)
4.4 4.4 out of 5 stars 80 ratings
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Winner, The Lionel Gelber Prize
Silver Medal, Arthur Ross Book Award

For decades, China's rise to power was characterized by its reassurance that this rise would be peaceful. Then, as Susan L. Shirk, shows in this sobering, clear-eyed account of China today, something changed.

For three decades after Mao's death in 1976, China's leaders adopted a restrained approach to foreign policy. They determined that any threat to their power, and that of the Chinese Communist Party, came not from abroad but from within―a conclusion cemented by the 1989 Tiananmen crisis. To facilitate the country's inexorable economic ascendence, and to prevent a backlash, they reassured the outside world of China's peaceful intentions.

Then, as Susan Shirk shows in this illuminating, disturbing, and utterly persuasive new book, something changed. China went from fragile superpower to global heavyweight, threatening Taiwan as well as its neighbors in the South China Sea, tightening its grip on Hong Kong, and openly challenging the United States for preeminence not just economically and technologically but militarily. China began to overreach. Combining her decades of research and experience, Shirk, one of the world's most respected experts on Chinese politics, argues that we are now fully embroiled in a new cold war.

To explain what happened, Shirk pries open the "black box" of China's political system and looks at what derailed its peaceful rise. As she shows, the shift toward confrontation began in the mid-2000s under the mild-mannered Hu Jintao, first among equals in a collective leadership. As China's economy boomed, especially after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, Hu and the other leaders lost restraint, abetting aggression toward the outside world and unchecked domestic social control. When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he capitalized on widespread official corruption and open splits in the leadership to make the case for more concentrated power at the top. In the decade following, and to the present day―the eve of the 20th CCP Congress when he intends to claim a third term―he has accumulated greater power than any leader since Mao. Those who implement Xi's directives compete to outdo one another, provoking an even greater global backlash and stoking jingoism within China on a scale not seen since the Cultural Revolution.

Here is a devastatingly lucid portrait of China today. Shirk's extensive interviews and meticulous analysis reveal the dynamics driving overreach. To counter it, she argues, the worst mistake the rest of the world, and the United States in particular, can make is to overreact. Understanding the domestic roots of China's actions will enable us to avoid the mistakes that could lead to war.
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  1. Print length
    424 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Oxford University Press
  4. Publication date
    October 18, 2022
  5. Dimensions
    9.54 x 1.17 x 6.48 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0190068515
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0190068516
  8. See all details
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Top reviews from the United States

  • Bruno100
    5.0 out of 5 stars A must read for China Watchers!
    Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2025
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    The critical reviews and book awards are well deserved. It is a great book that delivers much historical information, and an important commentary of our current situation with this rising economic and military power.
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  • wsmrer
    4.0 out of 5 stars Enough!
    Reviewed in the United States on November 17, 2022
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    Here is a review based on finishing half of the text at page 209, but not expecting to change views on finishing the rest of Susan Shirk’s composition.

    First to offer a Preamble as background for the readers’ clarification, I hope:
    My field of study was Economics with a specialty in Comparative Economic Systems learning two Slavic languages and living for a period in the then Soviet Controlled Easter Europe so the nature of “Communism” was not an abstraction, but the gritty working of a particular functioning governmental System. Long retired, I have kept that interest but now living in and read about the People’s Republic of China as an expat (without the language ability).

    What attracted me to this author’s work is her placement at the University of California, San Diego, Research Professor; Chair, 21st Century China Center; being familiar with her colleague, Victor C. Shih whose work I admire as bringing the CCP’s functions and conflicts down to a comprehensible gritty level of detailing.
    Susan Shirk strong point is the ability to share that level of presentation.
    Where she fails, I believe, is to not rise above the prevailing ‘China Hawk’ take on China today.
    Examples:
    South China Sea, a hot topic raising tension with neighbors; but Obama's Pivot to Asia, and movement of the naval fleet and Marines that followed not mentioned as proceeding Xi’s desire to build defending islands (in response ?).
    XI’s establishment of high surveillance training centers following a Terrorists attack at a railroad station killing and injuring civilians while Xi nearby visiting Xinjiang; that following several more (2009-2014) that had done the same, killing hundreds in one case. *

    The certification of a NSL for Hong Kong as an ‘assault on Democracy’ rather than a promised, but long delayed commitment under the terms of return to China; its severity provoked by the breakdown of civil order in 2019-20 and extensive assaults by ‘black shirts’ on disagreeing Hongkongers and their living and business establishments. **
    Shirk treatment in all cases OVEREACH – but actions have causes more complex that her reading of Xi’s character, and as she allows, some Overreach at the end of the Hu Jintao’s period.

    ‘Overreach’ a well written research offering – “Objectivity” missing when requiring more thought of the battles of leadership in a turbulent world: and China closer to many other nations than she allows; Vietnam an example. ***
    4 Stars
    * Singapore’s diplomat, Kishore Mahbubani in his Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, notes on that violence: China has a War on Terror problem’ as some label it. (p. 280.).
    As does Joseph Hope, “Returning Uighur Fighters and China’s National Security Dilemma,” China Brief, vol. 18, issue 13 (25 July 2018).
    ** See THE GATE TO CHINA: A New History of the People’s Republic & Hong Kong, by Michael Sheridan (2021).
    ***Addendum:
    Text completed: Her reading of Xi as an ideologically driven autocrat shared by many other authors, as is the judgment of that detracting from China’s hoped for leadership in world events. This has more insight into how China functions today than commonly found in other analyst’s presentations.
    But publishing before the recent G-20 meeting she would need to rewrite many of her concluding comments; with a smiling Xi a popular addendum to various statesmen’s E.U. parties; Biden/Xi agreeing their representatives in frequent personal communication come 2023.

    Susan L. Shirk’s next inquiry’s is buried in the nature of this one: Where are the world’s various systems of organization headed – drawing together or flinging apart? Democracy or Authoritarian not the question; Sustainability is as serious threats go untended.
    18 people found this helpful
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  • Paskorn Siriyaphan
    5.0 out of 5 stars Timely and insightful !!!
    Reviewed in the United States on March 29, 2023
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    I think this is one of the best books on China which provides most recent information and insightful recommendations on US - China relations.
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  • TK
    5.0 out of 5 stars Will China be able to restrain itself?
    Reviewed in the United States on November 16, 2022
    According to the author, China begins overreaching itself when it has abandoned strategic prudence and restraint in the realms of economy, social control and foreign policy. Unfortunately, its aggressive posture in world affairs and its relentlessly tight grip on domestic society lead to a fearful return of the politics of containment from the West.

    Ever since Mao’s time, China has swung between two patterns of rule: personalistic dictatorship and collective leadership. However, collective leadership or personalistic dictatorship can lead to overreach, even though the dynamic that causes it is very different when authority is shared by a group of leaders than when it is concentrated in the hands of one leader. No matter which pattern of rule is chosen, ‘three lessons from Tiananmen Square and the collapse of Soviet communism are embroidered across the psyches of China’s leaders like a sampler: prevent large-scale social unrest; avoid splits in the leadership; and keep the military on the side of the Party.’ (P.20)

    Theoretically, when officials make decisions by consensus in a collective leadership, their ability to check one another should produce restraint, or even inertia, not overreach. Yet collective leadership didn’t operate that way under Hu. Under Hu, China was a collection of leaders, not a collective leadership. The oligarchs around Hu functioned as an alliance of parochial interests instead of a unified executive looking after the long-term interests of the nation or the Party as a whole. Each interest group gets what it most wants and the costs, both financial costs such as state taxes and international costs imposed by foreign countries, are diffused. In the end, the diffusion of power at the top ended up allowing bureaucratic interest groups to drive foreign and domestic policy toward self-defeating overreach. In avoidance of open leadership split, Hu was unable to do anything about it. Therefore, the perverse consequences of collective rule especially, the uninhibited corruption that flourished under it became a strong argument for Hu’s successor, Xi Jinping’s restoration of personalistic leadership. Xi has modeled his leadership style on Mao’s, from centralized decision-making to personality cult, stress on ideological purity, and reliance on a small circle of advisers.

    Regime security in china is likely to be threatened by either splits in the top leadership or the rise of an individual like Mao who has overconcentrated his power without effective control. After all, China will need to find mechanisms to restrain itself before overreaction from the West could pull both sides into a war.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • Henry Lee
    4.0 out of 5 stars Your guide to China's Issue today
    Reviewed in the United States on September 3, 2023
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    Pro: A very comprehensive guide to the issues that we see today in China
    Con: A lot of repetitiveness!!! Almost 1/4 of the book is a recycle version of other chapters from the book...
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  • Luke Liem
    2.0 out of 5 stars Factual but with Significant Biases
    Reviewed in the United States on April 25, 2023
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    Susan Shirk is a respected professor at UCSD with an enviable past career in the US State Department during the Clinton administration. But her most recent work, while filled with lots of useful facts about the Chinese government and the Party, showcased significant bias in the way they are presented. One would think she wrote this book in order to get back into the State Department.

    Overall she presented China to be the only party in the wrong, that somehow the USA has no ill intention, and that the Thucydides Trap does not exist. Reading this book as a Chinese American, I am frankly insulted by the way she presented the facts in such a biased and non-academic way.

    I would however still recommend reading the book to extract some of the useful facts necessary to understand the Chinese government, but I would caution the readers against adopting her attitudes and her line of reasonings, since they do not serve to extract China and the USA from the Thucydides Trap.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • Sylvain Camus
    5.0 out of 5 stars La direction du Parti Communiste Chinois après Mao Zedong: Et qu'en est-il aujourd'hui?
    Reviewed in Canada on December 2, 2022
    Verified Purchase
    Excellent ouvrage. Bien documenté. Approche compréhensive montrant l'évolution des styles de leadership, à la suite de Mao, d'une approche collective promue par Deng Xiaoping à la dictature d'une seule personne avec Xi Jinping. Ce faisant, la direction politique communiste a fait de l' 'overreach' (du débordement) qui a suscité la méfiance des pays voisins ou partenaires ainsi que des pays de l'Ouest, mettant ainsi fin à l'évolution pacifique de l'intégration économique de la Chine au système économique occidental.
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  • Adrian J. Smith
    5.0 out of 5 stars The definite account of how China lost its way
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 29, 2023
    Verified Purchase
    An excellent account of a phenomena I have been observing since 2009, but has reached a crescendo of sorts in recent years. The book confirms what I myself have been saying, that China's backsliding into more authoritarian control methods, and more aggressive nationalist posturing globally began under the Collective Leadership of the previous Hu Jintao Administration, rather than the Personalistic Xi Regime.
    The key take home points are that the highly illiberal nature of the Control Coalition (Propaganda Department, People's Armed Police, PLA and MSS) seized upon unrest in 2008 and 2009 to expand state power and curtail personal freedoms and the bandwagoning nature of Chinese politics enabled Xi Jinping to amass greater personal power that was afforded to either Hu, Jiang or Deng.
    The book contains some decent policy prescriptions that policy makers would do well to read, as the US has itself also overreached in its response to China, and a more balanced approach can be carved out.
    A more worrying take home point is that Xi is unlikely to relinquish power unless deposed in a Coup or his health fails, so it is up to more cooler heads in the US to accommodate themselves to a more pragmatic and realistic China policy, as opposed to the overreactive measures under Trump, and their half hearted continuation under Biden.
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  • Piotr Piwonski
    5.0 out of 5 stars Informative and very well written
    Reviewed in Japan on February 21, 2024
    Verified Purchase
    The book is both quite informative and detailed. What is even better is that is it very well written. I did not find it monotonous even though the book is long.
    If you are interested in the topic, you simply can't miss this book.
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  • Wojciech Poplawski
    4.0 out of 5 stars Danger of PRC
    Reviewed in Australia on January 19, 2023
    Verified Purchase
    The book seems to be well documented. In my opinion it should be essential reading for people who never experienced life under communist rule. It not easy to read, because topic is depressing. We must however realize that PRC is an existential threat to all democratic societies. I lived under communists regime for more than 30 years.
    Dr Wojciech Poplawski PEng. (ret.)
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  • barney
    5.0 out of 5 stars Getting inside the psyche of the CCB
    Reviewed in Canada on May 14, 2023
    Verified Purchase
    For anyone wanting to understand what is going on inside the political landscape of China today, this is a must read.Well documented and researched with strong insights into the machinations of the CCP drawing upon historical analysis, this book deserves serious reflection.
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