More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws, Third Edition (Studies in Law and Economics) Third Edition

First, some background about me: I am a Ph.D.-holder and tenured professor whose immersion in the insular politics of academia had led me to harbor many negative perceptions about firearms. Though I was never staunchly "anti-gun," I was not a gun owner, did not understand the appeal of firearms, and generally believed that gun control legislation was only common sense. That changed four years ago when I (finally) decided to look into the data on guns, crime, and public safety for myself. I am a trained researcher, but I conducted my research for personal not professional reasons. My wife was pregnant and I wanted hard facts--not talking point from the political parties--so I could make an informed decision about what to teach my children about firearms, and whether it would be prudent or dangerous to have one in our house.

I was drawn into that research almost immediately by the sheer force of my own disbelief. I discovered fact after fact that starkly disproved the claims and "facts" so many teachers and colleagues had expressed about firearms and their relationship to violence, and which, during my long trip through academia, had led me to believe stricter gun control was just plain common sense. For two years, I read thousands of pages of information, starting with raw data from the FBI and CDC so that I would be better able to assess the claims I subsequently read in books, peer-reviewed journals, news publications, blogs, and so forth. In the course of that research, I came across numerous references to John Lott's studies, but so many of them suggested there were "fatal flaws" in his methodology (and questions about his motives) that I never bothered to read him. I simply assumed based on the sheer number of such comments that his work was indeed more propaganda than serious study. Nonetheless, I turned up enough information over the course of two years to completely change my view about guns. I now believe wholeheartedly in the right to carry, the wisdom of the 2nd Amendment, the particularly important benefits of concealed carry for women, and the notion that more firearms in law-abiding hands does make society demonstrably safer.

Now that I have finally read John Lott's "More Guns, Less Crime" (3rd edition, 2010), I am ashamed that I did not consult it earlier instead of accepting at face value the facile criticisms of his work. Lott's research and claims are astonishingly thorough--meticulously explained and documented. At every turn, he (accurately and clearly) explains the challenges, assumptions, and variables that inform his findings. Often, just to cover his bases, he runs the data with, and then without, certain questionable variables (arrest rates, county sizes, etc.). Again and again, he shows that with only slight variations in the magnitude of the results, more concealed carry permits equals less violent crime (murder, rape, aggravated assault, and robberies involving direct contact with the victim, such as muggings). He also observes that those permits may contribute to a smaller "substitution effect" that displaces criminal activity into less-confrontational forms, such as property theft. On all counts, this constitutes powerful evidence that the likely presence of a defensive firearm has a statistically significant deterrence effect on criminal behavior. More concealed carry permits lead to a net decline in assaults and deaths, and a net decline in the financial costs to society. Moreover, these benefits apply to all citizens--not just those who are armed--and they increase over time, as the number of carry permits rises. They also have the greatest positive impact on African Americans and women.

Why should you take Lott's study seriously? Because it is the most comprehensive study of crime--let alone firearms--ever conducted. In retrospect, I am stunned that any commentator has dared to fault the quality of his data. If anything can be said for Lott, it is that he is meticulous in recognizing and accounting for the variables at stake. Indeed, like a responsible analyst testing a hypothesis with appropriate rigor, he tends to control in ways that actually minimize (i.e., underestimate, and perhaps even artificially suppress) the benefits of non-discretionary ("shall issue") concealed carry laws. His is the only gun control study I've seen that takes all counties into consideration (not some selective sample) and then meticulously controls for population density, arrest rates, rising/falling trends in crime prior to the passing of the carry laws, demographic factors, the number of permits issued, and so forth. Although his expansive, county-level approach is clearly the most precise way to analyze the impact of carry laws, he also consistently re-runs the regressions using state-level (aggregate) data to show that, while the precise results vary, the trends remain the same: more guns, less crime. Indeed, the scope and depth of his study is so far beyond any other peer-reviewed study of guns I've ever encountered that any blanket dismissal either of his findings or his methodology is manifestly disingenuous.

Of course, given the amount of criticism his work has received, Lott is (rightly) concerned to defend his integrity as a scholar. His seventh chapter thus quotes a series of 23 direct criticisms by other academics--each of which he capably rebuts. Whenever possible, Lott first politely plays devil's advocate: re-running his regressions in the alternative manner some critics have suggested, only to show that the results consistently yield the same conclusion: more guns, less crime. He also exposes some critics' blatant ignorance of certain statistical categories (such as what it means for victims to "know" their shooters) and then lays bare salient points or critical factors those critics ignore. One devastating effect of these clear, well-reasoned rebuttals is to expose the patently un-scientific anti-gun bias that drives most critical "concerns" about Lott's study. Yet Lott never dispenses with civility or stoops to base political jabs. A few times, he briefly speculates on the kinds of credible concerns that could be raised about his work--politely leaving it for the reader to note, in unflattering contrast, that the criticisms that have actually been leveled at him fall very short of that standard. Ever the responsible scholar, he chiefly defends his integrity by clarifying his robust methodology and letting the data speak for itself.

I can't say enough about the importance of this book. Do not trust the claim that Lott's work has been "discredited", "fatally flawed," or "funded by the gun lobby." Lott explicitly refutes those attacks in this book, and I have verified to my own satisfaction that those are indeed false claims designed to deflect attention away from his compelling pro-gun findings. Read this book for yourself. It matches the findings of my own personal two-year study into these issues, though I might have saved myself a lot of time and work by consulting Lott's book sooner. He explains the variables and various analytical concepts very clearly (the substitution effect, the endogeneity problem, the perils of looking only at raw measures instead of slopes/trends over time, etc.). This diligent effort to empower (non-expert) readers by allowing them to understand what is at stake in the measures before delving into the data is one clear sign that his intention is to inform readers truthfully, not manipulate their political views. His habit of checking, re-checking, and checking his regressions again--verifying how the results change as certain variables are included or excluded--is another good sign. And yet another is the modest and precise way he reports his results: never engaging in bombastic or exaggerated claims, but always frankly acknowledging the limits of what can be reasonably concluded from the data. By the end of the book, you will understand many of the flawed assumptions and misunderstandings which underlie the oft-cited "evidence" that stricter gun control enhances public safety.

If you're anti-gun and Lott's book does not give you pause and force you to reconsider the potential benefits of an armed society, you either did not read the book with an open mind, or you do not know how to distinguish a precisely-reasoned argument from a merely political one.

Well done Mr. Lott. I cannot fathom the amount of energy and intellectual rigor you must have invested in this massive project, but I am grateful to you for this impressive and substantial contribution to knowledge.

I am not a researcher (though I am a board-certified forensic expert), but I have used the modeling/analysis tools that John Lott has employed in his research.

What I find in reading this book is a scholarly, measured examination of the statistics of the relationship between gun ownership and non-discriminatory ("shall issue") concealed carry permit laws.

Even more than that, I find his manner of expression to be most reassuring. He is not making a point or promoting a political position. He is simply OBSERVING what is.

This reminds me of a situation some years ago working on a project for a State of California government department. I am, by the way, a former Federal, State and Local civil servant. An issue came up regarding what State agency - if any - had jurisdiction over the construction work of the project. In particular, what agency was responsible for reviewing construction plans and issuing a construction permit. Stay with me here....................., and you'll see where this is going.

So, being the project engineer (you knew that, right?) I approached the State agency that the Department building the project stated had jurisdiction. When I reported what that agency stated - in writing - that they did not have jurisdiction, the Department employee stated that I was stating my "opinion" about the matter. This is willfully confounding opion with observation. I was simply reporting what I had observed, and provided the source documentation. Yet, the civil servant I was dealing with insisted on declaring this observation an "opinion" since he did not like the factual information that was presented to them.

John Lott faces a similar situation - in that folks who disagree with his OBSERVATIONS want to declare them OPINIONS.

John Lott expresses himself very precisely as a researcher. He analyzes the data, and does so very, very carefully, and then announces what THE DATA REVEALS. He does this time, and time again throughout the book. He even observes when the data points to a conclusion that is different than his original hypothesis. That's called intellectual honesty.

The problem that we have in our society today is that many folks are so entrenched in their (apparently) mindless attachment to political positions, that they are apparently incapable of actual rational thinking.

As near as I can tell, the anti-gun lobby falls into this category, and continues to believe that the way to solve crime involving guns, is to take guns away from law-abiding citizens - ignoring the FACT that criminals don't obey the law, and never will. They also don't seem to realize that if they can take away others' constitutional rights, under different circumstances, THEIR constitutional rights could be taken away.

I am a staunch 2nd Amendment supporter, and it gives me great satisfaction to find a scholar that has taken the (huge amount of) time to examine the facts relating to gun ownership and crime.

The best, and most comprehensive look, at the relationship between the change in crime rates and the implementation of concealed carry laws. It is an exhaustive, and very serious, review of statistical crime data from the last two-three decades, with comprehensive conclusions that consider a wide range of influencing factors. Whether you are pro-gun or anti-gun, this book is an eye opener of hard data, professionally and carefully presented in an unbiased manner. A must-read by anyone who takes up the debate of crime and gun ownership.

John Lott has done his homework. I find this to be a sensational source book for the statistics on gun crime and ownership. Lott has dispelled the myth that gun owners are a plague and he has destroyed the Leftist idea that we need less guns. Although the data here is sometimes a bit tedious, that's just the point: it is there in full chapter after chapter. It is impossible to contradict the clear evidence given here.

I can't believe how long it took me to get around to reading Dr. Lott's signature work, More Guns Less Crime. While some of Dr. Lott's "economist jargon" can be over the head of the average reader, he does an excellent job of outlining his conclusions. He also includes multiple graphs and charts that further illustrate his results.

While Dr. Lott has his share of critics, most of these criticisms are politically motivated. All on has to do is look at violent crimes figures posted annually by the Federal Government to see that they correspond with much of what Dr. Lott writes in More Guns Less Crime. Simply put, this book is a must read for anyone interested in how concealed firearms laws affect violent crime rates. I plan to use this book as a reference for a long time to come.