Argues that the post-Cold War world will see the United States and Japan emerge as opponents, traces Japan's increasing power, and contends the United States holds the trump cards in the economic contest.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

This disturbing book offers an original, penetrating analysis of the future of U.S.-Japanese relations. The authors argue that with the collapse of the Cold War and with the Soviet Union in disarray, the U.S. will no longer endure Japan's economic encroachments. Japan, meanwhile, in order to ensure the influx of raw materials and to secure an export market it can dominate politically, will solidify its trading bloc in Southwest Asia and the Indian Ocean, while challenging U.S. hegemony in the Pacific Basin. As the U.S. converts its global military supremacy into economic leverage, America and a rearmed Japan will be set on a collision course; the rivalry between them could well spill over into a "hot war," the authors maintain. Friedman, a political science professor at Dickinson College in Pennsylvania, and freelance writer LeBard sometimes overstate their thesis, yet their scenario is plausible and is buttressed by an appraisal of the two nations' conflicting imperial ambitions from the 1890s to the present.
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

From Library Journal

Friedman and Lebard remind us at the beginning of their book that this century has already produced unlikely turns of events. Who in 1960 could have predicted that America 20 years later would be in retreat, defeated by the Vietnamese and reeling before the Iranians? If war with Japan seems impossible, the authors nevertheless deliver on their book's title with an alarming and usually plausible scenario that takes Japan and the United States on a downward spiral from trade friction to protectionism to armed showdown over markets and raw materials. Friedman and Lebard do not shrink from categorical assertions in the future tense--words like "inevitably" and "inexorably" dot the landscape as the pair chart the course of everything from savings rates to hypersonic aircraft. This is a lively, wide-ranging, up-to-date, and data-dense study. Even those who quarrel with the conclusion will find it stimulating. Highly recommended to specialists and general readers alike.
-John Boyle, California State Univ., Chico
Copyright 1991 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

Paperback: 429 pages
Publisher: St Martins Pr; Reprint edition (March 1, 1992)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0312076770
ISBN-13: 978-0312076771
Product Dimensions: 6.2 x 1.2 x 9.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Customer Reviews: 15 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,251,269 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #6039 in National & International Security (Books)

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Amazon Customer

Wrong Prediction, but Fascinating Read

December 10, 2016

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

Although his prediction is laughable now, it is still a fascinating read. It provides an interesting view into how some viewed Japan during the time it was written. It follows the dictum of Lord Palmerston, "A country's allies are not eternal, only its national interests."

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Topcat

Five Stars

February 22, 2015

Format: HardcoverVerified Purchase

Excellent quality, price and service. Highly recommended.

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Spencer Thayer

Hilariously poorly thought out.

February 16, 2019

Format: Paperback

This book is so steeped in reactionary nationalist indoctrination that the author is completely unable to provide a coherent and rational analysis. This is garbage of the highest order. And yet George Friedman is still a respected author. Absurd.

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H KATER

A very important book about Japan

October 3, 2018

Format: Hardcover

One of the greatest geopolitical studies of a nation available to the public. The data and analysis is first class, even if the conclusions drawn are wrong. The geopolitical factors of a nation do not change. They are like a deck of cards they have to play with. But modern Japan is not the same as the country that existed before. This book is akin to identifying that a man has a broken leg. What he does with this situation is where the book goes wrong. But when Japan does what it does, it will be for the reasons outlined in this book.

This book will become more important as modern Japan develops. Because the analysis in this book will have created them, but not for the reasons people think, or the author. I wouldn't be surprised if this book is on military reading lists in the US and Japan. It should be. The data in this book is correct and will shape Japan's future.

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R. Jensen

It's REALLY hard to predict the future

January 7, 2014

Format: Hardcover

I'm sure the author had good reasons in 1991 to write this, and he's a really smart guy.
But, here we are, 23 years later, and Japan wouldn't even make the list of the top 30 nations in the world the US would go to war with.

This goes to show that predicting the future is near impossible. There are too many moving parts.

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Curmudgeon

Interesting at the time, but in retrospect totally off base.

July 3, 2007

Format: Paperback

The Friedmans have a view of world power returning to the multipolar world status it was before 1914. In their view, the old reasons for the USA and Japan to be allies had ended as of 1991, and economic frictions would lead to conflict between the two countries.

But in retrospect, they were very, very wrong. In fact, the USA and Japan probably have more reasons to be economic, political and even military allies in an increasingly dangerous world than ever before.

1. While the Friedmans thought Red China would come apart ("The same forces that destroyed European communism are present in China, suppressed at Tiananmen Square"), and that the resulting "refragmentation of China" would lead to Japanese vs. American intrigue in China, that hasn't happened!

Red China, while it calls itself communist, has in many ways reinvented or rediscovered fascism, with private corporations subject to tight state political control. And it is far from politically breaking up. Indeed, quite the contrary, an increasingly militarized and aggressive Red China, now with a blue water navy, will draw Japan and the USA closer together even more than the Soviet threat did.

2. The need to contain and perhaps reform the Muslim menace, and the need to secure oil and other resources, will again give Japan and the USA far more reasons to cooperate than to compete against each other. Already Japan has been quite cooperative with US military intervention in Iraq, in rather stark contrast to US "allies" like France.

3. Lastly, the Friedmans completely missed the demographic factor. For a nation to be willing to become more belligerent, especially against a nation as powerful as the USA, it had better have a large enough pool of angry young people, particularly men, willing to fight. Japan has one of the world's lowest birthrates, with 1.2 per woman as opposed to 2.1 per woman in the USA, and Japan has one of the lowest proportions of people under 30 of any nation on earth. Even with a society as into robotic technologies as Japan is, that's a serious and fatal flaw in the Friedmans' analysis.

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Johnnie B.

Wonderful Analysis but Strange Conclusion

December 16, 2004

Format: Hardcover

Heres an interesting book that has been somewhat discredited over time. Still, the analysis is excellent and worth considering.

The basic theme is that Japan and the United States could become opponents again with the end of the Cold War. The titanic battle against communism required Japan and the United States to come to an understanding. Basically, Japan was to manufacture goods, allow the US basing privileges and provide some defensive capability by patrolling the airspace and ocean immediately surrounding Japan. In return, the Unites States would guarantee Japan access to natural resources and provide for Japan's military defense. With the Cold War over, this arrangement has become economically unsound for the US to continue. A new political arrangement must be developed.

The authors show how Japan must have access to material resources from Asia and the Middle East to continue as a strong nation. They also reveal that Japan could probably aquire this access on its own through new alliances (especially with India) and by rebuilding its military. This would put Japan in conflict with the US since America needs control of the Western Pacific to feel stable.

The analysis leading up to the conclusion is inspiring. Friedman and Lebard boil down Japanese and US strategic interests and show how these needs are (or could be) met. They also show us how Japan could quickly rebuild its military forces.

As a prior post reveals, the conclusion is less than stellar in some aspects. They think Japan should ally itself with North Korea. Fat chance of that even before the Kim Dynasty started lobbing nuke capable missiles in Japan's direction! Another point that seems strange is the idea they put forward of placing a US armored division in South Korea. Why? The terrain just isnt right for large tank units.

The conflict the authors envision has not occurred for many reasons. As I noted above, they didnt factor in North Korea very well. Also, they didnt forsee Tokyo's economic bust. Even so, you can see some of the elements they discussed in motion today. A good example is the growing pressure in Japan to remove the Marines from Okinawa. This wouldnt have happened during the Cold War.

The authors missed some critical points in their analysis. Still, they did seem to capture many of the post-Cold War pressures we see today in Northeast Asia.

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