Futurist and CEO of Stratfor, a private intelligence firm, George Friedman looks out over the new century to discern the long term trends which will shape events for years to come. While it's unlikely most of us will be around to judge the accuracy of Friedman's predictions they make for interesting reading and sometimes surprising twists on current expectations. Noting that history in the U.S. seems to proceed in 20 year and 50 year cycles, Friedman tells us that, far from being in decline, the U.S. is really just coming into its own and will likely grow in power and global dominance over the next 100 years. In fact, he suggests the constant American concern about its own decline is really symptomatic of a still uncertain adolescent rather than a more mature nation. Because America is still in its awkward but maturing stage, we cannot help but blunder about, notes Friedman, but we are big enough and robust enough to make lots of mistakes without hurting our interests in any serious way.
Still, he suggests, other nations and peoples will not be able to help but dislike, and align themselves against, us anymore than we can help acting in our own interests.
Beginning with the trend of globalization he argues that, as the world modernizes, the incentive to procreate will continue to diminish resulting in a significant downturn in world populations. In urban societies, larger numbers of children, he reminds us, are a burden on their parents, not a boon. Given this he suggests that:
1) Global Warming, though in his view real and manmade (as claimed by its proponents), will start to ease because demand will drop of its own accord; and
2) The energy crisis will diminish because of the demand drop as well.
As populations trend downward, population replenishment will become the major problem for nation states in this century. Western European nations (England, France, Germany, etc.) are already in advanced decline, he argues, their culture one of cynicism and relativism. The population of these nations will continue to be disproportionately older, as well, as they experience a more rapid population drop-off than in many other parts of the world, including North America. Their economies will be correspondingly less robust, he argues, too.
Regarding current events, he suggests that the American war with the Jihadists already looks to be over. America, he says, has won because America is in a position of global dominance and so doesn't need to defeat its enemies. It must only keep them off balance. Russia, he adds, though now in the throes of a revanchist resurgence under Putin will not be able to sustain this because of its radical population decline and lack of new inflows of people. He believes a revived Russian Empire will reclaim its "near abroad" in the short term but will self-destruct some time in the 2020's because of demographic problems, leaving a vacuum that, he predicts, will be filled by an eastern bloc in Europe led by Poland (the largest and most energetic of the eastern European states), and by Turkey, a nation well-positioned to dominate southern Russia and its environs, along with the eastern Mediterranean and much of the Near East.
In the far east he thinks China will self-destruct shortly after Russia because the Chinese system is sitting on a population that is much poorer than it looks with greater wealth disparities. He believes that the inherent weaknesses this represents will lead to a break down in the current Communist regime's ability to exert central control over the bulk of Chinese territory and that the regions on the coast will follow their own economic interest, leading them to work with other nations, like Japan, to the detriment of the central Chinese authority. The relative isolation of China (landlocked on three sides with border regions that are difficult to occupy or traverse -- from the Himalayas to the Gobi desert and from Siberia to the jungles of Southeast Asia) works against China exerting much influence beyond its borders in these directions while the eastern coastal regions, following their own self-interest, will break away, either in fact or de jure, ulitmately weakening the Chinese polity.
On the other hand, he thinks Japan will see a resurgence, thanks to Japanese education and industry and its traditional access to areas beyond its borders via the sea. But, because Japan suffers the same demographic problems as other top tier urbanized states, while having a strong disinclination to permit non-Japanese to enter its homeland and dilute the native culture, it will turn outward and aim to dominate a fragmented China in the western Pacific region, seeking both resources and population to fuel its manufacturing engine. Thus Japan will again look for empire at China's expense as it has done in the past.
Friedman thinks the U.S. is best positioned geographically for continued global dominance because it controls North America which sits astride the two major oceans and because the U.S. system continues to attract new immigrants, thereby enabling it to continue to grow (or at least shrink less), while other major modern states are feeling deeper population losses. But, because of the U.S. global role, it will continue to have a vested interest in ensuring that no other state arises to challenge its dominance. (This is not a function of explicit American planning but of national dynamics, i.e., any state in this position, he says, would act in roughly the same way out of national self-interest). Thus the U.S. need not win all its conflicts on Friedman's view. It only has to make sure no one else manages to win theirs in certain critical theaters so that potential challengers never achieve enough stability to threaten U.S. dominance.
But other nations, driven by these same kinds of concerns will not be able to keep from challenging the U.S. Thus Japan and Turkey will gradually find themselves in a position, he argues, that puts them at odds with the U.S. (about mid-century). By that point Friedman predicts the U.S. will have shifted its military focus to control of the orbital areas around Earth and to reliance on manned, fixed spy and missile launching satellites, with pinpoint targeting capabilities. There will also be occupation of the moon for research and military applications. Control of these area will become paramount to American power. He assumes other nations will also go into space and operate on the moon, too.
As the U.S. moves to prevent Japan and Turkey from achieving irreversible hegemony in their regions, these two powers will see it as in their interest to act against the U.S. and initiate a pre-emptive strike some time around 2050 against the U.S., beginning with an attack on American spy and missile launching satellites. He thinks the attack will likely succeed, at least initially, but that the U.S.'s geographic and resource advantages, combined with an alliance with the Polish bloc, that will by then be at odds with the growing Turkish power, will eventually lead to a reversal of fortunes, the U.S. and Poland defeating Turkey and Japan, just as the U.S., Britain and the U.S.S.R. defeated the Axis powers (Germany, Italy and Japan) in World War II.
In the course of this war, he predicts the U.S. military will make huge technological strides in space, accelerated by wartime demands. This will result in the replacement of carbon fuels, including oil, with solar power collected in space and beamed to Earth in the war's aftermath, giving the U.S. dominance in energy supplies, too.
But the opening up of U.S. immigration floodgates that will have occurred in the earlier part of the century and which will have been the source of much of America's continued strength and growth throughout the century will also contain the seeds of America's future problems as Mexicans emigrate into, and remain in, the American Southwest without fully giving up their cultural and national affiliations. The American Southwest, of course, was once part of Mexico and was wrested away by the U.S. via the Texas rebellion and the later Mexican War. The new substantial Hispanic population in this part of the U.S., Friedman predicts, will result in yet another war with a stronger and more economically robust Mexico by the end of the century, a war whose outcome will determine which country, the U.S. or Mexico, will control North America and thus claim global dominance for the following century.
Intriguingly, he sees little likelihood of a resurgent Islam restoring the medieval Islamic caliphate that once dominated the world, citing too much factionalism and geographic fragmentation in the Muslim world. Yet he takes no account of the fact that once before, in the eighth and ninth centuries AD, Islam DID in fact achieve such unification without benefit of geographical or even demographic advantages.
Aside from his overly easy dismissal of Islam's potential to alter the global picture, this was a fascinating and perceptive analysis of current and likely future trends based on historical precedent, human and national natures and the physical facts underlying the distribution and interaction of nations and peoples. An important book, even if only some of its predictions hold up, it's just too bad most of us are going to miss the end of the show!
Stuart W. Mirsky
author of the historical novel The King of Vinland's Saga
and A Raft on the River, the true story of one fifteen year old girl's survival in Nazi occupied Poland during World War II
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Terrific book
Awesome content. Great quality work. If you are interested in geopolitics you should get this.
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Marc Schdfer
Interessantes aber einseitiges Buch
Reviewed in Germany on December 9, 2022schultzrik
Excellent, insightful read that persuades one to look beyond
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on August 2, 2017
