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Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

by Matthew R. Simmons (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 170 ratings
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Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
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  1. ISBN-10
    0471790184
  2. ISBN-13
    978-0471790181
  3. Publisher
    Wiley
  4. Publication date
    June 5, 2006
  5. Language
    English
  6. Dimensions
    6 x 1.22 x 9.07 inches
  7. Print length
    464 pages
  8. See all details
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4.3 out of 5 stars
170 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book informative and well-researched. They describe it as a worthwhile read with interesting details and facts about the Saudis. Readers appreciate the author's writing style, which is easy to read and refreshing. Overall, they consider it a must-read for everyone worldwide.

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KnowledgeReadabilityWriting style
24 customers mention "Knowledge"24 positive0 negative

Customers find the book informative and well-researched. They appreciate the detailed information and facts about the Saudis and Gulf States. The author does an excellent job explaining complex concepts to lay readers. While dated, it's still a great read for students of the oil industry and anyone interested in gulf state affairs.

"...2. Having such a data-driven body of knowledge means that the discussions surrounding peak oil, environmentalism, conservation, and geopolitics..." Read more

"...for the layman to understand the history, context and structure of the Saudi oil industry (his technical notes on oil production are welcoming too)...." Read more

"...Mr Simmons has done an incredible job of explaining these concepts to the layman...." Read more

"...And he does not vary from that excellent style in this book. It is full of facts and he also takes a little time up front to put Saudi oil into an..." Read more

22 customers mention "Readability"22 positive0 negative

Customers find the book easy to read and informative. They say it's a worthwhile read, comprehensive, and reasonably current review of the mid-east oil resource. The book is described as fun, interesting, and highly recommended for investors who want to understand the difficulties of the region.

"Let me cut to the chase and say that this book is simply outstanding. Why? 1...." Read more

"Mr Matt Simmons has written a superb book...." Read more

"...how things work, this book will clearly be one of the most interesting books you'll read...." Read more

"...Very interesting reading that should have been published as an extended white paper...." Read more

3 customers mention "Writing style"3 positive0 negative

Customers appreciate the author's writing style. They find it easy to read and refreshing, making the book hard to put down.

"...His honesty and candidness is so refreshing that the book is hard to put down...." Read more

"...His thorough approach is impressive and his writing style makes for easy reading of sobering topic...." Read more

"Well written, well researched..." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

  • Carlos N. Velez
    5.0 out of 5 stars Outstanding
    Reviewed in the United States on October 14, 2006
    Verified Purchase
    Let me cut to the chase and say that this book is simply outstanding. Why?

    1. Rarely does one see a topic so thoroughly researched by someone who is already an expert in the field. Simmons had already spent the bulk of his career in the energy business. He decided to conduct extensive, quality research to shape his hypotheses and conclusions. Any student of research methods would benefit from understanding how this book was crafted.

    2. Having such a data-driven body of knowledge means that the discussions surrounding peak oil, environmentalism, conservation, and geopolitics (perhaps the term should be geopetroleopolitics?) can be based on some semblance of fact, not rhetoric. Saudi oil fields are declining. This is a fact. We don not have good data to project when these declines will become irreversible. This is also a fact. How we react to these facts as individuals, as a nation, and as a planet, is vitally important. Simmons has crafted the foundations upon which these discussions can be conducted.

    I do have some minor quibbles about the book. The index could be a bit better. Some of the technical terminology could have been defined in the text a bit better with footnotes. Some terms are used early, but not defined until much later. Again, I think these are minor points.

    I highly recommend this book.
    8 people found this helpful
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  • N. Tsafos
    5.0 out of 5 stars Trying to bring light to a mystery
    Reviewed in the United States on November 25, 2005
    Verified Purchase
    "Twilight in the desert" comes at an opportune moment: oil demand has finally matched oil supply, and moderate prices will continue only with substantial increases in oil supply (or reductions in demand). Matthew Simmons, an investment banker turned geologist, has written this book to question the torrent of assumptions that the oil industry makes about Saudi Arabia, and argue that there is plenty reason to be skeptical about Saudi Arabia's geological capacity to increase production to 16.3 or 18.2 mbd, which is what the EIA and IEA project for the years 2025 and 2030 respectively.

    The book offers the requisite background for the layman to understand the history, context and structure of the Saudi oil industry (his technical notes on oil production are welcoming too). Mr. Simmons weaves together a case from the mystery that surrounds oil in Saudi Arabia-mystery about the quantity of reserves, about production levels, about the true geological condition of the wells. Mr. Simmons scanned over 200 papers published under the Society of Petroleum Engineers that chronicle the problems engineers have faced in Saudi wells-problems that are due to the fields' old age and which prelude a future decline in productivity.

    There is little chance that any reader will walk away from this book with more answers than questions. But Mr. Simmons deserves credit for shedding light into a mystery-and the debate that has followed the publication bears testament both to the quality of the work as well as to its necessity. Whether there will come an oil shock made in Saudi Arabia is impossible to forecast; but if it does, the reason will have been well explained in "Twilight in the desert."
    9 people found this helpful
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  • The Scottish Cafe
    4.0 out of 5 stars OUR LEADERS HAVE FAILED US
    Reviewed in the United States on December 7, 2011
    Verified Purchase
    Mr Matt Simmons has written a superb book. I have been interested in oil for only the last 4 years, I remember the oil spike in the first half of 2008. I will never forget watching petrol prices go up 2 cents a litre every week for those 6 months, thinking that the world had reached peak oil. Now, in December 2011, I realise that the world has not peaked yet, but we are very close. Conventional oil peaked in 2005-2007, depending on whose statistics you look at & the GFC bought us some time, after all oil demand does drop during recessions. We are now more & more reliant on non-conventional oil sources such as deep water & tar sands. My research tells me that we will reach peak oil in 2011-2014, assuming no recession.

    Mr Simmons book was predominantly researched in 2004, however his findings are more relevant today than 7 years ago. This book predominantly takes a look at Saudi Arabia's oil exploration & production history & the likelihood of increased/plateaued oil production in the future. Mr Simmons takes a deep look into the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) technical reports on Saudi Arabia. Putting it simply, Saudi Arabia has a handful of super giants & giants, namely: Ghawar, Abqaiq, Safaniya, Berri, Marjan, Zuluf & Shaybah. All of these fields started producing in the 40s, 50s & 60s except for Shaybah whose oil production started in 1998. These are old, tired & ever maturing fields. All of these oil fields were discovered a long time ago & the last major oil discovery was Shaybah in 1967. Saudi Arabia has already reached peak oil in 1981, however this was an artificial peak as Saudi Arabia was acting "responsibly" during the Iranian revolution & the beginning of the Iraq-Iran war by increasing production to make up for the shortages from these nations. Iran peaked in oil production in 1978 at 6 million barrels a day & is now only producing 3-3.5 million barrels a day.

    Mr Simmons goes deeply into the process of oil production & how important it is to retain pressure in the fields to keep from the fields peaking prematurely. The author also goes into detail about the decision to either maximise the ultimate recovery of the reserves versus maximising return on investment from the field, which is usually not aligned together. Mr Simmons also explains why the artificial increase in production during 1979-1981, may have caused irreversible damage to the oil fields that will never be known. Mr Simmons also discusses Saudi Aramco's ambitious & over optimistic claims that they can in the near future produce 15 million barrels a day & maintain this output for 50 years. Mr Simmons also goes into other super giant & giant oil fields around the world & how they declined.

    The University of Kuwait came up with an analysis of global oil production in 2010 projecting that OPEC production will not peak until 2026. I believe this to be unrealistic. Venezuela peaked in 1998, Indonesia 1977, Iran 1978, Algeria & Kuwait are now in decline & there is political turmoil in Libya & Iraq.

    It seems to me after reading this book that Saudi Arabia may get to 12 million barrels a day of production, if it is lucky, however maintaining today's high level of around 8.4 million barrels a day, let alone reaching 12 million barrels a day, for years or decades to come will be a tall order.

    Mr Simmons ends the book with possible solutions that are all logical including conservation, local food production & consumption, liberating the workforce & curtailing globalisation. Some people have labeled Mr Simmons as a doomsayer, however he is making a completely logical argument & offering solutions, so I find this label ridiculous. I, however believe that it is too late. We should of been making these decisions & transitioning to other sources of energy with a lead time of at least 20 years. History has shown that it takes more or less 40 years to completely transition from one energy source to another, a gradual process that requires a lead time. The stone age did not end because we ran out of stones, the bronze age did not end because we ran out of bronze, however the oil age will end & it is most likely it will bring our industrial civilisation down with it. We are hopelessly unprepared.

    I highly recommend this book if this topic interests you & in particular if you would like to learn what is involved in exploring for & producing oil. Mr Simmons has done an incredible job of explaining these concepts to the layman. If Mr Simmons was still alive today, I would thank him for his contribution in this field.
    2 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

  • Client d'Amazon
    4.0 out of 5 stars Godd but black and white
    Reviewed in France on April 21, 2016
    Verified Purchase
    Not colored, it is black and white and smaller than usual one, but still useful, thanks for it okay okay
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  • R. MCLEAN
    5.0 out of 5 stars Think you know the oil business?....hahahahahaha...foolish lemming...BUY THIS BOOK and educate yourself!
    Reviewed in Canada on April 3, 2013
    Verified Purchase
    The late Matt Simmons had rock star status in the Peak Oil world. His book "Twilight in the Desert" is what Stephen King would read to get scared. Simmons who worked in the industry for much of his life, lays it out straight. Having worked in the oil industry myself for a number of years, "Peak Oil" is whispered dirty words that even very few of us can grasp. Buy the BOOK! Educate yourself, and do not believe for one second that some miracle will save you. I have purchased this book several times over for friends.
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  • Michael Gibson
    5.0 out of 5 stars twilight in the desert
    Reviewed in the United Kingdom on September 29, 2013
    Verified Purchase
    brilliant book ,read it with THE PRIZE and spills and spin.

    uncertain how up to date it is but good reading
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  • Gar
    5.0 out of 5 stars A sign of darkness to come.
    Reviewed in Germany on May 26, 2013
    Verified Purchase
    A fantastic well researched, and explained story of how how our lifeblood supply of oil could be close to the end. It's scary at times times but you have to read further just to find out how the whole show could pan out. If you read one book about peak oil, then this should be the One.
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  • AC
    5.0 out of 5 stars Five Stars
    Reviewed in Canada on May 20, 2016
    Verified Purchase
    Loved it. Thank you!
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