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Gerd Gigerenzer

Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions Hardcover – April 17, 2014

by Gerd Gigerenzer (Author)

85 customer reviews

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Editorial Reviews

From Booklist

Numbers may not lie, but they are certainly often misunderstood, according to German psychologist and risk analyst Gigerenzer. We make poor decisions on an array of issues, from health-care screenings to investment decisions to planned outings, because we blindly rely on data that may be incorrectly interpreted and reported. Gigerenzer draws on psychology, sociology, and math to explain how data can start off clear and end up murky by the time it reaches its intended audience, leaving us helpless to make sound decisions about the risks involved. He notes that the risk of cancer is often misinterpreted and can lead to overzealous screenings and that Americans irrationally refused to fly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks even though the risk of being killed in an auto accident is much greater. Gigerenzer cautions readers to always look for a reference point when data is quoted and to understand the difference between relative and absolute risk. This is a highly accessible look at the importance of data and the equally great importance of clearly understanding data. --Vanessa Bush

About the Author

Gerd Gigerenzer is the author of Gut Feelings. He is currently the director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany, and lectures around the world on the importance of proper risk education for everyone from school-age children to prominent doctors, bankers, and politicians.

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Product details

Hardcover: 336 pages
Publisher: Viking (April 17, 2014)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0670025658
ISBN-13: 978-0670025657
Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.1 x 9.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 85 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #796,093 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #329 in Books > Health, Fitness & Dieting > Psychology & Counseling > Occupational & Organizational
- #1110 in Books > Science & Math > Mathematics > Applied > Statistics
- #2121 in Books > Business & Money > Skills > Decision Making

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Informative, contrarian, fun to read

April 18, 2014

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

Risk Savvy is a book in the behavioral economics & decision making genre. Other books in this genre include Thinking Fast and Slow, Predictably Irrational, the Signal and the Noise, works of Nassim Taleb. The book is a distillation of the author's extensive research & consulting experiences. It's very well written. It has a lot of interesting anecdotes and sound advice. It's fun and informative.

The core thesis of the book is that heuristics are powerful. Why? For one, they deal with noise (& overfit!) extremely well, which is abundant in modern life. Two, in domains where we know little, a heuristic may give you expert-level performance. The author even suggests developing correct heuristics is essentially what an expert does! So, as an individual, if you work on refining the heuristics you follow, you can make better decisions in life. The book is full of examples and suggestions for various domains.

Regarding content, the section on health care was an eye-opener for me. Comparing the medical industry with the financial industry, exposing the statistical illiteracy of doctors & incentives are truly revealing regarding what's wrong with the US health care system. Most important message? Put test results in statistical context. Don't get overtested to avoid the problem of false positives & unnecessary treatments. This book will likely change the way you seek health care.

The author's thoughts regarding teaching risk literacy to wide swathes of population are commendable. Decision making, though extremely important, is a skill few of us master. I highly recommend Risk Savvy and the other mentioned works to those who want to make better decisions.

PS: I'd like to thank the author for writing a popular book that plays the devil's advocate against the skeptics of human rationality. After reading his arguments, I'm convinced that human beings aren't necessarily irrational, rather we're untrained to make sound decisions in a complex world. This book provides that kind of training.

64 people found this helpful

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Very disappointed!

April 30, 2017

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

I read and was impressed with the author's book 'Gut Feelings'. This book was a total disappointment because
the material was almost the same. Different organization, mixed with some different stories but basically the
same material as with the other book. So if you read one book you do not need to read the other. Between the two I recommend
the other book. This book was like a collection of articles about the subject randomly put toghether without any architecture and
integration into a whole. I got the feeling that either publisher tried to make a quick buck or the author tried to proliferate his number
of books in a 'fast and frugal' way. Maybe the 'rule of thumb' is that all that do not matter much for the majority. I am surprized with
high recommendations written about this book, and than again I am a little bit suspicious about the sincerety of these reviewers!
I wish I never read this book and maintained a very high level of impression about the author which I had after reading the 'Gut Feelings'.

7 people found this helpful

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Valuable, but mostly regurgitation of earlier book, with some new insights

June 3, 2017

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

This book contains most valuable information, but it is largely a regurgitation of Gigerenzer's earlier book, Calculated Risks. Risk Savvy is not as well organized as Calculated Risks, but it is similarly repetitive. As in Calculated Risks, he explains the difference between risk and uncertainty, teaches the important of presenting risk in terms of reference classes and natural frequencies (instead of percentages or fractions), and uses such examples as medical tests. Many of the examples or even quotes he uses are the same. The novel information in Risk Savvy is about decision-making under uncertainty. He argues that intuition and/or simple rules of thumb are often more useful than complicated decision-making strategies (when risks are unknown and there is much uncertainty, etc.). He explains under what conditions intuition or simple rules of thumb are preferable, and he provides useful arguments and examples in such areas as investing and choosing a meal at a restaurant. This book could have been a couple of additional chapters to Calculated Risks, not a whole new book.

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