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The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny Paperback – December 29, 1997

by William Strauss (Author), Neil Howe (Author)

502 customer reviews

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This astonishing book will change the way you see the world -- and your place in it.

With startling originality, The Fourth Turning illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. Most remarkably, it offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about a new American era that will begin just after the millennium.

William Strauss and Neil Howe base this vision on a provocative new theory of American history. The authors look back five hundred years and uncover a distinct pattern: Modern history moves in cycles, each one lasting about the length of a long human life, each composed of four eras--or "turnings"--that last about twenty years and that always arrive in the same order.

First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis--the Fourth Turning--when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.

Strauss and Howe locate today's America as midway through an Unraveling, roughly a decade away from the next era of Crisis. In a brilliant analysis of the post-World War II period, they show how generational dynamics are the key to understanding the cycles of American history. They draw vivid portraits of all the modern generations: the can-do G.I.s, the mediating Silent, the values-absorbed Boomers, the pragmatic 13ers, and the child Millennials. Placed in the context of history's long rhythms, the persona and role of each generation become clear--as does the inevitability of the coming Crisis.

Whatever your stage of life, The Fourth Turning offers bold predictions about how all of us can prepare, individually and collectively, for America's next rendezvous with destiny.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"I put down The Fourth Turning with a mixture of terror and excitement....If Strauss and Howe are right, they will take their place among the great American prophets."
--David Kaiser, Boston Globe

"One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we
are going."
--Wall Street Journal

"A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future."
--USA Weekend

From the Publisher

"One of the best efforts to give us an integrated vision of where we
are going."
--Wall Street Journal

"A startling vision of what the cycles of history predict for the future."
--USA Weekend

See all Editorial Reviews

Product details

Paperback: 400 pages
Publisher: Broadway Books; Reprint edition (December 29, 1997)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0767900464
ISBN-13: 978-0767900461
Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 1.1 x 9.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 502 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #12,455 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #68 in Books > Religion & Spirituality > New Age & Spirituality > Divination
- #90 in Books > Science & Math > Technology
- #125 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > Political Science > History & Theory

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Anand Rangarajan

Fasten your seatbelts

September 24, 2016

Format: PaperbackVerified Purchase

This is the kind of book I should ordinarily despise. It contains a broad arc of history viewed internally and is epic in the worst way possible. And yet, it is incredibly compelling for two reasons: (i) there is something to be said for viewing history from the perspective of generational change and (ii) the prediction made in the book (written in 1998) that we will enter a time of crisis around 2005 give or take a few years was spot on. In addition, minor points should be given for turning the spotlight on the financial world as the catalyst for the crisis of 2008.

In a nutshell, the book advances the view that history roughly repeats itself every 80 years. Further, every 80 year period is characterized by the arrival of Artists (silent generation in this cycle), Prophets (boomers), Nomads (Gen Xers) and Heroes (millennials). Previous incarnations of this cycle ended with the war of independence, the civil war and world war II. This naturally sets up the denouement for this cycle which the authors expect to occur in the 2025 time frame. Each cycle is divided into turnings: the present one is characterized by First (High: 1946-1964), Second (Awakening: 1964-1984), Third (Unraveling: 1984-2008) and Fourth (Crisis: 2008-202X). From the book's perspective and Neil Howe's subsequent blog posts, we entered the Fourth Turning in 2008. There's nothing spooky or mystical about these cycles and turnings: instead the authors stress that human nature and culture seem to have these rhythms and that Anglo-American history is stable enough to be characterized in this manner. Other cultures may either be too stable or too chaotic to follow this type of pattern.

Prior to the arrival of Donald Trump and despite the eerie portend of the financial crisis, I would have dismissed this book. Now, it looks positively prophetic. Is there any doubt now that the combination of (i) income inequality, (ii) the economic problems of the white working class, (iii) the culture wars, (iv) multiculturalism and globalism, (v) the ravages of identity politics and postmodernism and (vi) terrorism is not going to be a combustible mix over the next decade? And that these will simultaneously distract us from combating global warming - the clear threat of the next era? While I find it hard to buy into the notion that the US will face an existential crisis (as predicted by the book), there's definitely merit in the view that the next ten years will probably have the capability of shocking us however jaded we may be at the present time.

348 people found this helpful349 people found this helpful

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Mr. B

Must read in light of everything happening now!!!

June 17, 2018

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

Overall, this book was very good, thorough and well-written. The only complaint I have is that it gets pretty repetitive at various points. I understand that this is to drive home the point and to relate the past to the present, but at some points, it seemed like just filler.

The content of this book is astounding. I just picked it up this year (2018) and the book was written over two decades ago. The breakdown in American politics and society that the authors mention for the unraveling era are alive and present. The older boomer generation pushing for "action" and wanting the young to dedicate themselves toward a path of war is ever present (even after two seemingly never ending wars in the last 13 years). There were some predictions that were wrong, such as the spirit of the millennial group, but all in all, it's a frighteningly accurate prediction.

The authors give good ideas on how we can prepare for the 4th Turning bother socio-politically and on an individual level. I'm not holding my breath on society preparing itself and I have even less hope for politicians to do so. Preparation is for the individual as far as I'm concerned.

This is the kind of book that you want to share with everyone you care about and even with the public in general, but unfortunately it's not something most people will care about until it's too late.

If you're thinking of getting this book, get it asap, try to complete it within a month's time, share it with those you care about and then make a plan of action to ready yourself for the 4th Turning.

8 people found this helpful9 people found this helpful

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claudiaking

Information is valuable for understanding what potitical ideas have influence on decisions

May 6, 2017

Format: Kindle EditionVerified Purchase

If you are searching for some of the information that may influence political decisions of the current administration in Washington, this is a book you need to read. Time Magazine mentioned that Steve Bannon's thoughts were influenced by this book. This is a very interesting discussion about the question- Is the advancement of mankind linear or does history play out in cycles? The research the author's use to support the cycle idea is quite thorough with many footnotes and bibliographic references. It is based upon a general concept for 80 years of life divided into four groups- Heroes, Artists, Prophets, and Nomads. The characteristics of these groups influence the political climate in their time of their political control. These four groups have different characteristic because of what group their parents belonged to. The upbringing of the child was dependent upon what group their parents represented. Thus, the child assumed certain characteristics that influenced the child's thinking and their approach to leadership.

13 people found this helpful14 people found this helpful

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