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Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs) Paperback – May 3, 1994

by Stephen Peter Rosen (Author)

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How and when do military innovations take place? Do they proceed differently during times of peace and times of war? In Winning the Next War, Stephen Peter Rosen argues that armies and navies are not forever doomed to "fight the last war." Rather, they are able to respond to shifts in the international strategic situation. He also discusses the changing relationship between the civilian innovator and the military bureaucrat.

In peacetime, Rosen finds, innovation has been the product of analysis and the politics of military promotion, in a process that has slowly but successfully built military capabilities critical to American military success. In wartime, by contrast, innovation has been constrained by the fog of war and the urgency of combat needs. Rosen draws his principal evidence from U.S. military policy between 1905 and 1960, though he also discusses the British army's experience with the battle tank during World War I.

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Editorial Reviews

Review

"Professionals interested in national security will find it hard to ignore this book.... Rosen recounts how major innovations in the twentieth century changed the way wars were fought. His underlying message is that understanding the process of innovation holds more importance to winning future wars than focusing on any particular change in weapons, organizations, or tactics.... Rosen crafts his book with a historian's eye for the facts and a political scientist’s willingness to draw conclusions."

(Military Review)

"What makes for innovations in war-making? The answers of this careful study, based primarily on American military experiences in the twentieth century, run refreshingly against intuition: innovation seems easier in peacetime than war, for the fog of the latter covers all; it is no harder during periods of budgetary austerity than in flusher times; it is neither much connected to better intelligence about would-be foes nor much influenced by civilian leaders or thinkers. Those answers bear heeding now that the United States can no longer afford to build everything and then see what works."

(Foreign Affairs)

About the Author

Stephen Peter Rosen is Harvard College Professor and Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University. He is the author of Societies and Military Power: India and Its Armies and Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military from Cornell.

Product details

Series: Cornell Studies in Security Affairs
Paperback: 288 pages
Publisher: Cornell University Press; 63799th edition (May 3, 1994)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0801481961
ISBN-13: 978-0801481963
Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.6 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 12 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review: 1 customer review
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #725,683 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #1056 in Books > History > Military > Weapons & Warfare > Conventional
- #1424 in Books > Politics & Social Sciences > Politics & Government > International & World Politics > Security
- #1595 in Books > History > Military > Strategy

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A customer

Technology change requires more than just technology

June 2, 2003

Format: Paperback

This book examines the hypothesis that innovation is easier during wartime than peacetime. It does so by considering a number of historical shifts of interest, and the technological inputs. It concludes with discussion about how a military can keep itself in touch with where technology may be going, and the difficulties of doing so.
Rosen adopts a tight definition for the term "innovation", requiring a major shift in doctrine or practice. The introduction of radar to the RAF is, for instance, not an innovation, because the RAF had already undertaken the doctrinal shift towards integrated air defence, through the policy shift away from bombers to fighters and the establishment of ground stations. True innovation may require the raising and acceptance of new strategic measures of effectiveness. This is a key reason why innovation can be as readily implemented in peacetime as in wartime; in wartime, the tendency is to discard risky ideas and focus on what is known to work.
The analysis is backed by a historical base of case studies, and turns up some surprises. He argues, for instance, that the British introduced the tank about as rapidly as was feasible - it was coupled to a new strategic measure based on minimising casualties, the zero-sum gain of infantry units versus tank units, and the need to gain tactical experience. The raising of naval aviation in the US Navy versus the Royal Navy is a useful example of how a new technology may require a reversal in primacy of extant technologies (ships and aircraft), with success or otherwise thus riding on doctrinal change. The US Army experience of raising the airborne cavalry concept points to a minimum time of about a decade for full acceptance of innovation. Truly successful innovation can and will withstand substantial setbacks if there is confidence in the strategic measures and concepts, as seen in the US Marine Corps invasion of Tarawa versus (implicitly) the Australian & New Zealand experience at Gallipoli.
Given that innovation may require a change in strategic measures, Rosen observes that new technologies are most rapidly introduced top-down - that is, a technology can and will be rapidly introduced if it presents a compelling strategic advantage and can be fielded through a small force. A notable example is the French mitrailleuse, a precursor to the machine gun, which was regarded as being a strategic weapon and hence not deployed into wider service. Subsequent to the book's publication, one might make similar observations about the uptake of stealth and space technology.
Rosen concludes that a Type II investment strategy is both effective and feasible for handling (technological) innovation; that is, one cannot predict which of a range of technologies will pan out, but can have in place a strategy for exploiting those technologies that do. Notably, the acquisition of equipment can come quite late in the innovation process, building on early work in doctrinal and strategic change. Within this, a key indicator is if the process is being lead by someone with an impeccable conventional background, who can shepherd the careers of the new staff officers who will go on to implement and support the new systems.
Overall, I found the evidence presented in a well-organised and well-written manner, and the conclusions compelling.

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