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The author Mathew Burrows describes the known challenges to the US and the West, and then divides each challenge into smaller and more workable parts. Both the challenges and responses are widely known, however, this book is unique in that it provides an accurate synopsis. It is also likely that all of these civilizational challenges must be solved by 2030 or before, since any one challenge left unmet may undermine progress in other parts of the world. Specifically, the major challenges include but are not limited to: 1) a fifty percent increase in world energy demands over the next 15 to 20 years (p. 90); 2) a world population of 8.3 billion in 2030, trending up to eleven billion or more ("A global population of almost 11 billion could be devastating for the planet...") (p. 88, 89); 3) huge increases in demand for freshwater, up by forty percent in 2030 (p. 84); 4) intractable US federal budget deficits and debt (p. 245), and risks to US economic strength ("The keystone of national power for the United States remains its economic strength and innovation" (p. 155); 5) the decline in funding for basic science research (p. 246); 6) a splintered world that lacks US leadership or guidance (p. 157). All of these major challenges are covered with precise detail and documentation..
These are the challenges which call for responses, and these responses would be "unprecedented efforts" (Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, p. 570) or "radical changes" (Burrows, p. 243). This perspective is based on Arnold Toynbee's "challenge and response theory", under which nations or civilizations must respond to challenges, or decline and eventually vanish. In this book, the proposed responses are also called "radical changes" (p. 243), or policies, legislation, treaties, cultural changes, etc. Burrows proposes that "A first step would bring together the analysis of future trends with the decision-making process ..." (p. 252). He recommends a strategic planning and foresight office in the White House and Presidential administrations.
Responses to the civilizational or national challenges listed above include, in order: 1) for energy, a renaissance in US government funding for basic research, and for innovations in energy technology (p. 246); 2) for a sustainable world population, support of health programs, voluntary family planning, democracy, and planned urbanization (p. 89); 3) for freshwater resources, more R&D for efficient water use in agriculture, coupled with a sustainable world population (p. 84, 85); 4) for US budget integrity, the Simpson-Bowles plan and a new constitutional amendment for clean politics (p. 245); 5) for US science and innovation, university R&D paid for by higher taxes on upper income people; 6) to prevent a splintered world, enhanced US economic strength and a focus on US cooperation with other countries in a multipolar world, instead of attempts at unipolar influence (p. 150, 151, 153).
It is also encouraging that other authors are writing about the challenges and responses in a closely similar way. The Microsoft scientist Stephen Emmott writes exceptionally well about the impending risk of a massively overpopulated world in "Ten Billion"; the Nobel Laureate Richard E. Smalley presents a strategy for energy innovation in his YouTube video "Our Energy Challenge" and article "Future Global Energy Prosperity: The Terawatt Challenge"; Peter G. Peterson has several books about the US national debt and supported the film "IOUSA", along with strategies for sustaining US economic strength; Harvard Prof. Larry Summers calls infrastructure rebuilding at a time of low interest rates and pressing need (p. 246); Harvard Prof. Larry Lessig offers a plan for a US constitutional amendment to finally rein in the influence of big money during elections.
For each challenge there is a response, or several responses. Toynbee wrote that a society's response to a challenge must sometimes be unprecedented. Burrows prefers the term "radical changes". However, it's still unclear how radical or unprecedented this book's proposed responses are. Would a new gasoline tax of ten cents per gallon to fund energy R&D be radical or unprecedented? Was the Simpson-Bowles budget plan radical? I would argue these strategies were moderate, and not radical. Just these two examples of apparently moderate ideas being voted down or ignored at too radical or unprecedented show how far the US is getting behind the curve. As the author puts it, "crisis management still crowds out longer-range strategizing." (p. 6). An unprecedented change would be a genuine reform in US and Western governments: "This is the big challenge facing us - how to reform government so it can keep up with the drumbeat of new events but not be swamped by them." (p. 6).
- Hardcover: 288 pages
- Publisher: St. Martin's Press (September 9, 2014)
- Language: English
- ISBN-10: 1137279559
- ISBN-13: 978-1137279552
- Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1 x 9.5 inches
- Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
- Customer Reviews: 20 customer reviews
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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,005,835 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #67875 in Social Sciences (Books)
- #6788 in Technology (Books)
- #9887 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books
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