To read Kaplan's 1995 The Coming Anarchy is to be enveloped in withering realism, the consequences of which are both the loss of idealism and the embracing of real solutions. While the book has its damning portions, these are folded within an over-arching sense of reality, an author begging us to both recognize the disparities that exist between the "haves" and the "have-nots" and the consequences to allowing these incongruities to build until their consequences roll over the industrialized "haves" around the world. Kaplan makes this argument without succumbing to the rampant liberal idealism which seems to be the only opposing voice to today's dominant neo-conservatism. What is interesting, perhaps even compelling, in his argument is the willingness to acknowledge the limits to both liberal idealism and conservative free-market enthusiasm.
I have two over-arching questions to Kaplan: first, we absolutely must learn from our history, but must we not also challenge ourselves to adapt and grow from these most painful and provocative of moments? I was left feeling that a certain amount of definable determinism had crouched into Kaplan's analysis, which while obviously very real, begs the question of whether an argument wholly couched in realism holds the potential, in any discipline, for advancing the human cause. I hold out little hope that man can ever entirely escape his most base of natures, but I do believe in progress in science, religion, law and politics. The profound difficulty in this systemized humanism is that it must take into account the organic psychology of humans versus the repeatable coldness of science.
My second question to Kaplan is closely related to the first, namely whether his emphasis on realpolitik is genuinely a worthwhile means to justifiable ends. Somewhere within his argument I needed better clarification on where real good, right and true things matter enough to be fought for. Kaplan is right (and wholly so in my opinion) to argue that history begs us to realize the limitations to democracy and the dangers of a luxuriating democracy that has lost a definable enemy against which to sharpen and test themselves. I found this portion of his book most compelling: Kaplan believes, as do the eminent ancient Greek historians we would do well to wrestle with now, that when democracies are at their epoch they become social systems within which the individual is focused almost extensively on their own well being. Kaplan goes a step farther arguing persuasively that this narcissism is an almost inevitable prelude to tyranny. I was chilled at reading this because it parallels so closely my own thoughts on the lengths we would be willing to go to in the interests of protecting our own well-being. What we value most is no longer any democratic ideal, it is our consumerism. What would we be willing to accommodate were we to find this threatened?
Kaplan's analysis is gritty with realism, and in its realism it does a better job deconstructing options than presenting ones around which we can center limited resources to pursue seemingly unlimited needs. Towards the latter part of the book and prior to fully embracing Kissinger's realpolitik Kaplan does propose three options he believes should guide foreign policy. First, that foreign assistance be specifically targeted towards those issues that will allow a country to stabilize, in his words "programs that seek to slow societal deterioration gradually." As simple as this sounds it should be an idea internalized by religious outreach programs that seek first to "save" people rather than embrace those fundamental social issues that would benefit the most (but here we find the inevitable disagreement between the spheres of religion and secularism as to what is in fact most beneficial). For those who, in response to this point, would argue that this type of investment is the role of the government Kaplan would agree and simply respond that "...[this foreign aid] would not be targeted at making a particular country democratic in the face of a low literacy rate, the absence of a middle class, and a history of ethnic or regional strife." (page 122) Because our government (in particular Reagan and Bush conservatives) focuses on the belief that democracy is the answer without sufficient dialogue on what is required to make democracy thrive (something we probably do not understand well enough ourselves to share with others who have none of our shared history), we fall prey to the limitations of a noble ideal couched in conservative's equivalent to naïve liberal idealism.
The second suggestion from Kaplan is "early warning." Kaplan states "Some equate pessimism about the Third World with cynicism. In truth, pessimism is often both a realistic and a moral response: we should be scouting for trouble, not indulging fond hope." (page 123) This is a statement that provides a keen insight into his belief that we can and should help, but only if we have at the core of our motives a desire to do good within the reality of the situation. Kaplan never argues for us to stick our head in the sand, on point of fact, his first chapter develops the limousine metaphor where the industrialized nations of Western Europe, America and certain parts of the Pacific-Rim are inside and the balance of the world (the vast majority - 95% of all population growth post 1994 were born and live at or below UN poverty levels) are outside the limo in absolute squalor. Kaplan believes it is naïve to think this disparity will not ultimately impact those inside the limo. Yes, it will impact us last. But it will impact us and probably in a more pronounced fashion than we wish to appreciate.
The last guideline on foreign aid Kaplan presents is that intervention should be almost a last resort. His argument here is, I believe, best seen as the stipulation that when we choose to intervene we must do so for the right reasons in the right way because if we do not, the realpolitik he so readily acknowledges is the guiding force in humanity will preclude action when action is most needed. This is wisdom. This is worth building a philosophy of engagement around.
This book cost me much of my liberal idealism, but I am the better for this as I am closer to the goddess of wisdom, that much sought after ability to discern the right thing to do in what may seem to be equally damaging options. Kaplan is easy to read and easy to comprehend, but the consequences of his arguments are damning if we do not choose to reverse the tide of consumerism pervasive in our culture. It is interesting to me that in the Christian country of America where religion is held to so strongly by so many people that the fundamental poverty of spirit and belongings that Jesus taught is what is most out of reach. This is where religion can and should have a voice - it should be helping us all find a peace that can not be found in possessions. If tyranny lies at the other side of a republic gone astray, we would do well to remind ourselves what forces are the driving power behind our politics. This is why empowered grace matters, this is why fundamentalisms have to be fought against, not graciously placated.
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ashish shukla
It shakes you up from the self-indulgent belief that peaceful societies are always for the good. It shows how it nurtures weakne
Reviewed in India on November 23, 2014
