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Ahmed Rashid

Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan Hardcover – March 15, 2012

by Ahmed Rashid (Author)

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The leading journalist on Pakistan lays out America's options with Pakistan and Afghanistan in the post-Bin Laden years.

What are the possibilities-and hazards-facing America as it withdraws from Afghanistan and as it reviews its long engagement in Pakistan? Where is the Taliban now in both these countries? What does the immediate future hold and what are America's choices as President Obama considers our complicated history and faces reelection?

These are some of the crucial questions that Ahmed Rashid- Pakistan's preeminent journalist-takes on in this follow-up to his acclaimed Descent into Chaos. Rashid correctly predicted that the Iraq war would have to be refocused into Afghanistan and that Pakistan would emerge as the leading player through which American interests and actions would have to be directed. Now, as Washington and the rest of the West wrestle with negotiating with unreliable and unstable "allies" in Pakistan, there is no better guide to the dark future than Ahmed Rashid.

He focuses on the long-term problems-the changing casts of characters, the future of international terrorism, and the actual policies and strategies both within Pakistan and Afghanistan and among the Western allies-as the world tries to bring some stability to a fractured region saddled with a legacy of violence and corruption. The decisions made by America and the West will affect the security and safety of the world. And as he has done so well in the past, Rashid offers sensible solutions and provides a way forward for all three countries.

Print length

256 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Viking
Publication date

March 15, 2012
Dimensions

6 x 1 x 8.75 inches
ISBN-10

9780670023462
ISBN-13

978-0670023462
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"[Rashid] literally wrote the book on the Taliban and now has added a superb work on the future of Pakistan."
— The Washington Post

"Insightful . . . Readers will welcome this insider’s lucid, expert account of a disaster in the making." — Kirkus Reviews

"Pakistan on the Brink is a page turner. Through Ahmed Rashid's eloquent, incisive, objective, and fact-based descriptions of events and blunders repeatedly committed by the Afghan, Pakistani, and American establishments, the reader gets a great understanding of the genesis of the quagmire for which President Obama has coined the phrase AfPak." — Louisville Courier-Journal

Praise for Descent into Chaos

"Powerful." — Wolf Blitzer

"A clear-headed, sobering look at a country whose ties with the U.S. are becoming ever more frayed." — Publishers Weekly

“Rashid, a Pakistani journalist, is that most valuable of political analysts: both insider and outsider to the problems he studies. His book should be read by anyone pondering how America might stop widening Osama bin Laden’s pool of bomb-clad volunteers.” — Chicago Tribune

“Rashid’s book should be required reading for both presidential candidates, and anyone who wants to understand the jihadi problem.” — The Philadelphia Inquirer

"Ahmed Rashid's latest work provides essential insights for anyone who hopes to understand what's going on in Central Asia and the alternative futures that stretch out before it."
— Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

"A clear-headed, sobering look at a country whose ties with the U.S. are becoming ever more frayed." — Publishers Weekly (starred review)

“Excellent…Nobody tells the story of Musharaff’s duplicity better than Rashid.” — Time

“Ahmed Rashid has over the decades turned out to be something of a prophet in the region…[and] his fourth book [is] a caustic compendium of the mistakes by the Bush administration and, by extension, its regional allies, in tackling Islamic militancy.” — International Herald Tribune

About the Author

Ahmed Rashid is a journalist who has been covering Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia for more than twenty years. He is a correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, Far Eastern Economic Review, Daily Telegraph, and The Nation, a leading newspaper in Pakistan. His #1 New York Times bestseller Taliban has been translated into more than twenty languages.

Product details

ASIN ‏ : ‎ 0670023469
Publisher ‏ : ‎ Viking; First Edition (March 15, 2012)
Language ‏ : ‎ English
Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 256 pages
ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 9780670023462
ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0670023462
Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 12.8 ounces
Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6 x 1 x 8.75 inches

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Ahmed Rashid

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Ahmed Rashid is a journalist who has been covering Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia for more than twenty years. He is a correspondent for the Wall Street Journal, Far Eastern Economic Review, Daily Telegraph, and The Nation, a leading newspaper in Pakistan. His #1 New York Times bestseller Taliban has been translated into more than twenty languages.

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4.2 out of 5

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ewaffle

Not up to Rashid's best

Reviewed in the United States on March 15, 2014

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.Pakistan may be the “most failed” in the list of failed nations. It certainly is the most dangerous to the peace and security of South Asia and much of the rest of the world. Pakistan has a large, well equipped and trained military over which civilian government has little control or even influence. The army has deposed governments in the past but seems now to be content with wielding whatever power is available to the central authorities while leaving hopelessly corrupt and inept civilian elites to deal with messy problems like making excuses to the United States (a chief source of funding) for not cracking down on the Taliban while wringing their hands over the attempted murder of Malala Yousafzai, the teenage girl that the Taliban tried to assassinate, or begging aid from no longer receptive donor countries for major disasters like the 2010 floods, donors who know that the majority of the aid granted will be stolen.

A major reason for Pakistan’s steadily worsening relations with neighboring countries and with the Muslim world generally is the continued use of proxy jihadist forces in addition to the Taliban like Lashkar-e-Taiba a group founded by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the spy service for the military. Lashkar-e-Taiba was initially deployed against the Indian army in Kashmir but soon spun out of the control of their masters, no longer willing to do the state’s bidding and turning against the insufficiently Islamist military. The Pakistani Taliban and other jihadist groups created with the connivance of the military are now (according to Rashid and it is impossible to disagree with him) the real existential threat to Pakistan, even while they still consider India to be their most dangerous enemy. And, of course, a final state collapse of Pakistan would mean a free-for-all over control of its nuclear weapons, an issue never far from the minds of Western, Chinese and Indian policymakers.

Despite being an agricultural country there have been no breakthroughs in the technology of farming or any new crops developed in Pakistan—its economy continues to export its cotton and rice and import manufactured goods. There has been no investment in upgrading the skills of its workforce or real improvements in infrastructure (electric power is cut for up to ten hours per day—every day—in the cities and more in rural areas) to attract industry, due to corruption and lack of interest of civil authorities.

Much of what Rashid writes about Afghanistan (about half the book) would be known to anyone who has paid attention to the news from there over the past few years. It is a compendium of grim statistics—body counts, suicide bombings, drone strikes, kidnappings—without much analysis; the same may be true concerning the Pakistan chapters, of course, but since I know so little about it others would have to answer that question. “Pakistan on the Brink” does have a thrown together against a deadline feel to it. The third book of a trilogy that began with the excellent “Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia” and continued with the well received “Descent into Chaos”. In a generous author's note, Rashid thanks his "publisher and editor Wendy Wolf of Viking Penguin for forcing this book out of a very reluctant author who wondered if anyone really would want to read another book of mine." He needn’t have worried, although it is not on the same level as the first two books in the trilogy.

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05/11A

Afghanistan

Reviewed in the United States on April 2, 2012

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Like the first two books by Rashid, "Taliban" and "Decent in Chaos", he offers a perspective most of us from the West often overlook. As a Pakistani with historical insights to what happened in the past provides a vision for what is happening now and for the future.

That said, I worked Paktia and Khost provinces early 2003 with involvement in the standing up the 1st Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Gardez. Although, it was a long time ago (and followed by Iraq), my perspective at long term national building, democratic institutions and essentially long term stability had a faint chance..even back then of success. Today, the issues remain the same....infrastructure development, sustain peace and security, credible government and leadership at the national and provincial levels.

I do take exception to Rashid's posture that the West is responsible for all or most of the mistakes with the elements of nation building as mentioned in the previous paragraph. The Afghan's themselves have yet to experience the "Arab Spring" kind of momentum at any level. In general, the population stands aside and allows the international community to do what they do. Certainly, some blame rests on our mentality..."do it our way" kind of mandate.

Feudalism mixed with tribal and cultural/language issues result in Afghanistan being many different countries in one. That is how it is now and will be for generations.

And as for Pakistan...the country has never fully dedicated its resources to assisting the west in eliminating the Taliban from the tribal areas adjacent to Afghanistan. This we all know...so, how can ISAF attain any sense of stability along the border areas when training camps continue to breed extremist jihadist.

But, the most critical component to Afghanistan sliding back into chaos was the invasion of Iraq. I watched while critical personnel assets and funding commitments melted away because of the Iraq War..a war of choice.

If and when the historians cast blame for the failure of Afghanistan...and Iraq..it must be due to the Bush-Cheney decision to "free the people of Iraq". Those two also contributed to the financial disasters which remain at issue during the upcoming election. I only hope the faceless souls of those lost visit Bush, Cheney and Rumsfelt each and every night of their collective lives.

The faces of those lost in Iraq and Afghanistan..many I knew..... maybe lost in history, but to their dedication and sacrifice..and to their families who suffer everyday...we will never forget.

Afghanistan/Iraq/Sudan/Balkans
US Army

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RJP

Detailed Contemporary Portrait of a Troubled Region

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on July 22, 2012

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By the authors admission, the chapters of this book are essentially standalone essays. With that said, they complement each other very well, and when read as a whole the book provides a detailed briefing on the current state of play between Pakistan, Afghanistan and the West. I have no doubt that Ahmed Rashid's knowledge of his topic extends to the highest level, and as you'll see when reading the book, it has allowed him a unique level of access to key politicians and policymakers. Yet the book makes for a very accessible read with little need for any specialist knowledge prior to reading. For the potential reader: the historical context of the issues discussed is only briefly touched upon (if at all), but this is perhaps a strength, and no doubt a deliberate decision by the author, in pursuit of a concise portrait of the contemporary situation and likely prospects for the future.

Of particular merit:

The opening chapters are notable for their coverage not only of Pakistan (as their titles would suggest), but of the deep and complex relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and go a long way to helping us understand why the road to peace in Kabul runs largely through Islamabad, as they say.

Chapter four concentrates on the failure to hold free and fair elections and establish legitimate governance in Afghanistan, and the necessity of doing so if any real progress is to be made. Pakistan's sectarian geography and the preponderance of the Taliban in certain areas had meant that electoral turnout among certain groups was virtually non-existent: one of the key factors behind the military surge into Taliban-controlled areas of southern Afghanistan prior to the 2010 parliamentary election.

The fifth chapter illustrates the intense infighting in Washington over policy in and for Afghanistan, and levels a strong critique of ISAF strategy, arguing that the strong focus on Helmand may have been detrimental. Rashid posits that a more sound strategy would have been to fully secure Kabul and then gradually expand outwards.

In the concluding chapter, Rashid offers his analysis of what the future might hold. Commenting on states of Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan), India and China, and also Iran, the author illustrates the wider regional picture, detailing what is at stake for these countries and what their roles might be in moving forward. The Arab Spring, although geographically distant from Pakistan, is argued as a potential threat should a similar sentiment take root among Pakistan's jobless and frustrated youth, while the threat of sectarian revolt and the detrimental impact of 'capture or kill' raids are also covered.

Ahmed Rashid's book excels by not focusing on the particular details of one country or the other, but in analysing them together, on the basis that their futures are intractably linked. Rashid's key contention is that in many ways Pakistan's current position is more perilous than that held by Afghanistan, and that, following Richard Holbrooke's footsteps, Washington and the West must rethink their current strategy toward Pakistan, for the status of Pakistan's fragile democracy is perhaps the key arbiter of Afghanistan's prospects for a stable and democratic future.

3 people found this helpful

Divakar Kaza

The begining of the end

Reviewed in India on January 31, 2015

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PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK – The future of America, Pakistan and Afghanistan - Ahmed Rashid

Ahmed Rashid is one of the few Pakistani Authors / Journalists who writes in an unbiased fashion about Pakistan. This book is the last of his Trilogy on Pakistan and its sorry state. The first two Taliban and Pakistan – Descent into Chaos were highly rated ( I didn’t read them) and reviewed very favourably by the Western Press.

This book begins post the American intrusion into Abbottabad and the assassination of Osama Bin Laden. Covers the red faced Pakistan establishment which denied the existence of Osama all thru the ten years after 9/11. This is also my first book on Pakistan post the Bin Laden assassination.

It covers all the usual issues – the relationship of Pakistan with the US (possibly the strangest bedfellows in history), the issues and turmoil in Afghanistan and the quest for influence (and the worries of India’s growing clout there due to the help in reconstruction), the damages done to both the Pakistan and Afghanistan economies, the continued lawlessness in the Pashtun areas and FATA and where the writ of the government doesn’t run and continues to be managed by war-lords. Also enough chapters devoted to Al Qaida, the Good Taliban and the Bad Taliban and the terrible Taliban – these nuanced distinctions are only in the minds of the case officers of CIA and their turf-worrying bosses in Langley. Thought all Taliban was terrible.

Overall – presents a balanced picture of a failed nation and its continued downward spiral. The future seems bleak and possibly in our life-time – the failed nation might disintegrate into multiple nations and superpowers and the not so super powers once again jockeying for influence thru aid and reconstruction. Something tells me that it could be within the next decade itself.
On another level, happy Jinnah took all this mess along with him in his quest for the Islamic land. We have enough issues of our own with Naxalites, Kashmir and insurgency in the North East – Happy we do not have all the troubles of Pakistan as our own (if it was a part of India). Thank You Mr Jinnah. 120 crore Indians are grateful to you.

My rating: 3.5/5.

3 people found this helpful

MariusGaius

The book is disappointing and I hate to say this because Ahmed Rashid is a very ...

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on January 4, 2018

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The book is disappointing and I hate to say this because Ahmed Rashid is a very likeable person. However, the books is extremely dull, dreary and lacking coherence. The author seems to criticise the Pakistani military establishment for distinguishing between good and bad Taliban whereas simultaneously suggesting that the only way to have peace in Afghanistan is by cutting a deal with the Taliban. This might just be sub-conscious but it shows that this hasn’t been thought through. To find this a tolerable read, you really have to be deeply interested in the subject of Afghanistan and the tragedy of the Pakhtuns that they find themselves divided between two states.

Perhaps because the author is Pakistani, he seems to be unable to see (or is unwilling to see) that the long term “solution” lies in weaning Pakhtuns away from fundamentalism promoted by the Pakistani military and towards ethnic nationalism. This means that the Pakhtun areas south of the Durand line must be unified with Afghanistan in a single unified state. This would bring the chaos and destruction to an end. But it is precisely the fear of this which makes the Pakistani military continuously fuel fundamentalism for its own ends – with disastrous consequences for Pakistan itself.

Wolf b0i

This book is well written and as far as I ...

Reviewed in the United Kingdom on March 14, 2018

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This book is well written and as far as I can tell well researched. The downside really is that a lot of the text is only relevant to the time it was written, this is because it's essentially a collection of news-like articles looking at factors and situations from a specific moment in time (the time the author is writing at). If I'd have bought this book 4-5 years ago I probably would have found it incredibly beneficial to read but now things have moved on and most of it's observations about the 'present situation' or 'what will likely happen next' are no longer relevant.

Amazon Customer

Informative and Insightful

Reviewed in India on January 14, 2017

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This book is very informative, gives you good insight into what happened in this region of the world in the period of 5-7 years that this book covers. The author has given detailed account of what all the regional/global players were up to. You can't get this much info just by watching news, they are generally myopic. However, this book covers the length and breadth of events in Pak in such detail that you can put the pieces together and try and understand the overall picture.

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Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan Hardcover – March 15, 2012

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