Mainstream media have generally crumbled to the fearful predictions
on global warming, which is said by some extremists to be on the verge
of being out of control, as in the book The Revenge of Gaia. To make the dogma more scary, there is a further claim
that the years from about 1980 to the present have been the hottest in
history, and that more storms and more severe storms have resulted.
Extemists have made it clear that humans must stop burning most fossil
fuels in favor of wind and solar power. The true costs of doing so are
never admitted -- turning the standard of living in developed countries
back 150 years.
According to UGW, international panic over these alarms resulted in the
Kyoto Protocol for reduction of emissions of CO2, implemented by a few
countries in 2005. According to UGW, the only result will be payments of
billions of dollars to the government of the Russian Republic, with no
reductions of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere by the countries making
the payments. So UGW gives the evidence from the Russian Academy of
Science in 2004 to reject Kyoto because: (1) the world's temperatures do
not follow CO2 levels; (2) the world was warmer in the Roman Empire
period and during the Medieval Climate Optimum (1000-1250 AD) than now;
(3) there is a much better correlation between warming and solar output
than with CO2 levels; (4) sea levels are not rising faster than 15 cm
per century since 1850, even in the slightly warmer periods; (5) they
did not expect tropical diseases to worsen with some warming; and (6)
that there is no increase in incidence of storms or their intensity due
to recent mild global warming, with which the British delegation
concurred. With no explanation, Russia ratified the Kyoto Treaty in
2005. The obvious explanations, if broadcast, were that Europe and Japan
would pay Russia $ billions to burn more Russian fossil fuels, and that
Russia would gain entrance to the World Trade Organization.
To take the Russian Academy of Science's reasons in order, UGW showed
that: the most blatant attempt to fabricate the Earth's temperatures was
that of Michael Mann, PhD, University of Massachusetts, whose infamous
graph of global temperatures form 1000-2000 AD became known as "the
hockey stick". It showed a general sag in temperature from 1000-1920,
leaving out the higher temperatures from 1000-1250 AD than we now have,
then a huge leap. Iinvestigation by a pair of Canadian researchers (see
Essex & McKitrick, 2002) found that Mann's raw data, obtained by them
with great difficulty, was flawed by every imaginable misuse and
selection of data (details are given), including faulty use of tree-ring
widths, an old standard for weather estimation. Mature trees not only
grow faster when they are warmer or have more rain, but also when there
is more CO2, which was ignored by Mann.
UGW cites evidence of many kinds to show that there were two periods
hotter than now in the last 2000 years, such as the Danish colonization
of Greenland, then the later failure of the colony; on the extent and
location of farmland in many locations, including in the Roman Empire
and in China; isotopic ratios in fossils; length of the sunspot cycle,
and other data. One recent finding, since 1979, is satellite data
showing that the sun is producing 0.05% more radiation per decade. The
temperatures used by pseudoclimatologists to scare us are obviously
tainted by urban heat island effects. New York City has warmed up, as
have Pasadena and Tokyo; but the warming can hardly be global since
Death Valley, CA, McGill, NV, and West Point, NY, have cooled (Crichton,
2004).
Unfortunately, this revised UGW did not focus on the actual CO2 record
from direct chemical assays. CO2 levels were actually higher than now 3
times between 1812 and 1965 (Beck, 2007). This alone demolishes any idea
that higher CO2 levels will cause runaway warming; it already did not.
Now about that so-called consensus on warming: UGW gives 6 examples of
groups of scientists not in agreement with the "warming by CO2"
hypothesis in the 1990s. The largest group was over 17,100 mostly
American holders of science or engineering degrees who signed a petition
expressing doubt about man-made global warming and opposing the Kyoto
Treaty. Of these, fully 2,600 had climate science credentials. Perhaps
the most important group was the 50 US State Climatologists, 90% of whom
agreed with the statement: "scientific evidence indicates variations in
global temperature are likely to be naturally occurring and cyclical
over very long periods of time" (p66). Mass media: beware of your
credibility -- there is no consensus!
Another of UGW's strengths is recognizing that: "Water vapor is the
most important greenhouse gas even during the current [minor] warming
[since about 1980]. Water vapor makes up about 60% of the natural
greenhouse effect, with CO2 making up an estimated 20%..." (p40). Not
knowing whom to believe in 1997, and to see who was correct about the
relative infrared absorption of greenhouse gases, I determined an
infrared spectrum of humid air at 40° north latitude. Fully 92% of the
absorption was due to water vapor, and 8% to CO2; no methane or CFCs
were detected (Kauffman, 2004).
UGW may be the best overall 21st century book on climatology for the
educated general public. It is clear and easy to read, even more so in
the 2007 edition. You should consider having one as an antidote to the
prevailing unscientific dogma on this subject.
Beck, E.-G. (2007). 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analysis by
Chemical Methods, Energy & Environment, 18(2), 259-282.
Crichton, M. (2004). State of Fear. New York, NY: HarperCollins, pp 86,
190, 370-381, 393-4. (Original sources given therein.)
Essex & McKitrick, (2002). Taken by Storm. Toronto, Ontario, Canada: Key
Porter Books, Ltd., pp154-174.
Kauffman, J. M. (2004). Water in the Atmosphere. J. Chem. Ed., B81(8),
1229-30.
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