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Brian Joe Lobley Berry

Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior

by Mr. Brian J. L. J. Berry (Author)

3.9 3 ratings

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Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability—and the value—of "long-wave" theory.

In Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior, Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles— one inflationary and the other deflationary—form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena.

As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not," he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."

ISBN-10

9780801840364
ISBN-13

978-0801840364
Publisher

Johns Hopkins University Press
Publication date

January 1, 1991
Language

English
Dimensions

6.38 x 0.59 x 9.5 inches
Print length

256 pages
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3.9 out of 5

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A. Thompson

Rythms or just another cycles book?

Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2010

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I was disappointed in the shortsightedness of the author. The book only went through cycle analysis. There was no attempt to identify rhythms which can be more than dynamic cycles.

For a while now I have noticed,charted and annotated price/time action of the S&P500. What is evident is very short duplications of time intervals, maybe once, twice or thrice and then a new time interval will emerge. This is not a cycle and not a dynamic cycle. This is a pattern and it has never been documented before to my knowledge.

Just measure time in 50%, 100% & 200 intervals on adjacent price moves or alternating price moves. You will find the market moves 1,2,3,4 steps of the same time and then that time interval disappears as another one replaces it.

The arithmeticians have never been able to figure it out because it appears cyclish in short time spans, but disappears and cannot be accounted for with any equation. I was hoping for verification of what I see visually on my charts when I map it out. I guess the human mind is still more powerful at recognizing patterns than any computer mathematical algorithm.

The author makes no analysis of the Gann multi-year time spans that reoccur with an exactness to the day at times, but exhibit no cycle tenancies. 1998-2002 = 4yrs : 2002-2007 = 5yrs : 1987-2002 = 15yrs : 1987-2007 = 20yrs :

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Mike Alexander

Highly recommended

Reviewed in the United States on March 2, 2001

The topic of this book is the economic cycle called the long wave or Kondratiev cycle. The Russian economist Kondratiev did not discover these cycles, but he was the first to study them in detail. Long waves may be responsible for various long term trends: the slow down in productivity growth and wages after 1973, the "Reagan revolution", Toynbee's cycles of War and Peace, stock cycles (my focus) and others. This is the reason why people study them. The idea that long waves are major factors in these trends (or that they are even relevant at all) is controversial. Berry's book represents a modern day treatment of this topic.
I bought this book when I was researching the Kondratiev cycle as a possible explanation for stock market cycles (see my book Stock Cycles for more information). Berry presents an excellent overview of the longwaves literature in a single moderately-priced volume, and it is an excellent place to start a serious study of long waves. What I really liked about the book was the strongly empirical flavor where historical inflation and GDP data were smoothed and plotted in various ways that really "bring the cycles out". The focus is on letting the data "tell their own story", which was most refreshing in my opinion.

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