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Caspar W. Weinberger

Peter Schweizer

The Next War Hardcover – January 25, 1998

by Caspar Weinberger (Author), Peter Schweizer (Author), Lady Margaret Thatcher (Foreword)

4.4 43 ratings

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You can read The Next War as a military novel and find it riveting.-- Business Week

Print length

470 pages
Language

English
Publisher

Regnery Publishing, Inc.
Publication date

January 25, 1998
Dimensions

6 x 1 x 9 inches
ISBN-10

0895264471
ISBN-13

978-0895264473
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4.4 out of 5

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REIMANN

Relojes perfectos

Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2020

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Más que Perfectos, dados los precios.

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Arave

Buy it

Reviewed in the United States on March 31, 2020

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Very interesting book

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FML

Five Stars

Reviewed in the United States on November 27, 2015

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Great book

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Dayton Lavon Kitchens

An Outstandingly Good Book Even More Relevant Today than it was 21 years ago

Reviewed in the United States on September 23, 2017

I thought I had reviewed this book a decade or more ago but I suppose I was wrong. There are five scenarios involved about future military conflicts directly impacting the United States and most of them don't end all that well. Four of them involve nuclear weapons. Though I had not noticed before in the scenario involving a remilitarized, aggressive Japan it is heavily implied that the Japanese Defense Minister at the end stages a coup and launches nuclear weapons at the United States (as he had just stated that Japan should).

The North Korea/China and Iran scenarios are even more on point today than when they were written in 1996 given what we know about the nuclear weapons programs by North Korea and Iran. They could literally happen tomorrow rather easily.

Likewise the Mexico scenario where massive unrest there and spillover violence in to the southern U.S. prompts a U.S. invasion could quite easily happen at almost any time.

This leaves the aggressive Russia and remilitarized Japan.

The aggressive Russia scenario is frustrating because it leaves you hanging as to what happens with the Americans attempting to rapidly deploy and ABM system (and not having it yet finished) and the Russians preparing to launch nuclear weapons against two American targets (one military, one civilian) to see if the American system really works. The Russians are also anticipating possible American retaliation. A message two years later indicates that the U.S. (and the world) survives but gives no details.

One can infer from various portions earlier in the book that

1) The U.S. ABM system does in fact work, at least partially and it convinces the Russians to attempt no more nuclear attacks.
2) Very early in the scenario it is said that sea launch cruise missiles might be able to penetrate the Russian system. One can infer that the U.S. did retaliate with sea launched cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads. Probably against some of the Russian ABM sites further degrading the system.

But there are some problems with the scenario:

1) The level of rearming by the Russians would take years. There is no way it could be hidden and it boggles the mind that the U.S. would not take at least some steps to compensate.
2) Political repercussions. It is ridiculous that any American president could regardless of the reasons simply abandon Europe to the Russians with not so much as firing a shot. Even more ridiculous that any American president would ever agree to pay the Russians 100 billion dollars a year in extortion money. At the very least this would prompt a constitutional crisis which would result in the president being impeached and removed from office and a more militaristic Commander in Chief.

The remaining scenario is the remilitarized aggressive Japan. Again the only major problem is that the Japanese conventional military build up would take DECADES to build to that level and both a conventional build up and most especially Japan building nuclear weapons would send shockwaves across Asia certainly prompting reaction long before it reached the level it does in the scenario.

In terms of conventional military buildup alone, at one point early in the war Japan deploys no less than FIVE supercarriers as the heart of their naval armada. Such a force plus their escorts and the advanced "stealth submarines" would certainly take years to construct and even longer to mode into an effective military force despite Japan's industrial muscle.

But with three out of five scenarios literally "could happen tomorrow" and the other two dangerous ominous, this is a book well worth reading.

The overall thrust of the book though is that the U.S. was foolish to radically downsize its military and most especially its R & D efforts, overseas basing structure, and intelligence networks in the aftermath of Operation: Desert Storm.

And I agree fully.

5 people found this helpful

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john pidgeon

Cap was correct in his predictions.

Reviewed in the United States on February 25, 2022

Must read. He predicted everything that has come to pass, now exacerbated by the feckless Joe Biden.

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tennis maestro

This isn't Romeo and Juliet. Fictionalised launch scenario's that capture nuclear conflict.

Reviewed in the United States on February 13, 2021

This isn't Romeo and Juliet. Fictionalised nuclear launch scenario's that capture the frightening power of global nuclear conflict. Five stars.

One person found this helpful

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One Man Gang

Stands the test of time

Reviewed in the United States on April 1, 2011

I recently reread the book and was impressed at how accurate many of the scenarios turned out to be. Even the admittedly unlikely war with Japan was precipitated by the sort of unrest we are now seeing the the Mid-East. Iran and Mexico could have been pulled from recent newspapers.

One person found this helpful

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MICHAEL T BAXTER

Dumb.

Reviewed in the United States on June 1, 2017

Idiotic, cartoonish scenarios that defy all rational belief. If Caspar Winberger is this clueless about US military capabilities vs other nations, then it's no wonder our defense budget is so ridiculously high compared to the rest of the world. Apparently it's very easy to present unrealistic scenarios as real possibilities and fool gullible senators, congressmen and taxpayers alike.

This is a highly amateurish book and laughable to any serious military buff. The Russia scenario was particularly laughable. I think the GI Joe movie plot was more realistic.

3 people found this helpful

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