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Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change Paperback – April 14, 2009
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In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us.
“Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.”
Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.
As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.”
Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
- Print length136 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherChelsea Green Publishing
- Publication dateApril 14, 2009
- Dimensions5 x 0.28 x 8.03 inches
- ISBN-101603580891
- ISBN-13978-1603580892
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There is a similarity between this book and a MIT study "The Limits to Growth" (1974). Limits to Growth, I believe, heavily impacted David and Bill. Bill has a 30 hour lecture entitled "Surviving the Crash: Economic Strategies for Community Survival and Development" from back in the day. 30 years later the Limits to Growth study was revisited by the same scientists to chart how accurate they were; they were spot on in 2004. More recently other scientists have tackled the MIT study 45 years after the fact to discover: the 1972 results were still on point. My assertion is that Holmgren wrote this particular book in 2009 continuing to use "Limits to growth" as part of the foundation for his own conclusion as well as more importantly his most recent treatise Retrosuburbia. Peppered within Holmgren's short-term/long-term solutions I find the Jim McKnight's "A procrastinator's guide to a simple living"(2001) and a paper entitled "Downshifting in Australia" (2003) left their DNA into the pages of both of David's writings as well. David lists Downshifting as a reference, I'm not accusing him of intellectual theft. I appreciate his openness for where different ideas he has come from.
Future Scenarios is a short book. It serves as a meaningful breadcrumb along the way towards Retrosuburbia. In a recent interview with Morag Gamble during the launch of Retro, David shows his insight to what is happening in society and that he is still on it. In Future Scenarios(2009) David was already lamenting about issues that we are only finding ourselves in today. For me David has been the preeminent philosopher of this movement. Respect.
Reviewed in the United States on November 27, 2021
There is a similarity between this book and a MIT study "The Limits to Growth" (1974). Limits to Growth, I believe, heavily impacted David and Bill. Bill has a 30 hour lecture entitled "Surviving the Crash: Economic Strategies for Community Survival and Development" from back in the day. 30 years later the Limits to Growth study was revisited by the same scientists to chart how accurate they were; they were spot on in 2004. More recently other scientists have tackled the MIT study 45 years after the fact to discover: the 1972 results were still on point. My assertion is that Holmgren wrote this particular book in 2009 continuing to use "Limits to growth" as part of the foundation for his own conclusion as well as more importantly his most recent treatise Retrosuburbia. Peppered within Holmgren's short-term/long-term solutions I find the Jim McKnight's "A procrastinator's guide to a simple living"(2001) and a paper entitled "Downshifting in Australia" (2003) left their DNA into the pages of both of David's writings as well. David lists Downshifting as a reference, I'm not accusing him of intellectual theft. I appreciate his openness for where different ideas he has come from.
Future Scenarios is a short book. It serves as a meaningful breadcrumb along the way towards Retrosuburbia. In a recent interview with Morag Gamble during the launch of Retro, David shows his insight to what is happening in society and that he is still on it. In Future Scenarios(2009) David was already lamenting about issues that we are only finding ourselves in today. For me David has been the preeminent philosopher of this movement. Respect.
It would be an ideal planning resource for a rural based intentional community and in particular one that has embraced permaculture principles.
The book is short but dense, in the sense that every sentence and diagram needs to be considered and understood.
David Holmgren explores the four scenarios that could each represent our most likely future, depending on how well and how quickly the world's political leaders deal with this greatest challenge humanity has ever faced.
This quote from the back cover explains it well: "Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign 'Green Tech' scenario to the near catastrophic `Lifeboats' scenario." Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change
Encouragingly, the G8 have recently adopted the target of reducing emissions recommended by the world's climate scientists for not exceeding the critical 2ºC of average global warming ([...]). It remains to be seen whether individual countries will do the same.
I was prepared for another hard-to-read book similiar to the author's previous book: Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability . I found that book extremely difficult to get through, although it was filled with many great ideas. I can't say I'd recommend that book to anyone outside the sustainability field. My recommendation for learning about Permaculture remains Introduction to Permaculture by Bill Mollison (pricey but by far the best).
When I started reading Future Scenarios, I was delighted to find that he must now either have a new editor or a ghost writer - This is an amazing book, relatively easy to read, and filled with ideas and perspectives on the future convergence of Peak Oil and Climate Change that I haven't read anywhere else.
I can easily recommend this book for all audiences, both experienced and those new to these concepts. I even gave this to my father to read as an introduction to Peak Oil. After reading this, he now wants to learn about Permaculture!
Top reviews from other countries
I highly recommend this book.




