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Investor's Library: Top-down Strategies

John Schroy
The list author says: "When you think the boat is going to sink, don't waste time considering the price of a cruise or the quality of the staterooms.

This, in a nutshell, it the essence of top-down investment strategy. Capital markets tend to have a high degree of covariance, or, in other words, investors watch the behavior of other investors and prices often move in tandem.

Here is a selection of books that deal with this topic."
The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
"Perhaps no unproven economic theory has caused more harm than the Efficient Market Hypothesis.  This book explores the idea of rational markets, a favored concept of academics, that, despite little scientific evidence, has resulted in much misguided investment behavior."
Active Index Investing: Maximizing Portfolio Performance and Minimizing Risk Through Global Index Strategies
Active Index Investing: Maximizing Portfolio Performance and Minimizing Risk Through Global Index Strategies
"When divorced from the discredited Efficient Market Hypothesis, index funds can be an effective tool for cost-effective, diversified, top-down investment strategies. Like all investment vehicles, there is more to index funds than may appear at first glance. This book provides a text-book approach to the use of index funds and is a useful addition to any investor's library."
Dividends and Dividend Policy
Dividends and Dividend Policy
"An understanding of dividends and dividend policy is essential. Economists do not agree on the value of dividends. Analysts, like John Burr Williams and Benjamin Graham, valued dividends. Academics, like Miller and Modigliani, saw dividends as irrelevant. This books presents an overview of dividend theory."
Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis (Lib Works Ludwig Von Mises CL)
Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis (Lib Works Ludwig Von Mises CL)
"Socialism is a political movement that is contrary to the interests of investors. This classical work describes why this is so and should be in every investor's library. The virus of socialism is insidious and endemic throughout the world and easily misleads investors."
Devil Take the Hindmost:  a History of Financial Speculation
Devil Take the Hindmost: a History of Financial Speculation
"The top-down investors must have a firm grasp of the history of financial speculation and booms and busts. This book describes the recurring psychology of booms and busts going back hundreds of years."
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West
The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West
"Niall Ferguson is an excellent economic historian who is not afraid to draw large, and often controversial conclusions. A top-down investor should cultivate a broad view of historical change and look for the rise and fall of national hegemony. This book serves this purpose."
Basic Economics:  A Common Sense Guide to the Economy
Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide to the Economy
"The top-down investor should have a general understanding of economics and capital markets. This book by conservative economist Thomas Sowell, meets this purpose, while avoiding the didacticism of a text book."
The Coming Population Crash: and Our Planet's Surprising Future
The Coming Population Crash: and Our Planet's Surprising Future
"Investment markets are inextricably tied to changes in population. Long-term, top-down investors cannot avoid questions of shifting demographics. This book provides well-researched food for thought."
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto)
"This important book reminds investors of the role of chance in capital markets. Often the expectations of Modern Portfolio Theory are brought to earth by misinterpretations of probability theory. In this book, Nicholas Taleb discusses so-called Black Swan events."