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Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor

Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor

bySeth A. Klarman
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Top positive review

Positive reviews›
Poon King
5.0 out of 5 starsHoly Grail of Investing
Reviewed in the United States on January 7, 2007
I am an alumni of the Value Investing program at Columbia Business School and I heard Seth Klarman speak at one of our lectures, so I decided to get my hands on this book. After months of waiting I finally managed to read this book in my local library in a special locked room, since this book is #1 on the theft list. All I can say it is nearest to the Holy Grail of Investing as you can get. I have applied most of his principles to my own investments and the results have been nothing short of spectacular (albeit a short time frame). No wonder the author (who owns the rights) doesn't want to publish the book again. He wants to keep his methods a secret. Just look at Klarman's track record at Baupost!!

It is rumored that ex-CBS Value Investing alums such as Louis Bacon, Leon Cooperman, William Von Mueffling and even Warren Buffett has a copy. This book is worth its weight in gold.
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70 people found this helpful

Top critical review

Critical reviews›
Vero
3.0 out of 5 starsToo general. Not enough details. Subpar overall.
Reviewed in the United States on March 6, 2011
Warren Buffett once said that value investing can't be taught. If the concept does not resonate with you the first time that you are exposed to it, it probably never will and you will never become a true value investor. So if you are ready to pay close to $1,000 for a book on value investing, I am afraid that the Chairman was right one more time and very little enlightenment will come from reading this book.

Joke apart, the book is decent not great. I would recommend "The Intelligent Investor" and other books by Joel Greenblatt and Bruce Greenwald over it.

The book is divided in three parts: (1) why it is hard to make money in the markets, (2) what is the philosophy of value investing, (3) where to look for value investing opportunities.

The first part addresses the common themes of why speculators lose money, why Wall Street is tilted against you, and why indexing will only deliver subpar results. The author concludes that only value investing will deliver solid profits in the long run while limiting your downside risks.

The second part elaborates on the philosophy of value investing. It revisits the ideas of "Mr. Market" proposed by Ben Graham and the analogy between baseball and investing made by Warren Buffett. "Investing is like a pitching game where the referee does not keep track of balls and strikes, strikes in particular. Just swing when the perfect pitch that you can handle comes along". The core principles of value investing are then discussed. It is a bottom up approach where the investor focuses on absolute risk and downside risk. Finally, three valuation methods are briefly examined.

The third and last part of the book gives examples of where to look for value investing opportunities. The usual themes of spin-offs, arbitrage, and bankruptcy are visited one more time.

So who should read this book? Perhaps someone who starts his investment career and would like to read a general audience book about value investing. Someone already familiar with the concept will not learn much from the book especially because there are very few concrete examples about the topics discussed.

The lack of example is in my opinion the main weakness of the book. Value investing is after all not a difficult concept to understand, albeit few people follow the strategy in practice. So the marginal contribution of a book on value investing that does not delve into details can only be limited.

I would rather suggest books by Ben Graham. "The Intelligent Investor" to start; "How to Interpret Financial Statements" to continue; and "Security Analysis" for an in-depth treatment of the topic of valuation. I also enjoyed reading books by Joel Greenblatt "You can be a stock market genius" or by Bruce Greenwald "Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett and Beyond". Both authors provide clear illustrations of value investing at work.

Good luck in your quest for betterment and knowledge and by the way, the book is available free on-line. So no need to spend the $1,000 unless you want it as a collectible.
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70 people found this helpful

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From the United States

Poon King
5.0 out of 5 stars Holy Grail of Investing
Reviewed in the United States on January 7, 2007
Verified Purchase
I am an alumni of the Value Investing program at Columbia Business School and I heard Seth Klarman speak at one of our lectures, so I decided to get my hands on this book. After months of waiting I finally managed to read this book in my local library in a special locked room, since this book is #1 on the theft list. All I can say it is nearest to the Holy Grail of Investing as you can get. I have applied most of his principles to my own investments and the results have been nothing short of spectacular (albeit a short time frame). No wonder the author (who owns the rights) doesn't want to publish the book again. He wants to keep his methods a secret. Just look at Klarman's track record at Baupost!!

It is rumored that ex-CBS Value Investing alums such as Louis Bacon, Leon Cooperman, William Von Mueffling and even Warren Buffett has a copy. This book is worth its weight in gold.
70 people found this helpful
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Kamonpool jaroonwarodom
5.0 out of 5 stars GREAT BOOK IN MY LIFE
Reviewed in the United States on April 10, 2021
Verified Purchase
Thank you very much. you are very good seller. The most important book change attitude in my life
5 people found this helpful
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Matthew Mondanile
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent
Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2017
Verified Purchase
Excellent book and great service from the third party seller.
6 people found this helpful
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zene gurley
5.0 out of 5 stars Klarman
Reviewed in the United States on April 2, 2015
Verified Purchase
great book . a bit pricey but a great book.
7 people found this helpful
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Dave Loeffel
5.0 out of 5 stars Quick read, great examples
Reviewed in the United States on September 14, 2009
Verified Purchase
I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to get inside the mind of one of the great practitioners of value investing.
11 people found this helpful
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Dennis G.
5.0 out of 5 stars A masterpiece on value investing.
Reviewed in the United States on December 25, 2022
One of the best books to understand the mindset of value investing. This is a must if you want to learn how to be a value investor. The book is so rich in ideas and concepts of value inesting, that you probably need to read it again after you finish it for the first time. A great book that every value investor should read once.
3 people found this helpful
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investingbythebooks
5.0 out of 5 stars Read, reflect and read it again
Reviewed in the United States on January 12, 2013
Everybody knows about Warren Buffett, and Buffett is undoubtedly the most successful value investor of the last 50 years. However, Seth Klarman at Baupost is probably the most prominent value investor of the last 25 years. Baupost was set up in 1982 and has since averaged returns of 20 per cent per year. In this book from 1991 Klarman shares his views on the nature of the equity market, his investment philosophy and the process he employs.

To be able to construct a profitable investment strategy you need to have a substantiated theory of how the market works, what mistakes investors in general do and how you can earn money form the incorrect prices this creates. This is also how Margin of Safety starts. The first of three parts in the book is termed Where Most Investors Stumble. Klarman describes issues like how emotions cloud judgement and focus on returns instead of risk management. He is especially critical of institutions who - due to a relative based investment approach, self-imposed restrictions, specialization into niches, bureaucratic set ups and fear of losing clients - become a combination of closet-indexers and short term focused speculators.

The next two parts of the book describes Klarman's investment philosophy and his process. Value investors are often divided into either the Ben Graham type buying bargains or the Warren Buffett type seeking franchises. Klarman doesn't fit nicely on this scale. The foundation he's building on is clearly Graham - this is how he thinks of Mr Market and of how to use volatility to your advantage, of how to seek deep discounts to always have a margin of safety and finally of that you have to stay within you circle of competence to be able to estimate an intrinsic value and hence know the margin of safety.

In addition to this Klarman adds a few ingredients. One is bottom up allocation. If there are no investments that match Baupost's criteria as a bargain the fund will simply hold money in cash. In this way the valuation of individual securities govern the asset allocation. The other is versatility. Baupost hasn't got sector analyst's, they have organized around "opportunities" and these could show up in several asset classes. Even though equites is the bulk of Baupost investments they will invest in basically anything where they spot selling that isn't governed by the value of the investment. Special situations and distressed debt have been huge contributors to the success of Baupost. Finally I would point to risk aversion. The focus is very much on "winning by not losing". While risk management is nothing new for value investors there is just a more intense scrutiny of all kinds of risk at Baupost than at most other firms. Even the concept of "triggers" is framed, not as something increasing returns as they shorten the time until re-pricing of a bargain, but as a risk minimizer as they shorten the time during which something can happen to the operations of the company that erodes the value.

Margin of Safety is unfortunately out of print and sells at outlandish prices on the second hand market. If you can get your hand on a copy you will find an easy to read text full of wisdom. The third part of the book is slightly denser than the prior two with chapters on thrift conversions, distressed securities etc. The book shows a maturity that you would rather expect of an author in the later part of his career, not one just a few years into it. I don't want to picture any similarities but Klarman's writing is deeply engraved in how I think of investment strategy today.

The flexibility to seek value where it can be found and the willingness to hold cash if there are no bargains around are key lessons for all of us in uncertain times. Read, reflect and read it again.

This is a review by eqtbooks.com
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Vasiliy Zhulin
5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent overview of a risk-averse approach to value investing
Reviewed in the United States on July 26, 2007
This book is one of the hardest finance books to track down today. Published in 1991, it is now out of print, and sells on Amazon and Ebay for over $1000. It is even one of the most-stolen library books, making it very difficult to find a copy to read.

Seth Klarman, the portfolio manager of The Baupost Group, is a very successful practitioner of the value investing strategy. In this book, he sets out to educate the reader on this concept, stressing the advantages of a risk-averse approach. In his introduction, Klarman states that even if this book, as a side effect of educating more people to invest in a more sophisticated manner, causes diminished returns to himself - he considers it well worth it for the public good. While I highly applaud this mentality, it begs the question: why was the book not published again? Considering what I mentioned in the first paragraph, clearly there is significant demand to read it. Anyway, on to the book itself...

"Margin of Safety" is divided into three portions. The first part discusses where most investors make mistakes and stumble - it covers investing vs. speculation, the nature of Wall Street, and how institutional investing results in a short-term performance derby (of which the client is ultimately the loser). It also encapsulates the presented information in a thoughful case study of junk bonds in the 1980s. The second portion of the book introduces the details of the value-investment philosophy, primarily focusing on risk and how it is crucial to invest with a margin of safety. The last part provides useful applicable advice on actually following the value-investment process: where to find investment opportunities, how to invest in these opportunities, and various aspects of overall portfolio management.

Simply put, the book is fantastic. Klarman writes in an amazingly clear manner. His language is neither too simplistic nor overly difficult - just right. I definitely experienced a "wow" feeling when I began reading, after the finance books I have read recently. In addition, Klarman provides a myriad of examples to illustrate the points he brings up, which is very helpful, because it puts a reality spin on his writings.

Don't, however, mistake "clear writing" for "easy content." While the book is clear, precise, and very straight-to-the-point (i.e. there is no useless fluff frequently found in books advocating certain investment approaches), Klarman's content is not trivial. The first and even the second portions of the book are relatively quick and simple - after all, the material presented (a discussion of various common investor mistakes, followed by the basic explanation of value investing) is not overly difficult. The third and last portion of the book, however, is very dense: a lot of information is presented quickly. I actually found myself having to re-read a few of the later chapters multiple times, making sure I understand what Klarman was trying to illustrate. I took notes while reading, so that helped absorb the material - but it still wasn't easy.

This brings me to the only personal gripe I had with the book. There were multiple instances in the later chapters where I wished that Klarman would elaborate more on some of his statements and examples (for instance, calculating NPV for certain businesses, more discussion on thrift institutions, etc.). The author certainly assumes some previous experience, as some of his non-basic explanations are clearly not geared for outright beginners. There was never a point, however, where I felt completely out of the loop. I had to read some portions over again and even look up additional information on the web, but in the end Klarman's words always made sense.

This book is absolutely the best overview of value investing I have ever read or heard. Klarman stresses the importance of carefully evaluating risk (as we often only focus on return) and investing with a margin of safety. He repeats this main point over and over again throughout the entire book. Amazingly, it doesn't feel overly repetitive - but instead, a constant timely reminder of the ideas behind the value investing process. A major theme in the book is that we can't predict the future, and hence we must always be ready for anything - and the only way to do this is to protect our investments with a sufficient margin of safety (essentially investing in a security at a significant discount to underlying value).

Aside from a clear explanation of his investing philosophy, Klarman provides tons and tons of useful practical advice, from how to valuate businesses (he makes sure to distinguish his preferred methods from other widespread strategies) to where to find excellent investment opportunities for value investors. He devotes multiple chapters to discussing the frequently neglected portions of the market where low-risk and potentially high-return investments can be made. In the last two chapters, Klarman takes a step back from discussing individual investments and focuses on overall portfolio management and various alternatives for the individual investor.

One may wonder how applicable some of the specific advice is today. Are thrift conversions really still good places to find hidden value? Maybe not. Is manually calculating the cash flow of a business through the faulty measure of EBITDA still a problem today? Not really, since cash flow statements are now part of the required financial statements for public companies. But a lot of Klarman's essential advice (do your analysis carefully - look behind the numbers) and much of his presented "fertile ground for opportunities" still applies and exists today. Furthermore, the wonderful thing about value investing is that it is contrarian in its nature - which essentially implies that, as investments in various portions of the market come in cycles, a value investor can patiently wait for a popular area to "overflow", collapse, and offer excellent opportunities to invest while the herds of investors shy away and sell out. So even if some of Klarman's hunting grounds may seem outdated right now, they will again be attractive in the future.

One thing to note is that each chapter contains a set of footnotes. I advise the reader not to ignore these - they sometimes contain interesting examples and valuable advice. Unfortunately, they are easy to skip, as they're not printed at the bottom of the page which references the footnote, but rather at the back of each chapter.

In conclusion, I highly recommend Klarman's book to... anyone, really! Seasoned veterans will undoubtedly find excellent insight into things that may have before seemed ordinary and trivial. Beginners will learn fantastic advice that may help steer them away from poor decisions made by many inexperienced investors today. I personally don't think it is worth paying the market price for the book today just to read it (although many may argue that even the going price is at a huge discount from the underlying value) - but I suggest trying to obtain the book through an Inter-Library Loan. It may take some time and effort to find a copy, but it's well worth it.

Pros:
+ clear and concise writing, no fluff
+ lots and lots of illustrative examples
+ very clear explanation of the basic concept of value investing and a margin of safety
+ useful methods for researching and valuating a business
+ tremendous amount of applicable advice on finding and analyzing investment opportunities
+ lots of other real-world advice on various topics from portfolio management to money manager selection

Cons:
- last portion of the book is dense, may require careful reading and re-reading
- a small portion of the material may be slightly out of date (don't let this deter you)
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Bahram Assadollahzadeh
5.0 out of 5 stars Margin of Safety is an excellent investor guide because it focuses on how to succeed by not failing
Reviewed in the United States on May 4, 2019
The book is comprised of three main parts:

Part 1: Just like Charlie Munger's saying "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there", Seth Klarman devotes the first part of the book to highlight how most investors stumble:
- confusing speculation with investing,
- falling victim to Wall Street,
- failing to understand advisor's incentives,
- short-term orientation, and
- emotions and faulty behavioral biases.

Part 2: Here Seth Klarman explains the core fundamentals of value investing:
- understanding risk,
- focusing on minimizing risks first as opposed to focusing on returns,
- the importance of bottom-up fundamental analysis
- the importance of a margin of safety,
- the need for discipline to avoid many unattractive temptations,
- the need for patience to wait for the right opportunities, and
- the need for judgment to distinguish between the two.

Part 3: In the final part of the book the author what a value-oriented investment process looks like and where investors may begin to search for attractive opportunities.
It doesn't promise investment fortunes but if followed thoroughly it will certainly keep investors away from misery. On top, it is highly likely to make investors wealthy over time.
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hardcore
5.0 out of 5 stars Want to Invest Like Seth? Look at his 13F File to the SEC.
Reviewed in the United States on June 3, 2013
If you want to invest like Seth but can't afford his book, just look up Baupost's 13F on Edgar.gov website. It's free and lists all of his latest holdings from the previous qtr. You can do this with other famous investors too such as Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Fund or Mohnish Pabrai's Pabrai Investment Fund. The 13F filing form is a very important tool for investing. I still would not just invest in any of their stocks without further researching them but it is a great start.

Whalewisdom is another website where you can get a more user friendly 13F forms to review.
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