I am a big fan of Taleb's Dynamic Hedging book as well as "Fooled by Randomness". I really enjoyed his pragmatic approach to risk management and probabilities. It still resonates with me when he explained that over information (checking the value of your 401K portfolio everyday) will make you prone to see more noise than signal (fluctuations in the short term overwhelm the long term). So I was waiting anxiously to read his new book.
Oh boy, what an embarrassing document. The book is very short on insights and long on personal anecdotes of somebody that do not have to worry about providing the next meal for his family. Taleb has become a pedantic armchair iconoclast detached for any society not related to the U.S or ancient civilizations.
He possesses the truth on everything and he shows how the world is against him but he is right. He criticizes everybody that it's easy to criticize: Central Banks, Investment Bankers, Governments, U.S. Healthcare, Technology, Newspapers. He loves dropping names as well as referencing old books and most of the evidence he provides are from his life experience. Moreover, the book is a continuous contradiction in which he states that controlled shocks and pains make the antifragile system stronger but he never praised when the Fed let Lehman and Bear Stearns fail, what a better way to show pain? or he says that he wants to write a book with no technology, like ancient people did. I guess he has not seen the change in quality of life of people since the printing press was invented. Or realizing that I just pay him over $20 dollars for an electronic edition that I couldn't be able to purchase if I were waiting for his handwritten version to be delivered. He hates journalism and newspaper but he owes all his fame to them. Using Nate Silver's analogy he is a Hedgehog and he is famous because "There are some academics who are quite content to be relatively anonymous. But there are other people who aspire to be public intellectuals, to be pretty bold and to attach non-negligible probabilities to fairly dramatic change. That's much more likely to bring your attention".
Sadly, Mr. Taleb sees himself as a mix between Chuck Norris and The most interesting man in the world. "I don't usually lift weights, but when I do, I'll do it better than anybody else". When Alexander Bell invented the telephone he had 3 missed calls from Nassim Taleb's cellphone.
It will be nice to see Mr. Taleb walking the walk. For example, since he makes so much money in the markets, I would love that he post his trades and predictions so we can learn more about how to exploit this system so easily as he does.
The book is like one of those Mission Impossible movies in which Tom Cruise is on screen 90% of the movie showing you how awesome he is and how he can beat the evil system. If you like that kind of movies, this is your book